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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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Good chart for a possible reload.

image.thumb.png.37d400933c8becf694c97717db6ed8b6.png

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Posted (edited)

The key pattern change with the ecm starts around t102 with the intense trough (for this time of year) which tracks into the Plains, which  triggers the amplification in the atlantic resulting in the subtropical high ridging north east and building high pressure over Scandinavia. And at t144 > 168 the energy flows have advected colder air south west around the southern flank of the high into France and touching the southern half of the UK  Thus a dry but cold weekend particularly in the south where the temps of around 7-8C will feel a lot colder in the stiff easterly

t102.thumb.png.5bd8b4cf69d517053b374b7c13a2938e.pngt144.thumb.png.e9fbcf36dd6348af002cbf716235443f.pngt168.thumb.png.45deec15a396886a7795a2304b44e04e.png

Edited by knocker

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Quite a sting in the tail from ECM! Still alot to be resolved it seems! 

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144_thickuk.png

168_thickuk.png

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240_thickuk.png

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If you like easterly winds for next ten days and possible longer you are in for a treat possible frost at night too and cloudy days.🤣

D589D269-D17B-4E5E-B7AB-4C4B97AAC65D.png

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If this was winter..boom, if this was a month ago..boom (thinking back 12months to the beast from the east but now it's a bust..not a beast, just nuisance value cool grey unpleasant dross..pass!!

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240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

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By T+276, GFS Para have ceased their black ops mission, and are giving us something a tad less cold:

image.thumb.png.b723ac65b1498e03b2c403c4af3627ad.pngimage.thumb.png.281bb2d68a45da28649df6695a05f3c6.png 

As the Snafia so often say, during the winter months: no pain, no gain?:oldgrin:

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

By T+276, GFS Para have ceased their black ops mission, and are giving us something a tad less cold:

 

As the Snafia so often say, during the winter months: no pain, no gain?:oldgrin:

I think it was arnie who said that Pete! 😉 Bit of a standoff devoloping between ECM, UKMO and GFS me thinks! 

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I think it was arnie who said that Pete! 😉 Bit of a standoff devoloping between ECM, UKMO and GFS me thinks! 

Didn't arnie also say ... Stick around and I'll be back..hopefully that cool easterly cloudy dross won't be back!😜

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It kinda lingers...just like bad smell!💩 image.thumb.png.0b2023c99a033ee66ce0667807dc98f3.png

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Just now, Frosty. said:

Didn't arnie also say ... Stick around and I'll be back..hopefully that cool easterly cloudy dross won't be back!😜

What I think Karl is, if we end up with an Estly feed these coming few months, things could end up very warm and settled into summer, also barring in mind it's a dry air mass!! So less humidity, but I can guarantee come December.... The Estly will diminish just in time for winter!! Yes..... I'LL BE BACK.... JUST NOT IN OUR LIFETIMES!!! 😉👍

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

It kinda lingers...just like bad smell!💩 image.thumb.png.0b2023c99a033ee66ce0667807dc98f3.png

We defo need the terminator to sort that mess out.😁

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Just now, Frosty. said:

We defo need the terminator to sort that mess out.😁

Though, given some of the earlier nonsense (not mentioning any names!) a Kindergarten Cop might even come in useful?😂

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Though, given some of the earlier nonsense (not mentioning any names!) a Kindergarten Cop might even come in useful?😂

I'm trying to put that meltdown behind me Ed..👍

Anyway, interesting output, very recently it looked like the atlantic would crash through next weekend but now the blocking signal is strengthening again, at least on the Ecm..hoping for a better mean tonight.

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Well as long has its the model thread.... Let's have a look at Brazilian model..... It brings the warmth big time.... Perhaps it has a warm bias due to the constant heat in South America!! 👍😉

cptec-1-240.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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Evening All, The Ridge to our North East is getting stronger, enjoyable viewing,,,😎

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Urgh this is depressing!! Is this still an effect of a later ssw?! Or just bad luck, lol! Don't shoot me, still learning!😊

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Posted (edited)

Tonight's extended Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks blocked but gradually less cool and therefore more pleasant with more of a SE'ly tilt to the flow from the continent rather than northern europe  but still a risk of slight overnight frosts.

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

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ECM mean at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.5cd22da7f1796b448c67e9919fba8117.jpg

It might get warmer or it might not.  ECM thinks probably yes, but the uncertainty remains.  Goodnight folks.

 

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29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Though, given some of the earlier nonsense (not mentioning any names!) a Kindergarten Cop might even come in useful?😂

Hello , both models show Blocking to our north east,, Winter has not finished🙄

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I can't imaging why anyone would welcome grey, cloudy days with the chance of wind-driven sleet...Yuck!

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A flip flop back today to what the models were showing on Thursday, heights to the NE more resilient and the atlantic trough held back further west, but unlike Thursday no direct cold NE arctic feed, instead just a cold easterly, the source of air from NW Russia. So a predominantly chilly cloudy week for the east, some rain in the south, driest sunniest and warmest weather unusually reserved for NW - but not that unusual in April - this often happens in an easterly in Spring.

Longer term - won't be surprised to see the trough remain unstuck far to our west and SE, we might see a SE feed, before heights finally retrogress to Greenland and we pull in a cold NE feed, equally we might just see heights build into the UK and westwards, which would result in a warm up, but not especially so, maintaining what could turn out to be a dry month for the NW in particular.

Those on the east coast won't like the outlook at all, sea fret and haar in abundance. 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Those on the east coast won't like the outlook at all, sea fret and haar in abundance. 

For sure it's not funny haar haar but I'm not going to fret about it, just wait and sea what happens.😉

Edited by Frosty.

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32 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A flip flop back today to what the models were showing on Thursday, heights to the NE more resilient and the atlantic trough held back further west, but unlike Thursday no direct cold NE arctic feed, instead just a cold easterly, the source of air from NW Russia. So a predominantly chilly cloudy week for the east, some rain in the south, driest sunniest and warmest weather unusually reserved for NW - but not that unusual in April - this often happens in an easterly in Spring.

Longer term - won't be surprised to see the trough remain unstuck far to our west and SE, we might see a SE feed, before heights finally retrogress to Greenland and we pull in a cold NE feed, equally we might just see heights build into the UK and westwards, which would result in a warm up, but not especially so, maintaining what could turn out to be a dry month for the NW in particular.

Those on the east coast won't like the outlook at all, sea fret and haar in abundance. 

could be 3 sunless weeks here, today was bad enough

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

For sure it's not funny haar haar but I'm not going to fret about it, just wait and sea what happens.😉

Love it. The humour, that is 😂

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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A little ray of hope -- nothing really all that dreich -- even here in Suffolk! The 12Z GEFS ensemble isn't that bad...:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.b742f7fdfe06841da9e3755f9a5efd01.png

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