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Model discussion - March drawing to a close


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

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To split or not to split?

That's the fundamental difference between the GFS and ECM 12z runs. 

Judging by the stratosphere output, this split looks troposphere-driven, probably in response to a vigorous trough off the SW tip of Greenland in 6 days time, which makes me hesitant to place much faith in GFS as it often gets carried away with that form of event. That ECM has this trough much less potent furthers my scepticism of the GFS solution:

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In the no-split outcome, we see what we saw a few times over last winter; the cold spill is focused across E. Canada and perhaps the NE US. This could then fuel some deep trough formation in the N. Atlantic, which under an El Nino base state tends to dig more south than usual. With the seasonal reduction of westerly momentum across the N. Atlantic, these have an increasingly good chance as the first half of April progresses of staying west of the UK with the main impacts on us being ridges 'thrown' over from the Azores, with anomalously warm but potentially cloudy airmasses accompanying them.

That's a huge contrast to most of the GFS 12z D11-16, and to the GFS 06z until D15 when it achieved a similar setup locally to us, but via a west-based negative NAO.

So... good luck if you're estimating the CET this month! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Holy macaroni what an Ecm 12z ensemble mean that would be..if it was winter!!!

Looking at next week, Monday is the transition day and by tuesday it's  trough / cold pool = very showery with hail and thunder with even some sleet and wet snow but that risk is especially on hills but also in some of the wintry showers down to low levels but as is the nature of showers, some will get hammered while others wonder what all the fuss is about while they enjoy more in the way of strong spring sunshine..cold nights though with a risk of frosts...then those scandi height rises and that raw easterly really sets in!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Actually if it is to be winters last hurrah, ICON 18z having some fun with it at T84:

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Direct hit, with little ammunition left!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Last throes of winter it may be but it's already looking like a potent cold blast from beyond The Wall on the pub run at just T72:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Some Interest early next week with potential snow in places, it could be key also regarding the timing! Later evening would be bringing an enhanced risk of snow! So it's generally cold through next week with frost also being a risk. Beyond 7/8days it looks like with the Estly winds backing to the SE, the air should become less cold, especially with the central/southern continent on the warm... And perhaps signs of pressure building and becoming warmer mid month onwards. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
18 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

it won't, Atlantic and jet too strong, PV too aggressive, all that weakens in April

Just like last winter you mean when we had the slider low in December and the 2 beasts from the east in March? Oh and lets not forget December 2010, winter 09-10, January and March 2013 I could go on....

Edited by coldie
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - This week will be unsettled and a lot colder than of late with temps generally below average which will be a marked contrast to last week.

The NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and he 0500 UK chart. The upper trough which is a vital part of the pattern change is about to be ejected from the vortex lobe in the Labrador Straits.

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.397c3c86b581494bbd3c88e1e3af9e41.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.d44882d8684f529f0799465ca9eaa9fa.gif05.thumb.gif.f03621457b1371d53533e9a5a1365c92.gif

The weakening cold front will hang around in the south during today before eventually fizzling out this evening thus it will be generally cloudy here although where the cloud clears, Cornwall for example, it will be quite warm. further north plenty of sunny intervals with perhaps the odd shower. Through this evening and overnight generally clear skies so quite a widespread frost by morning. But by dawn cloud will encroach the north west as a couple of fronts approach from the west.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.b8600622f8f774e028ae5af3180f3135.gif386645922_maxs.thumb.png.eeca1d34c103dbf857d382e8d1335fac.pngmin.thumb.png.5e836fad2baba473ccce6a1337b78d95.png

Through Monday the fronts will continue to track slowly east bringing rain to north western areas and the wind will start to pick up whilst elsewhere it will be dry with sunny intervals and quite warm. Quite a marked N/S temp differential.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.01150f47e029fef374162ad10b49290e.gif1560647186_maxm.thumb.png.f9c75a1adaff253940e55b67cc771693.pngp12.thumb.png.46ecdaff53470d428cfc3389058aaca2.pngp15.thumb.png.3fea1c61dd71df79449172976070e74d.pngp18.thumb.png.505f396968b99c93662decb14f637abe.png

Over Monday night and through Tuesday the trough mentioned earlier has tracked east and now sinks south east over the UK as the Atlantic and European subtropical high pressures zones amplify.This results in a complex, potentially unstable, low pressure  area over the UK resulting in sunny intervals interspersed with frequent wintry showers which will include thunder, hail and snow in the mix, depending on location A much colder day and to get an idea of the potential instability a couple of forecast soundings which would indicate, when convection gets going, cloud tops up as far as the tropopause in some places

gfs_z500_vort_natl_11.thumb.png.b923dcc27262bfe19e9e716c6f12355f.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.fa818903bbad714d9baef58c7b7ff9f3.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.12f3506b74eefe1cb0819c530071a56a.gif

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Little change Tuesday night and a widespread frost by Wednesday morning

