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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

BlueHedgehog074
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Temperatures beginning to recover next week just in time for Easter though right on cue the precipitation spikes begin to increase slightly later next week it's as the weather knows we have a bank holiday weekend coming up

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.a34a076b616e53b93710cf9317661e95.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.9db89355f013dd4c8b40310e8f7d607f.pnggefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.7cf759f5009ea02a39811917142ff1f4.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Nae much of a cold shot:image.thumb.png.25bb1dfcdbf38e55fabd3c40b3d3f1e4.pngimage.thumb.png.750d47ac4b720eb7418c4af83b76f08c.png

                              FV3:  image.thumb.png.0978b9a416280c121c502aec75a54f18.pngimage.thumb.png.80f39ee0c66ef8ea78c8c0f8250fbbe7.png

                    Ensemble:   image.thumb.png.45bd619f569b28f5210c9116b6023a8c.png 2 or 3 days, op only affair?:oldgrin:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean turns into a cracker, warmer and warmer from a warming continent once we are out of the cool toothless easterly..things are looking up as we head towards easter.

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM0-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM0-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The ukmo 0h is also trending much milder / warmer next week as winds become SE'ly post cool E'ly blip.

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Weekend still looking like a two-day crapfest! image.thumb.png.8a95245934fa940fb77a227559f69deb.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Weekend still looking like a two-day crapfest! image.thumb.png.8a95245934fa940fb77a227559f69deb.png

Tomorrow looks ok Ed, plenty of sunshine, sunday a bit more cloud but still feeling pleasant in the sun and out of the cool easterly breeze.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tomorrow looks ok Ed, plenty of sunshine, sunday a bit more cloud but still feeling pleasant in the sun and out of the cool easterly breeze.

But Thursday looks better, Karl; it will feel a good deal warmer::yahoo:

image.thumb.png.e28f8db592ca7c0081455014b948cd28.pngimage.thumb.png.aa80e7ca0e148bbc8de3b1efe98913f8.png 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

6z operational shaping up nicely next week with high pressure in control, largely fine with sunny spells and becoming much milder, indeed warm later next week further south, close to 21c 70f.

06_201_uk2mtmp.png

06_201_mslp850.png

06_201_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

216hrs, warm spell alert, +8 uppers, temps up to 20c no probs! 

gfs-1-216.png

7968b46e065b7fa4332bc375bd42b295.jpg

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Next weekend just keeps getting better!

image.thumb.png.ad727e1a84213e3593545754d0322657.pngimage.thumb.png.c2188d954a170bf32472c274392a580a.pngimage.thumb.png.3df28d701ae7e0482ef5242b3e8f41b9.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

And then a glancing blow from the arctic..just look how potent that is for the north compared to this lame duck easterly tripe!

06_225_mslp500.png

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06_312_ukthickness850.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And then a glancing blow from the arctic..just look how potent that is for the north compared to this lame duck easterly tripe!

Yes Karl it looks like very much a ding dong battle of the airmasses for the remainder of this month! 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Looking at the GEFS 6z i'm seeing good signs, not just for easter but further ahead too!

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
13 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

At last a cold surge with family jewels..... Bring it I say. 

gfs-1-324.png

The GFS will still show these charts in mid July at this rate!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Hello, hello, hello: what have we here, then? Convection Heaven?:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.7ba6d91596251d95f3936a934f7945ce.pngimage.thumb.png.a49be5d5e2a166339eae8fa01d843c63.png 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
9 minutes ago, Don said:

The GFS will still show these charts in mid July at this rate!

Yeh, and that's the old gfs, great ain't it Don..... With the new para model now, we get to view - 12 uppers 12 months of the year.... Bloody shame they never come off though!!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

And, the  Man From The 06Z GEFS ensemble, he say: um, er, eh - I'll think about it...:cc_confused:

 

image.thumb.png.ecd9e00a236a04c1d4d819d1d3037ee2.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Even the Gem 00z is improving significantly.. with an Easterly..yikes!!:shok:..let the good times roll

GEMOPEU00_156_1.png

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GEMOPEU00_204_1.png

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GEMOPEU00_228_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

I may be wrong here but there looks to be an increasing number of showers indicated for east anglia and southeast england through the early hours of tomorrow morning through to around lunchtime and some of them could be wintry, even contain snow in places combined with a frost it will feel wintry..according to my weather app.

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I may be wrong here but there looks to be an increasing number of showers indicated for east anglia and southeast england through the early hours of tomorrow morning through to around lunchtime and some of them could be wintry, even contain snow in places combined with a frost it will feel wintry..according to my weather app.

I'm almost 100% certain that snow will fall, in places, Karl...It snowed on the day The Thatch became PM (May 3rd 1979) when maxes were of 7 or 8C; and, with dry, continental air, I can see no reason why it won't, this time. Whether or not it'll satisfy ANYWEATHER's hopes, however, is far more uncertain!:oldgrin:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm almost 100% certain that snow will fall, in places, Karl...It snowed on the day The Thatch became PM (May 3rd 1979) when maxes were of 7 or 8C; and, with dry, continental air, I can see no reason why it won't, this time. Whether or not it'll satisfy ANYWEATHER's hopes, however, is far more uncertain!:oldgrin:

My weatherandradar app is pretty good, just wonder if the Gfs will show it, shame it's just for the SE but at least some interest for lamp post watchers in the early hours.

Edited by Frosty.
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Earthshine Seasoned

Earthshine

Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
Posted
3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z i'm seeing good signs, not just for easter but further ahead too!

21_180_500mb.png

21_204_500mb.png

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Suggesting mid-70s!   Proper BBQ weather that is.  Do you expect we'll see quite large diurnals with that set-up (i.e. flow off the continent)?

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Suggesting mid-70s!   Proper BBQ weather that is.  Do you expect we'll see quite large diurnals with that set-up (i.e. flow off the continent)?

They are perturbations, individual runs... Its unlikely it will quite pan out that way!! Those runs Indicate the best case scenario, so try not to get your hopes up to much! I mean I could throw this at you, doesn't mean it will verify though! 

gens-8-0-360.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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