Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

good if you like sea fret, looks a classic setup where mist lasts post 2pm

but sunny from start to finish for most areas

I don't expect that sea fret'll be too much of a problem; as, what we had here, last Monday morning, was gone by 10 a. m....?   

Edited April 14, 2019 by Ed Stone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

49 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Although it might not be popular for many here, those of us in the east could do with a wet week or so around the end of the month in order to encourage crop/pasture growth and improve river levels.  I for one would be grateful if you could continue to inform us as to whether the expected loss of amplitude of the standing wave remains in the outputs over the next week or so, please.

I can keep you informed on the current weather situation..... Has for the rest.... Bit out of my pay grade..... But I'm sure Mike Poole, singularity and the likes will be glad to help!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Out to nearly day 8 and all is looking peachy with the 12z......is summer about to spring early! 

[Frosty.]

37 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

good if you like sea fret

I wouldn't fret about it, models look increasingly much better later in the week ahead compared to this week, let's just sea what happens, you may be pleasantly surprised.

Edited April 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Most will probably see this as a 'turn for the worse'; those of us needing some rain, may not agree:

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Although it might not be popular for many here, those of us in the east could do with a wet week or so around the end of the month in order to encourage crop/pasture growth and improve river levels.  I for one would be grateful if you could continue to inform us as to whether the expected loss of amplitude of the standing wave remains in the outputs over the next week or so, please.

I think it is looking increasingly unlikely Chris.  Most of the models are showing a northerly tracking jetstream and while there may be some wobbles with that, the area least likely to be affected by rainfall is the SE.  Looking at the longer range forecast models, I think a dry hot summer is most likely for the SE, although slight backtrack from that from GloSea5 this month.  The wildcard may be thunderstorm activity, but that is not likely to kick in until later than the end of month period you are interested in.  

Of course, others may have different views as it is all beyond the reliable timeframe.

Edited April 14, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Polar Maritime]

Severe gales for a select few tonight/early hours..

 

[Methuselah]

All's well that ends well?

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

All's well that ends well?

Now that's what I call ending on a high..note

Edited April 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

I'm not buying the GFS 12z, here T150, T192, T222, T360:

Well, I'll accept the T150 that is plausible and probably expected, but I'd be surprised if the low/trough in the middle period of the run comes off to that extent. Let's see.

Edited April 14, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

I can't really think of a better looking GEFS mean with the Easter holiday just around  the corner.........  perfick timing!

[Methuselah]

Sort of a suggestion that westerlies might break though (T+231) from the FV3...but not all that convincing?

  Only time will tell...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Sort of a suggestion that westerlies might break though (T+231) from the FV3...but not all that convincing?

  Only time will tell...

westerlies rare April to June, if they break through, will be only temporary, until they become more dominant around Wimbledon, best summer period away from the N/W

Edited April 14, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Mike Poole]

It's Sunday, good weather promised but not yet arrived, so a good time for one of my CFS updates.  As most of you will know, a single run of CFS is meaningless, it needs to be considered  probabilisticaly. I'm looking at the outlook for summer, and as (in my opinion) summer is now May, June, July, let's look at what  the model is showing  for that middle month June.  

Here's Z500 height anomaly for the last 8 runs:

The reds are over the UK on every one, the sixth might have us in northerly flow, but it is one of 8.  I think the 2m temperature anomalies are more interesting, here from the last 8 runs, again for June:

 

These charts clearly show a pattern to above average temperatures in UK and Northern Europe and lower than average temperatures in Southern Europe.  Northerly tracking jet stream, I think.  I'm sticking to my earlier thoughts on a hot summer for the UK, possibly with more thundery interludes than last year.  A way out yet though, we will see.   

Chart below is not relevant but I can't seem to get rid of it!

Edited April 14, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

westerlies rare April to June, if they break through, will be only temporary, until they become more dominant around Wimbledon, best summer period away from the N/W

At least Easter looks nice, not concerned about beyond that as most will be back at work and as we know, FI flip flops..models look great for the upcoming holiday which is the most important thing in my opinion.

[Methuselah]

23 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

westerlies rare April to June, if they break through, will be only temporary, until they become more dominant around Wimbledon, best summer period away from the N/W

I really wouldn't call westerlies rare, 252 -- not in any season -- maybe 'less common' would be a better phrase?

Anywho, the tail-end of the FV3 doesn't seem to be going anywhere in particular:

 

The ensemble appears to have lost any indication of anything too cold:

Edited April 14, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

As I said before, the most important thing is that Easter looks very nice and looking even further ahead towards the end of april the GEFS 12z mean doesn't look bad at all, there is some fine and warm potential..maybe a warm start to May with the azores high ridging in?

Edited April 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[Don]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Out to nearly day 8 and all is looking peachy with the 12z......is summer about to spring early! 

 

Of course it is and I suspect it will outstay its welcome come end of September!

Edited April 14, 2019 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

@Mike Poole you say summer in your opinion is May, June, July, but August is very often the month that throws up the most heat! So I would say very much a main summer month? 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Of course it is and I suspect it will out stay its welcome come end of September!

End of September? We gonna be breaking some records if that holds firm Don!

[Don]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

@Mike Poole you say summer in your opinion is May, June, July, but August is very often the month that throws up the most heat! So I would say very much a main summer month? 

Mid-July to mid-August is the peak time for potential heat.

[ICE COLD]

High pressure losing control by day 8 on the ECM . I’m with a few others on here we need rain the ground is so dry here . 

[Don]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

End of September? We gonna be breaking some records if that holds firm Don!

Yep and I wouldn't be at all surprised sadly, going by how this year has gone so far.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Don said:

Mid-July to mid-August is the peak time for potential heat.

Yeh, that's what I thought, August last year run out of steam, but is very often a time of the year when heat records can be smashed.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

@Mike Poole you say summer in your opinion is May, June, July, but August is very often the month that throws up the most heat! So I would say very much a main summer month? 

The thing about August is it often brings some autumnal september type atlantic weather which is possibly what mike was thinking?..anyway the Ecm 12z is a beauty, becomes warmer and warmer with plenty of sunshine and high pressure, warmest possibly Easter Monday further e / se?