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The UK remains under the influence of low pressure through Wednesday and Thursday so a continuation of sunshine and showers, albeit the latter less intense, (perhaps the Pembroke Dangler being the exception?) with temps remaining below average. But a more concentrated low that has developed over the North Sea will track west on Thursday bringing with it an area of more general rain to northern regions.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z operational  highlights what I absolutely love about spring, the duality / dualism!!!!!!!.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Just glancing further afield with the gfs. I'll not bother with any detail at this stage as a fair bit of inertia is setting in effecting our neck of the woods, as is indicated by the 250mb wind profile by midday Saturday

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Suffice it to say continuing under the auspices of low pressure for the rest of the week with sunshine and showers with temps still a tad below average but thereafter more settled with temps near normal

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm continues to do what it has been indicating in the 5-10 period which is promote high pressure to the north east with a very slack gradient in the vicinity of the UK. So more settled than mid week but temps still a tad below average

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

For those who like wintry weather, the 00Z GFS retains the -5/-6/-7*C 850 hPa temperatures over the U.K all day on Wednesday. Mostly thanks to more of a Northerly element to the flow.81892DBD-221D-4A2C-B20F-D6DC12D8522F.thumb.png.53632975e255dbcce6acf04e04a1c072.png9AA00A10-213E-46FF-97E4-CFEE94F9E11B.thumb.png.f84cc46f59e45ac373be929b43c1ecc5.png24B89F05-E87A-4579-8E52-8B98FF779C06.thumb.png.70510c9ef5f2bc8ba219c21d73d1c5ce.png6381FADE-3665-4DAB-BDF9-52739331DD87.thumb.png.11da9570ebfb1ac2edd9ef6d74c0c795.png849F1B45-1AD4-4D0F-9202-EA4924867B2D.thumb.png.a61883932d8c3dfe3f0c91d5af1b463d.png796B4628-CE56-4DBB-8FE3-56428F43E50F.thumb.png.f0916dd7b9ff7ad74aef91d0761fb3f8.pngF7832E05-B050-4698-B067-A752BBBC7C14.thumb.png.c98eef9bc70b819f6fb38e0c8bc2e4ca.png985DBD5C-CE7A-46EA-BCD1-47E6B38D273A.thumb.png.44e55fbe2bd5a81c09f8f3570e26bc70.png

Exception being over North-Eastern Scotland where those cold 850 hPa’s get diluted somewhat. Previous runs tended to mix out those -5*C (or slightly colder) 850 hPa’s on that day over most areas, so could mean showers over the island being just that little bit more wintry in general. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Ideal 'kitchen sink' synoptics, here we come!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I tell you what folks, it maybe spring and British summer time has just arrived, but our weather doesn't know that! Throughout the winter we had cold charts and precipitation charts constantly at 10 day's!! And now we have wintry precipitation charts at 3days! Now that's what we call into the reliable timeframe... About time to!! The cold spell maybe on its last legs come next weekend... But I say make the most of any snow you see! Some higher parts could see significant accumulation! Then perhaps we can search for summer proper... Until then enjoy the fascinating weather of the next few days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Back into no-man's-land? image.thumb.png.ec1b267a0d3d9ba2363f956ee03acc3c.png

I prefer light winds..Looking good

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I tell you what folks, it maybe spring and British summer time has just arrived, but our weather doesn't know that! Throughout the winter we had cold charts and precipitation charts constantly at 10 day's!! And now we have wintry precipitation charts at 3days! Now that's what we call into the reliable timeframe... About time to!! The cold spell maybe on its last legs come next weekend... But I say make the most of any snow you see! Some higher parts could see significant accumulation! Then perhaps we can search for summer proper... Until then enjoy the fascinating weather of the next few days. 

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Hi res vs low res.

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Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Hi res vs low res.

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Must say I prefer low res

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Must say I prefer low res

Who doesn't? Snowmageddon synoptics are like dinosaurs: they're big and scary, and you're never likely to see one...:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.9c8a6c32c93f0b69a8f2107da3e1af32.pngimage.thumb.png.eeb13fadb8e498b090c74f335f545061.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
25 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Hi res vs low res.

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Accoding to the charts you have posted... Only very select parts will see snow! Higher parts of Wales... Pennines..... Lake District... Scotland!! Let's just see!!!!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Accoding to the charts you have posted... Only very select parts will see snow! Higher parts of Wales... Pennines..... Lake District... Scotland!! Let's just see!!!!! 

It's a shame there isn't a mid res!!:crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: SE Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Any extremes
  • Location: SE Oxfordshire

Bring it on...

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Not that their will be much to see 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Following on from the recent det runs the ext EPS mean anomaly this morning is looking to develop the vortex over northern Russia and extending the European high pressure into Iceland and eastern Greenland. At the same time accentuating the negative tilt of the trough in the north west Atlantic south of the ridge which facilitates a conduit to low pressure in the eastern Mediterranean. This results in the relatively strong upper flow exiting the north eastern seaboard diverging in mid atlantic and a lot of inertia in the eastern Atlantic and thus a very slack pattern over the UK. The et runs need to sort the detail but this should portend a more settled outlook with temps around average. perhaps a tad below.

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Last evening's NOAA is in the same ball park

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
28 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Accoding to the charts you have posted... Only very select parts will see snow! Higher parts of Wales... Pennines..... Lake District... Scotland!! Let's just see!!!!! 

High resolution brings everything back to reality after viewing low resolution!

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