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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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It is indeed proving to be the case that the models have been over progressive with the eastward intrusion of the trough - too far east (and for too long) General NWP culpability evident - but ju

Hi James - a thoughtful summary and deserves a response ? I think in the context of seasonal wavelength changes in addition to the transition period of the stratosphere to its "summer" position t

Christ alive, its the UK not death valley. We'll have months and months of rain to endure from late July until next May. Chill.

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Looking at the Gfs 00z operational we are still on course for a cooler, cloudier and breezier blip at the weekend, mainly saturday and  overnight frosts are expected for the rest of this week where skies clear and then becoming milder, especially from early next week. There's a lot of high pressure in the outlook but with occasional showery disturbances.

Edited by Frosty.
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First of all, I apologise for going off on one, last night...Sorry Marpantz!:oldgood:

And now back to the weather!

End of the GFS and FV3 00Zs:

image.thumb.png.7262e9b98c6c01f2603e521ecbbd2b4b.pngimage.thumb.png.68bbcf1018134005d534685734d6c6ce.png 

Well, that can't be right: there's a broad similarity between the two!:shok:

And the GEFS ensemble still indicates substantial warming from early next week:

image.thumb.png.e3019a6ccb02f5abee7ef42fbc44b077.png

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8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

A lot of it is hope casting, fuelled by the summer we experienced last year. 

The same happened after winters '09 and' 10. 

When you've recently experienced it, it becomes much more tangible. 

The same is true when you win at casino, you feel you can do it again and again. 

I waited literally 23 years after the summer of 95 for a repeat of something that good! But I was convinced at the time the following summers would be equally has good! Anyway back to the here and now, deep in fi, GFS Para still toying with the idea of arctic shots in the later frames! 

gfs-1-348.png

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39 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And the GEFS ensemble still indicates substantial warming from early next week:

image.thumb.png.e3019a6ccb02f5abee7ef42fbc44b077.png

Best news of the day..so far, can't stand cool cloudy dross!?

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

First of all, I apologise for going off on one, last night...Sorry Marpantz!:oldgood:

And now back to the weather!

Fortunately Pete I wasn't online when it kicked off, but I think Mapantz dealt with the situation correctly. ?

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Unfortunately, I don't see any way around the fact, the upcoming weekend looks like being a right old stinker -- with -6 to -8C uppers in-situ throughout:?

image.thumb.png.465ad1e4d889b4f0e87a52c4b6d89236.pngimage.thumb.png.4a9044032821bba8c7cdb953241d1b1e.png Yuck!

Thankfully it's just a cool blip Ed, better times not far away, ukmo 0h showing the cool fizzling out at day 6.?

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Thankfully it's just a cool blip Ed, better times not far away, ukmo 0h showing the cool fizzling out at day 6.?

UW144-7.gif

You're right enough, Karl: much pleasanter, come Thursday:

image.thumb.png.fa69913d12c59c832ccef2eca9381277.pngimage.thumb.png.9cf8ffa3b4168a20eceb355bd7ea235c.png

 

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The 6z mean portends milder times next week, ergo, more pleasant..I know some prefer cool cloudy crap, each to their own but I'm sure most will be happier when it becomes less cool / milder beyond the cack weekend.?

GFSAVGEU06_156_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_180_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_204_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_228_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_270_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Obviously a long way out, but there could be a chance of thundery rain/showers moving westwards, from the Low Countries, Friday week?

image.thumb.png.ab73f873a715f83f0d21e3ae09bcde97.pngimage.thumb.png.fc6418cca4168c36b0012d019fb63971.png 

And you're right, Crew Cold: there is a lot of hopecasting involved!:yahoo:

It's nae summer yet, folks! image.thumb.png.16bd4d2dd24c1818584614c4f9d1d771.png:shok:

Edited by Ed Stone
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There's some cracking potential for warm / very warm weather on the GEFS 6z both for easter and beyond..charts to follow..watch this space!!:shok:

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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's like a mausoleum in here; it's so empty, in fact, that even Frosty has gone AWOL!:shok:

I'm never far away Ed?

Anyway, a rather cooler interlude coming with easterly winds but weakens early next week as we see a subtle shift in wind direction south of east according to the ukmo 12h..expect some overnight frosts where skies clear with showers spreading into the east and the best of the sunshine further west. Next week is set to become changeable but milder.

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

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