Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This looks all white to me..well, mostly!

And this is sure to verify...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This looks all white to me..well, mostly!

similar to this, saw some snow, more confident of snow now than Dec to Feb

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And this is sure to verify...

And the high res version wouldn't look as good but that's a minor detail.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

similar to this, saw some snow, more confident of snow now than Dec to Feb

If we can't get snow during December to March then what's the point! Occasionally there will be some wintry showers in April, but it's never gonna cause any issues! We had snow and ice galore in 09, we had it in buckets in 2010, we had it December 2017, and again in feb/March 2018, and plenty in the south had it in Jan this year! So I fail to see how it's not really happening.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

If we can't get snow during December to March then what's the point! Occasionally there will be some wintry showers in April, but it's never gonna cause any issues! We had snow and ice galore in 09, we had it in buckets in 2010, we had it December 2017, and again in feb/March 2018, and plenty in the south had it in Jan this year! So I fail to see how it's not really happening.

experts will know, not me but seems obvious, Dec to Mar sees deep aggressive PV, to our NW, aggressive jet and Atlantic, and cold eastern US, zonal train cannot ease, only transient cold shots for northern hills behind lows

by April all that weakens, and we get opposite setup

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

experts will know, not me but seems obvious, Dec to Mar sees deep aggressive PV, to our NW, aggressive jet and Atlantic, and cold eastern US, zonal train cannot ease, only transient cold shots for northern hills behind lows

by April all that weakens, and we get opposite setup

You are simply just pointing out the normal though! The jet won't always be raging, the vortex won't always be sitting over canada! Low solar will result in a weaker jet, and more frequent SSWS will enhance cold risk leading to the upper winds being reversed! Its easy to point out that zonal is our default weather type... 

[Methuselah]

I do prefer the end of the FV3 to that of the Op: 

GEFS takes a definite dip toward its end...the Op and Control are both on the cold side of the pack:

                                                                          

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z operational is going for a gradual warm  up next week as winds become more ESE'ly from a warming continent..looks fine too with high pressure controlling things.

Edited April 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z operational is going for a gradual warm  up next week as winds become more ESE'ly from a warming continent..looks fine too with high pressure controlling things.

 

 

 

Aye, will be great big if though, the fret and haar clears, often takes past 2pm here

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, will be great big if though, the fret and haar clears, often takes past 2pm here

It's a fine line between north sea filth and warm sunshine, the Ecm 12z op (ESE'ly) unlike the ukmo (E'ly), stays just the right side of the line next week.

Edited April 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's a fine line between north sea filth and warm sunshine, the Ecm 12z op, unlike the ukmo, stays just the right side of the line.

Aye but surely the warmer the air, with cold seas in late April creates more mist?

where as a setup like this in August, (virtually impossible it seems) should create less mist with warm sea

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye but surely the warmer the air, with cold seas in late April creates more mist?

where as a setup like this in August, (virtually impossible it seems) should create less mist with warm sea

Well the  850's are better as you say, and the north sea is currently 8c north of the wash, as to the actual surface conditions i'm not sure but to me it looks like becoming milder next week apart from on the east coastal strip..I think inland areas would see some warm sunshine, the more SE'ly the flow, the better obviously.

Edited April 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's a fine line between north sea filth and warm sunshine, the Ecm 12z op (ESE'ly) unlike the ukmo (E'ly), stays just the right side of the line next week.

It's an even finer line, between North Sea filth and even more North Sea filth!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Now we're in April though, setups like this seem to get less frequent now until Oct, late April 30 degrees could be close, mid June to mid Aug proper hot

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's an even finer line, between North Sea filth and even more North Sea filth!

Indeed Ed, I'm just trying to look on the bright side which may not necessarily be the right side.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

You are simply just pointing out the normal though! The jet won't always be raging, the vortex won't always be sitting over canada! Low solar will result in a weaker jet, and more frequent SSWS will enhance cold risk leading to the upper winds being reversed! Its easy to point out that zonal is our default weather type... 

Yes, and he also forgets that half of our snow setups come from within normal winter setups anyway, and more often than not toned down winter Synoptics in April rarely deliver meaningful snow. The white stuff becomes less likely in April - period. We’ve got quite a standard winter easterly synoptic over the next few days and it will be a bit chilly at best.

Meanwhile, it looks like warming up next week so thank heavens. 

[Summerstorm]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Last year we was about to enter a protracted spell of fine warm condition, and these conditions held firm til literally August. The chances of that same pattern repeating this year, I would put at about 10%. You can't see a pattern emerging now, and come to a conclusion that things are now setting up for the rest of the summer based on that fact alone! For instance high pressure can set up in May bringing a 2 week heatwave.... And the rest of the summer can turn Into a washout! It's nigh on impossible to draw to any conclusions at range, has you have already kind of stated. Has regards to a more unsettled type of conditions, there are some signs, and even exeter have backed away from settled and warmer conditions in there extended! Anybody who trys to make a call on this summer at this stage, is either very brave... Or very gullible! 

