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3 hours ago, weirpig said:

Yes it is strange  why they wouldnt prepare better   slightly Ironic  that they went to see the damage climate change is doing   then needed to be rescued by 3 helicopters  which helps create climate change  funny world.   

I suggest we look at the current extent maps. All over the Arctic sea ice has shrunk way back from the normal extent EXCEPT for a tiny area around the east coast of Spitzbergen where there is indeed more ice than usual.

Amazing.

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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Indeed, it's a really poor article as they haven't even bothered looking at the sea ice extent. When looking at that it's not surprising ships in the area ran into trouble.

image.thumb.png.1451c19523eee03b51794b45ef7d02f5.pngimage.thumb.png.ccc1f3bb0c3059b662b82d0a6fdab061.png 

As Paul says, better navigation skills are perhaps needed and doesn't detract from the fact that arctic sea ice extent is yet again seeing a minimum that is much below average.

Oops, you're too fast for me 👍

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1 minute ago, Devonian said:

I suggest we look at the current extent maps. All over the Arctic sea ice has shrunk way back from the normal extent EXCEPT for a tiny area around the east coast of Spitzbergen where there is indeed more ice than usual.

Amazing.

Yes I know  and your point being?   

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Yes I know  and your point being?   

That exceptions are simply that and focusing on them is misleading. One, tiny, place in the Arctic has more ice than usual - so WUWT and MIA focus on that. Why?????

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yes I know  and your point being?   

That the article is awful?

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7 minutes ago, Devonian said:

That exceptions are simply that and focusing on them is misleading. One, tiny, place in the Arctic has more ice than usual - so WUWT and MIA focus on that. Why?????

I have no idea        I was merely pointing out  what's your point   as  you responded to my quote  which was a  tongue and cheek reply 

Edited by weirpig

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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

That the article is awful?

Err I know 

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It's hard to understand why there is a patch of ice around Spitzbergen as that region has consistently had above-average temperatures through the summer - perhaps ice has been transported down from the north?  Certainly the ice patch is reflected by the fact that the capital Longyearbyen had its first lying snow of the season a few days ago, which is unusually early for recent years (in most recent years it hasn't snowed and lay there until October, although last year there was a bout of lying snow near the end of September).

Over the past year it's especially been over the other side of the Arctic, especially around and northward of the Bering Sea, that we've seen exceptionally high temperatures and seen ice struggling to take hold even in winter, in a region that has historically tended to be at least partially ice covered all year round.

The fact that we're unlikely to record our lowest annual minimum is a reflection of how extreme August 2012 was for its rapid melting, assisted by an intense low early in the month.  It's still possible that 2019 could record the lowest annual mean sea ice extent if the refreeze is sluggish during the rest of autumn.

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17 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

It's hard to understand why there is a patch of ice around Spitzbergen as that region has consistently had above-average temperatures through the summer - perhaps ice has been transported down from the north?  Certainly the ice patch is reflected by the fact that the capital Longyearbyen had its first lying snow of the season a few days ago, which is unusually early for recent years (in most recent years it hasn't snowed and lay there until October, although last year there was a bout of lying snow near the end of September).

I think it's a piece of fast ice(ice stuck to land) from the winter which has remained there all summer. Fast ice tends to be more resilient to melt than normal ice and indeed in general the ice pack has been stuck to the Svalbard islands all summer with retreat only happening in the last 1 to 2 weeks. Southerly winds with mild air is set to strike this area which has not been the case this summer so that patch of ice may not last for much longer sadly. 

 

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As explained here, the volume situation far outweighs the extent/area one - and it troubles me greatly.

Generally, the lower the volume, the more vulnerable the ice is to whatever the weather patterns decide to get up to.


Also, not covered in this blog piece (I try to keep them from becoming too complicated), the huge amount of dispersion that has taken place in recent weeks may cause additional trouble. This being if, as I have seen speculated but without much hard evidence (it's difficult to acquire - not enough buoys for starters!), the thin sea ice acts to trap additional heat in the Arctic Ocean by keeping turbulent mixing to a minimum.

The ice may also block some radiation of heat into the atmosphere, but I imagine this tends to be insignificant until it starts thickening appreciably Oct-Nov.

Given that 2019 has seen an unprecedented (or close to it) amount of oceanic heat uptake due to the exceptional amount of open water during May-July, I'm concerned that the stored heat may restrain the refreeze as much as we saw during the miserable 2016-17 refreeze season. That'd leave the Arctic in need of a summer as extraordinarily kind to the sea ice as 2017's was.

 

 

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Can anyone care to explain why the Arctic ice loss is massive compared to the norm year in year out compared to the Antarctic? 

In fact some reports even state the Antarctic gains more ice some years.

 

Edited by booferking

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6 hours ago, Singularity said:

 

As explained here, the volume situation far outweighs the extent/area one - and it troubles me greatly.

Generally, the lower the volume, the more vulnerable the ice is to whatever the weather patterns decide to get up to.


Also, not covered in this blog piece (I try to keep them from becoming too complicated), the huge amount of dispersion that has taken place in recent weeks may cause additional trouble. This being if, as I have seen speculated but without much hard evidence (it's difficult to acquire - not enough buoys for starters!), the thin sea ice acts to trap additional heat in the Arctic Ocean by keeping turbulent mixing to a minimum.

The ice may also block some radiation of heat into the atmosphere, but I imagine this tends to be insignificant until it starts thickening appreciably Oct-Nov.

Given that 2019 has seen an unprecedented (or close to it) amount of oceanic heat uptake due to the exceptional amount of open water during May-July, I'm concerned that the stored heat may restrain the refreeze as much as we saw during the miserable 2016-17 refreeze season. That'd leave the Arctic in need of a summer as extraordinarily kind to the sea ice as 2017's was.

 

 

Very good blog post there, for me what is telling about this melting season is just how quick the ice melted in the ESS during July after the exceptional warmth during June despite weather patterns changing to something more favourable at times in July which showed how there was less fast ice and how the ice must of been thinner than other years in this region. 

Refreeze is going to be slow, I'll be shocked if its not, just look what happened last year and just how long it took for the Laptev to freeze over last year and this year does not have any tongue of ice to extend towards the ESS to stop any warm currents heading into the laptev so we could see something exceptional this Autumn. Hopefully we won't though! 

2012 had lower extent but in general the ice was slower to melt in some pacific regions therefore cooler SSTS hence the very sharp refreeze as a result. 

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Double post but just to update on the latest situation on Arctic sea ice extent. 

Extent has dropped quite a bit the last few days(for the time of year) and we are almost going to pass the 2016 minimum and there's a chance we may pass the 2007 minimum also. I'm not too sure if the numbers really matters too much but it shows it ain't over till its over. 

Been a really poor year for sea ice and I suspect Autumn is not going to look any better either with so much heat in the oceans up there. Ironically models are suggesting a high pressure cell around the pole with some troughing around it with in theory should be the best set up for refreeze but you just never know this year. The PV yet again is struggling to form and this should be the norm if we get a BOE especially. 

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Thanks for the blog compliment @Geordiesnow 🙂.

Good update, definitely worth the double-post 😄 - there's a lot of thin, fragmented ice drifting around with the winds. Every time I look around with WorldView, the poor visual state of so much of the ice leaves me feeling a bit unwell. The minimums for extent and to a lesser degree area will be largely down to chance; however the various highs and lows happen to move around during the next fortnight.

The central HP cell currently looks short-lived, but the models haven't been doing a great job since the decay of the major blocking regime that dominated the summer, so who knows how long it might actually stick around for.

During the refreeze, I gather high pressure is best to have around for the first few months to facilitate a quick initial freeze, after which low pressure is preferable to provide a thick layer of snow cover to protect the ice during the following Apr-Jun. I'm not 100% on this, though!

Edited by Singularity
More is More

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3 hours ago, Singularity said:

Thanks for the blog compliment @Geordiesnow 🙂.

Good update, definitely worth the double-post 😄 - there's a lot of thin, fragmented ice drifting around with the winds. Every time I look around with WorldView, the poor visual state of so much of the ice leaves me feeling a bit unwell. The minimums for extent and to a lesser degree area will be largely down to chance; however the various highs and lows happen to move around during the next fortnight.

The central HP cell currently looks short-lived, but the models haven't been doing a great job since the decay of the major blocking regime that dominated the summer, so who knows how long it might actually stick around for.

During the refreeze, I gather high pressure is best to have around for the first few months to facilitate a quick initial freeze, after which low pressure is preferable to provide a thick layer of snow cover to protect the ice during the following Apr-Jun. I'm not 100% on this, though!

I think the ice just to the north of the Canadian Arciphello and Greenland and see how it looks alot thinner than just 10 years ago even just shows how much the ice pack in general has changed, even if the extent of the ice has somewhat been a little more stable although definately no recovery as this year shows. 

High pressure is the prefer weather type even during winter as it usually means less ice leaving the fram Stright for example and it tends to help more to thicken the ice up on the Siberian side of the basin more. High pressure via a ridge from lower latitudes is never good(for the ice but obviously good for snow enthusiasts) as it promotes WAA and much warmer temperatures than a high in situ over the basin. 

Disagree slightly that the high pressure looks short lived, most runs has it sticking around for a while, hopefully the troughing around it can help cool the Arctic down and of course the SSTS! 

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Arctic sea ice will officially have the 2nd lowest at minimum on record as we just squeeked past 2016 on todays update. Will it get below 4 million, find out tomorrow, I think it will as I am struggling to see where refreeze will occur at the moment as there is barely any PV to speak of at the moment up there. 

Models(especially the ECM) keep on wanting to develop cold troughing around the Arctic High but the models are wanting to go cold too quickly and in reality this is not the case, probably because of the warm SSTS up there although they are gradually cooling down. 

The reason why extent has dropped off so sharply for the time of year is down to Atlantification, as soon as the winds turn any direction southerly, it's bye bye to the ice around Svalbard. It might make a return though as the winds are set to switch to a more northerly direction but we shall see. 

Just to show how things have changed, this set up of an Arctic high in situ over the basin should not lead to such extent drops in September and any troughing around the high would no doubt have colder air wrapped around it making it in theory a favourable set up. Certainly not the case this year. Let's just hope we don't get a big ridging high heading into the Pacific basin like we did at the start of October 2018 then that would be the iceing on the cake! 

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So we do drop below the 4 million mark!

I do hope folk are taking note of my pleas to look at the changes ongoing in the basin ,year on year, an d not just sit up when records tumble?

The reason this year kept on falling has a lot to do with the state of the ice and its ability to 'compress' into a smaller body of ice.

Only the move to ever younger ,ever smaller floes allows this but, should the trend continue, we find ourselves looking at ice cover that will melt out even when past years would have seen melt stalling.

The smaller the floe size the more important 'side melt' of the floe becomes and the ability for heat to penetrate fully into the floe.

In the past the size of floes mean that the centre of the floe was protected from the ocean warmth. This is now going away leaving floes that will melt out now the ocean warmth can get to all areas of the floe.

As we move forward this will become more and more apparent.

Then we have the increased 'mobility' of smaller floes.

With our oldest,thickest, ice again hanging over Fram will we see this flushed before December leaving a near completely first/second year ice pack? Lets see if the first of the winter storms run up the east Greenland coast & on into the Svalbard region setting up a northerly drift into Fram for the ice over the NE corner of Greenland

Whilst folk here are praying for snow from any 'Northerly Blast' do take a look further North to see how 'export' is being impacted by the set up!

 

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22 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

So we do drop below the 4 million mark!

I do hope folk are taking note of my pleas to look at the changes ongoing in the basin ,year on year, an d not just sit up when records tumble?

The reason this year kept on falling has a lot to do with the state of the ice and its ability to 'compress' into a smaller body of ice.

Only the move to ever younger ,ever smaller floes allows this but, should the trend continue, we find ourselves looking at ice cover that will melt out even when past years would have seen melt stalling.

The smaller the floe size the more important 'side melt' of the floe becomes and the ability for heat to penetrate fully into the floe.

In the past the size of floes mean that the centre of the floe was protected from the ocean warmth. This is now going away leaving floes that will melt out now the ocean warmth can get to all areas of the floe.

As we move forward this will become more and more apparent.

Then we have the increased 'mobility' of smaller floes.

With our oldest,thickest, ice again hanging over Fram will we see this flushed before December leaving a near completely first/second year ice pack? Lets see if the first of the winter storms run up the east Greenland coast & on into the Svalbard region setting up a northerly drift into Fram for the ice over the NE corner of Greenland

Whilst folk here are praying for snow from any 'Northerly Blast' do take a look further North to see how 'export' is being impacted by the set up!

 

Indeed, a similar sort of set up even just 10 years ago probably would not of resulted in such losses and such a retreat on the Atlantic edge. I'm sure it's not all melt and some of it will be compaction but it does result in extent losses and the headline of this season is we dipped below 4 million this year and extent standsn around 3.96 million.

The only thing I will say because the extent losses has virtually occurred on the Atlantic side, does the recent losses make next year more vulnable for the 2020 season than say if extent stayed around 4.05-4.15 million in extent? I shall think not but the slow regrowth might though, there is a alot of warmth in those SSTS and even though the set up is pretty good to cool down those SSTS(because of high pressure) it is so easy these days we could end up with a October similar to 2016 and 2018 and end up with very low FDD(Freezing degree days). 

Edited by Geordiesnow

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Hi G.S. !

Agreed!

 

The past decade should have seen us switch our attentions to the Autumn/Winter months & away from the melt seasons themself?

The biggest changes have been seen in the ice condition ,extent & temps over these 'cold seasons'?

This year will be the worst of the bunch with large areas of ocean open to the sun since early may so instead of seeing all the incoming 'calories' spent on forcing the phase transition from ice to water they have been spent on warming water ( for those who do not know it takes 70 cals to melt a 1cm cube of ice, 1cm cube of water raises its temp by 1C for every calorie input.....you either melt a 1cm cube or you raise the temp of a 1cm cube of water to 70C..........)

Most of this heat will remain in the upper ocean whilst some will be shed to allow refreeze. This shedding musses up the formation of the Polar Night Jet something awful with impacts felt around our hemisphere.....it also opens up the basin to WAA ( and us to 'cold plunges'?)

If open water remains then any winter low will drive swells into the ice edge causing disruption there & mixing back up the summer warmth stored below?

It could be an interesting 2 months ahead?

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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On 21/08/2019 at 22:19, feb1991blizzard said:

First i have heard but this surely won't be good news if they continue into October when we want the Siberian snow cover to be as extensive and move westward.

EDIT :  The only thing it could do though with such heat at surface with cold upper atmospheric troughs dropping down from the Arctic is cause everything to go Flash bang flash bang etc.

 

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7 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Oh dear 😢

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Oh dear 😢

Small increase today and given the weather set ups, I think it favours more in the way of increases so I'll be surprised if it stays below 4 million for long.

It's been a funny old melt season and the headline is definately the fact extent fell below 4 million yet area remained a fair bit above 2016 so clearly the CAB has been a bit more compact compared than then. Even the CAB in 2017 looked more diffused than this year but what we seen this year was a very quick melt across the Pacific side of the basin hence it helped extent to go as low as it did. 

I also notice on Zack Labe temperature charts that August was the warmest on record which surprises me as the 2nd half of August looked cooler due to a strong storm which helped to move the extent line away from 2012. I don't think the first part of August was that exceptional either, maybe it is down to the warm SSTS? 

Some hints from the GFS in particular that this high pressure may break down but still too far out. What is more interesting is the forecast through fram, very strong southerly winds are forecast so fram export should be low I would of thought? 

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