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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

It's an open goal!

Don't tell Choupo-Moting of PSG that...

giphy.gif?cid=790b76115cab5ce24d2f6c782e 

Sums up the winter just gone for coldies!

Given arctic sea ice is taking a battering, maybe northern blocking will be more likely over the next few weeks? Easterly weather prevailing as is more common at this time of the year, alternating between cold and average most likely however. A rather dull and quiet weather pattern in general if you are near the North Sea coast!.

 image.thumb.png.b483c0426c163a1c43367827cbabc921.pngimage.thumb.png.967a72875d16227223d7338116b68cbb.png

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the ukmo 12h the Easterly really gets its act together from T+120 hours and strengthens further and I suspect it would feel very raw, accentuated due to the strength of the winds..all a bit crap compared to winter of course.

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Snow Showers in the SE sat on the GFS now-

67EA0E1C-1719-48F6-8B5B-06E59BDB9716.thumb.png.d2e39450cc52b07313718332068db91c.png

Now that's better, Steve! I'll take the cold so long as it snows...image.thumb.png.fc6744fafaf5447d04b221a440e0093e.png:yahoo:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Now that's better, Steve! I'll take the cold so long as it snows...image.thumb.png.fc6744fafaf5447d04b221a440e0093e.png:yahoo:

I agree Ed, cold without snow is a waste of time at this stage.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Snow Showers in the SE sat on the GFS now-

67EA0E1C-1719-48F6-8B5B-06E59BDB9716.thumb.png.d2e39450cc52b07313718332068db91c.png

Think this weekend has  a lot more potential snow wise especially for eastern and south eastern areas than people think!could be a good covering in a few spots especially around the wash and east anglia!!850s of -8 or -9 should defo give snowfall!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

I was looking at the projected London temps this morning for the week ahead and they never got below a Max of 10c 50f even with an Easterly..

Edited by Frosty.
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Think this weekend has  a lot more potential snow wise especially for eastern and south eastern areas than people think!could be a good covering in a few spots especially around the wash and east anglia!!850s of -8 or -9 should defo give snowfall!

And the clubbers will still go out in bits of nothing! our locations too far inland, seas are too cold for convection to develop over here, shows showers turning to snow Saturday night

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

-10c line creeps closer to the SE tip which would be amazing which would be amazing for April 13th-

Snowfall & cover SAT PM

 

Yes Steve - so much for settling snow not even being possible in the South in mid MARCH!!!!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes Steve - so much for settling snow not even being possible in the South in mid MARCH!!!!

Anyweather was right....if it happens

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

A quick look at the weekend with the gfs

The colder air arrives as the upper trough slips west under the ridge so some widespread frosts Saturday and Sunday morning, And feeling cold during the day with temps below average not helped by the brisk easterly wind. Remaining dry for most areas but showers along eastern coasts

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.1a4eb7d4763299c5a060b9575d8dd406.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_22.thumb.png.c48341f1d0cff2a581c8f37ab692cc17.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_26.thumb.png.41bb5b2751eec18630f53efb6a2b7f5b.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

Anyweather was right....if it happens

Yes, although perhaps a touch exaggerated - still not sure he deserved all the criticism he got.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Right then: snow on Saturday and mid-teens, the following Wednesday? That's Spring alright!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.dadc394cc4e5509987d6f1a108a9b840.pngimage.thumb.png.8d8a245d3f7ca3e71d578e54dede5b31.png 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I was looking at the projected London temps this morning for the week ahead and they never got below a Max of 10c 50f even with an Easterly..

I think you can safely smash a few degrees off the London max temps though, it will definitely be colder than 10c outside of London. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, although perhaps a touch exaggerated - still not sure he deserved all the criticism he got.

Really remarkable ukmo 12h T+144 chart..shame we couldn't get this in winter or even early march, it would have been a major BEAST.

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Woooowww boys and gals, let's not get ahead of ourselves here, absolutely no mention of anything remotely significant from exeter, Infact they talk about a warming trend!! 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Woooowww boys and gals, let's not get ahead of ourselves here, absolutely no mention of anything remotely significant from exeter, Infact they talk about a warming trend!! 

That was before they saw the Gfs / ukmo 12:crazy:

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Woooowww boys and gals, let's not get ahead of ourselves here, absolutely no mention of anything remotely significant from exeter, Infact they talk about a warming trend!! 

like this, this looks better

h850t850eu.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

GFS been throwing out cold scenarios for weeks though Karl, and has yet, I haven't seen one verify! I'm with mogreps on this one.... Even though I've never viewed it!

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Snow Showers in the SE sat on the GFS now-

67EA0E1C-1719-48F6-8B5B-06E59BDB9716.thumb.png.d2e39450cc52b07313718332068db91c.png

Still looks like a sleety mess to me however. If the snow showers pack in during the night or morning then they will fall as snow at favoured lower levels. However if the sun pops out when the showers arrive it may tip temperatures too high for persistent snow showers.

At this time of the year soil temperatures are higher and the strength of the sun greater so this may tip things on the wrong side of marginal. Temperatures would need to drop substantially during passing showers and they would need to be prolonged under light winds.

The UKMO is also cold for the weekend but not so much and I think this would be on the wrong side of marginal. 

Looks like a short and potentially sharp cold snap for the time of the year but things warm up quickly again as the Scandi high sinks to an unfavourable position to bring more cold from the east. Such a scenario could push the April monthly mean to above average.

Alternatively the high could later retrogress to Greenland but that is a long way off.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

This looks promising: image.thumb.png.ccc8db06380e6bb860b693167619a038.png

 Or does it?                 image.thumb.png.88c231f6274fd5269cb53611fa78882e.png 

Not so much:              image.thumb.png.04e5ca55dbd486727de1605be2251a69.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Tbh I think most of the models performed badly... This cold snap though, is literally a blink and you will miss it affair! Infact by the final 3rd of the month I think temps will be nudging 20c...i really want these current charts to verify come the end of the year! But for now, it's nothing more than a nuisance, major low uppers from the North that was flagged up earlier.... Maybe! But this.... Nahhhh

But this below...... Bring it!! 

gfs-1-324 (2).png

Edited by Mapantz
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'll leave this one for the Friends of The North Sea! image.thumb.png.181c3e51d2b5b99c5516df7a4b654c60.png :oldgood:

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