I wasn't saying it will be the same pattern i was saying that the model was showing some similarities : key word 'Similarities' i.e. that's why i mentioned plumes and thunderstorms as it should be a different pattern to last year although it's possible to have some similarities. Also i don't recollect making a call on the summer as that chart only features April,May and June and i explicitly mentioned that you might be able to take away vague patterns from the chart for May which is only a few weeks away now. Secondly i didn't say that it was set in stone I am by no means calling summer and i am not knowledgeable enough to call a vague pattern on summer based upon teleconnections and or analogues based upon things like the MJO or QBO. Also i was mentioning the musings of some of the other members but i wasn't saying what they said was gospel, Finally a last point is that soon you could call a vague pattern as once the final warming happens over the next few weeks we may start to get an idea of what may happen over the summer as things start to set up and we see the general sort of set ups that may reoccur over the summer.

Sorry if my post came over as saying it was going to be the exact same and i agree that it's highly unlikely hence why i was suggesting a similar set up with slightly different details which could lead to a very different feel i.e more humid. I like all types of weather to clarify but at the moment i'm not looking for cold or snow anymore hence why i'm intrigued in the remote possibility of it being warm and possibly stormy. I don't want rain and unsettled cool weather from the North or East i will agree there are signs but it's nothing more than that as far as i'm concerned and any unsettled weather is still at least a week away in which everything could change and we are talking about a Sceuro high setup which can be notoriously difficult to move as well. Finally Exeter have been useless this winter and they may cotton on to something warm next month and then drop it again.

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, next week becomes gradually milder, indeed significantly milder / warmer compared to this week but as to the actual cloud / mist and sunshine distribution..that's well above my pay grade. If I was to take a stab at it, I would say it looks generally dry and there could be decent amounts of warm sunshine breaking through away from counties bordering the north sea which could be predominantly cool and misty but not as cool as this weekend is expected to be, also a possible risk of showers pushing up from the near continent across southern areas but for many, and probably all,  it looks fine.

Edited April 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

42 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed Ed, I'm just trying to look on the bright side which may not necessarily be the right side.

Absolutely...keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side, keep on the sunny side of life? My apologies to A. P. Carter!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Absolutely...keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side, keep on the sunny side of life? My apologies to A. P. Carter!

Indeed, if I made depressing posts nobody would want to read them, apart from West country Storm sad smiley person.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Summerstorm said:

I wasn't saying it will be the same pattern i was saying that the model was showing some similarities : key word 'Similarities' i.e. that's why i mentioned plumes and thunderstorms as it should be a different pattern to last year although it's possible to have some similarities. Also i don't recollect making a call on the summer as that chart only features April,May and June and i explicitly mentioned that you might be able to take away vague patterns from the chart for May which is only a few weeks away now. Secondly i didn't say that it was set in stone I am by no means calling summer and i am not knowledgeable enough to call a vague pattern on summer based upon teleconnections and or analogues based upon things like the MJO or QBO. Also i was mentioning the musings of some of the other members but i wasn't saying what they said was gospel, Finally a last point is that soon you could call a vague pattern as once the final warming happens over the next few weeks we may start to get an idea of what may happen over the summer as things start to set up and we see the general sort of set ups that may reoccur over the summer.

Sorry if my post came over as saying it was going to be the exact same and i agree that it's highly unlikely hence why i was suggesting a similar set up with slightly different details which could lead to a very different feel i.e more humid. I like all types of weather to clarify but at the moment i'm not looking for cold or snow anymore hence why i'm intrigued in the remote possibility of it being warm and possibly stormy. I don't want rain and unsettled cool weather from the North or East i will agree there are signs but it's nothing more than that as far as i'm concerned and any unsettled weather is still at least a week away in which everything could change and we are talking about a Sceuro high setup which can be notoriously difficult to move as well. Finally Exeter have been useless this winter and they may cotton on to something warm next month and then drop it again.

 

You say Exeter have been useless, but there main model GloSea5 is the model that some are quoting is showing signs of bringing us another belter of a summer, and like you point out, the winter forecasts were a shambles! No blame to them or any respectable forecaster, and that includes the many knowledgeable posters on here.... But just goes to show that seasonal models cannot deal with such a topsy Turvey  climate like we have here. I can see there are quite a few who want these thundery plumes through the coming summer...... Not me, thanks..... To my knowledge in the uk, you get 3 fine days, followed by storms..... Then a complete breakdown for several weeks!!! It's not southern Europe where a major downpour is followed by weeks of heat and sun, unfortunately a breakdown in the UK usually means we need swift attention from the RAC! The only poster I can see at present putting out a summer prediction is Mike Poole.... And he has his reasons for what he thinks, he is a very knowledgeable poster, and I won't discredit him in any shape or form... Even though I may not fully agree with his predictions. 

[Mike Poole]

Comparison of the main models at T192, Easter weekend, here JMA, GEM, ECM, GFS, FV3:

Looking good for warmth and dry weather.  I know some models show a return to cold later in FI but that is a long way beyond the reliable and I wonder if this is the start of a longer weather pattern - similar to what happened at this time last year.  Some support from the long range models as per my post a day or two ago, interesting to see how all this pans out.

Edited April 12, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Sir Mim]

7 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

It's an even finer line, between North Sea filth and even more North Sea filth!

I'd rather have that than "warm sunshine".

[Frosty.]

Nice warm up on Ecm 00z..shorts and t-shirt weather later next week..well, according to Darren bett!!!

Edited April 13, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

GFS looking better, long-term, than it was yesterday: 

And so is the Para: 

The GEFS 00Z ensemble: