Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Perhaps all not lost! Icon making a decent job of having that stubborn cold pool over us till the end of the run perhaps! 

That's more of an annoying  cool / cold pool than anything worthwhile. roll on summer if that's as good as it's going to get, it's either freakishly cold uppers or i 'm rapidly losing interest.

Edited April 5, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Now that's a cold pool..Nothing wishy washy about the Ukmo 12h @ T+144

Edited April 5, 2019 by Frosty.

[johnholmes]

For those of us living down the eastern side of any hills then winds off the N Sea at this time of year, 95% of the time=Dull, sometimes damp and cold unpleasant weather=no thanks

 

[Methuselah]

Not quite so nasty, for Tuesday, now...Not great though:

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

For those of us living down the eastern side of any hills then winds off the N Sea at this time of year, 95% of the time=Dull, sometimes damp and cold unpleasant weather=no thanks

 

Agree, this location suffers the most with north sea mist and drizzle/ everywhere else sunny and mist here often not lifted post 2pm if at all

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree, this location suffers the most with north sea mist and drizzle/ everywhere else sunny and mist here often not lifted post 2pm if at all

It's certainly not funny haar haar but I'm not going to frett about it..just wait and sea what happens

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO at 144 delevering the goods, gfs 12z tending to drag its feet with it... Is it coming home or what! 

[Methuselah]

In the depths of winter, charts like these would have us running for the Tenna Man packets...Not so, when Spring's only just around the corner, however:

 

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

UKMO at 144 delevering the goods, gfs 12z tending to drag its feet with it... Is it coming home or what! 

These weather patterns are like a knife edge given the effects of the smallest change in the allignment to the high to our north...

We could either get a cold easterly or the cold air could pour out over the far east of Europe and we are left with mild SSE winds...

Whereas if this was January we would probably be seeing guaranteed cold.

I still think mild air is the favourite but maybe I'm biased given my CET estimate for April  

[Frosty.]

36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Now that's a cold pool..Nothing wishy washy about the Ukmo 12h @ T+144

I may be wrong but if this potential keeps counting down (BIG IF) we will soon see a change in wording on future updates...next week is going to become colder but I don't know how cold at this stage but I'm managing expectations.

Edited April 5, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wowzer, gfs going all out Spanish plume!!!!! 

Edited April 5, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

Possibly some convection of the warmer kind:

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

These weather patterns are like a knife edge given the effects of the smallest change in the allignment to the high to our north...

We could either get a cold easterly or the cold air could pour out over the far east of Europe and we are left with mild SSE winds...

Whereas if this was January we would probably be seeing guaranteed cold.

I still think mild air is the favourite but maybe I'm biased given my CET estimate for April  

I think the gfs 12z is agreeing with you QS, it's gone from Russia with love, to from Spain with mosquitos!!

[Frosty.]

Interesting comparison between (for example) the 12z parallel and ukmo @ T+144 hours, the parallel shows a very slack flow whereas the ukmo shows a strong Easterly drawing very cold air across the uk.

Edited April 5, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Good to see things start to look more Springlike:

  

[Frosty.]

The strength of the Easterly is going to be crucial if the very cold air is going to reach the uk later next week, the ukmo is hands down the best potential whereas the Gfs op / parallel and most of the GEFS 12z perturbations in the day 6 timeframe indicate generally light winds and therefore a waste of space as far as a potent cold shot is concerned.

[Frosty.]

Longer term there are certainly hints from the GEFS 12z that high pressure could be close to or over the uk during the Easter holiday period!

[Mike Poole]

From the runs out so far, here are the 850 temps at T156 FV3, GFS and GEM:

And the UKMO at T144:

As Karl notes ^ the UKMO gets the cold air in most effectively, but all show some cold snap of sorts around next Friday.  So still quite a bit of uncertainty remaining with this.

Any road, I hope we can start looking at some summery model output once this snap or spell is in the rear view mirror!

 

Edited April 5, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

Shift from ECM away from the cold shot at T168:

So considerable uncertainty about where we will end up this time next week.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think this is a bust from ECM, and it just sums the long winter season in general, these charts are like a desert mirage!! Everything looks dandy from afar, as soon has it get closer, it all goes balls up and vanishes! 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Shift from ECM away from the cold shot at T168:

So considerable uncertainty about where we will end up this time next week.  

Indeed mike but it's still a strong Easterly compared to the Gfs / Gefs light breeze, it's more in line with the ukmo except the coldest air is considerably further north.

Edited April 5, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Game's up @ T+216..actually before then but meh whatever..sing lady

Edited April 5, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM warming us up... Well done UKMO.... your on your own. 

[Mike Poole]

Just to complete the set here's JMA at T192, with a more direct hit from the cold shot.

So to sum up the 12s, UKMO proper cold shot, ECM easterly incoming but too far north for much of the UK, most of the others in the middle in terms of direction that the cold air impinges the UK.  

Difficult to make a prediction about this time next week given uncertainty, although I think it is not going to deliver much snow down here in the south, the north still up for grabs.  

And then please roll on summer, ECM T240 heading in the right direction, take a while before a UK high is the end result though.

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Game's up @ T+216..actually before then but meh whatever..sing lady

Indeed karl...Looks as if Yuri Geller's been bending the isobars - with the power of his mind!