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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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If this materialises, many peeps could see more thunder-days, in a five-day period, than in the whole of last summer? Though, having said that, ONE is hardly a tough total to beat!🤣

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The 6z operational tried to become wintry across the north, well, as wintry as it's possible to get in early may..fighting a losing battle.

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GFS continues to look rather unsettled and right out to the end of the run from mid week with a deep upper trough arriving from western UK, SE and London should cling on to some warmth and dryness but all areas should become under the influence of the trough by weekend. Need to make the most of the next 2 days.       

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An 'interesting' end to the FV3: :oldgrin:

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And, as for the Ensemble? For a moment there, I thought I was looking at post-Brexit growth-predictions!:oops:

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Not bad:oldgood:

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Looking at the extended GEFS 6z mean there are hints of improvement near the end, running through the perturbations there is some support for high pressure but before that it currently looks like a prolonged changeable / unsettled and compared to the current heat, much cooler outlook probably dominated by sunshine and heavy showers with occasionally more persistent rain and breezy / windy periods.

21_378_500mb.png

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Yes Karl things more unsettled for perhaps 10 days, before  I think pressure rises and things become warmer and more settled. So perhaps rather than some saying... Make the most of the next 2 days, it should be, make the most of the next 10 day's rainfall, because we are staring down the barrel of a long dry spring and even drier long summer!! Another 4+ months of many fine and very warm spells me thinks 👍😉

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11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So perhaps rather than some saying... Make the most of the next 2 days, it should be, make the most of the next 10 day's rainfall, because we are staring down the barrel of a long dry spring and even drier long summer!! Another 4+ months of many fine and very warm spells me thinks 👍😉

Exactly, the current weather seems to be a carbon copy of this time last year.  In fact, the CFS v2 summer forecast almost looks a carbon copy of last year, too!  May and June in particular look very warm/hot and dry with July potentially pretty good, also.  August perhaps not so good, but that’s a long way off anyway.

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Posted (edited)

The high res sat image at midday and the upper and medium cloud showing up on the Camborne sounding And potentially unstable from 3000-10,000 ft?

modis.thumb.JPG.550f6cabc86bd479dd78ded984e2e7d1.JPG2019042212.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.b9648444c93689f4a4492428b2b65b2a.gif

Edited by knocker

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Exactly, the current weather seems to be a carbon copy of this time last year.  In fact, the CFS v2 summer forecast almost looks a carbon copy of last year, too!  May and June in particular look very warm/hot and dry with July potentially pretty good, also.  August perhaps not so good, but that’s a long way off anyway.

Point well made Don, I think Mike Poole is seeing a similar scenario. Would be completely amazing if this summer was a repeat of last year! Statistically its unlikely, but like you will be aware, these are not normal times. 👍

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Posted (edited)

Now into high Res so Net-wx take on tomorrow's Cape. Will likely change and the good old radar will be the one to watch as usual..

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Edited by Polar Maritime

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Nowt much new, with the GFS...Thursday still looks unsettled with average temps:

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Just how haywire will the longer-term outlook go, though?

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The ukmo 12h shows improvement in the weather by T+144 hours, especially further s / se.👍

UW144-21.gif

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The ukmo 12h shows improvement in the weather by T+144 hours, especially further s / se.👍

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GFS 12Z is trending in the same direction, Karl -- it could 'waft' after all?:oldgood:

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational this could turn into an interesting week with bands of heavy thundery rain pushing north at times and turning chilly enough for snow on higher hills in the north..it's welcome rain which will put out all those moor fires that were probably started deliberately!

Edited by Frosty.

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20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GFS 12Z is trending in the same direction, Karl -- it could 'waft' after all?:oldgood:

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bods, I see the laughing smiley is back? who had the giggles? essex snowman I think

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I'm glad to see the threat of prolonged cold dreichness reduce; a much more benign run (so far!) -- once the thunderstorms are out of the way!:oldgood:

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Posted (edited)

Arctic Northerly from the 6z gone, surprise surprise and replaced with a warmer southerly into the early days of may on the 12z.

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Edited by Frosty.

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The goodness for that...The 12Z ends on a much more positive note than the 06Z did!:yahoo:

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Let's just hope that the FV3 does likewise?

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Posted (edited)

The 12z para also indicates some weak ridging for the south at the weekend, especially on sunday but probably no more than a suckers gap in the generally unsettled disturbed pattern which cranks up again into the following week but I would suggest the south has the best chance of drier, brighter and warmer interludes during the upcoming unsettled and much cooler phase.

Edited by Frosty.

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I'm thinking that Tuesday and Wednesday nights'll both be warm...CET could even go above 9C?

image.thumb.png.329ef721fa7d90fde6430249ba7fcebb.pngimage.thumb.png.a8d5592e6aaf89a3489f59aff4c63d3e.png :oldgood:

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Posted (edited)

Sunday's 'suckers' gap' to be followed by convection heaven?🌩️:yahoo:

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Edited by Ed Stone

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Looking longer term the GEFS 12z mean is much better isn't it folks.🌞👍

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