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Model discussion - March drawing to a close

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Incoming!!! GFSP COLD POOL ALERT! 

gfs-1-180.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
Just now, Mattwolves said:

Incoming!!! GFSP COLD POOL ALERT! 

gfs-1-180.png

It's the Blue Meanies! Now, where did I leave my yellow submarine?

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Well this looks breezy but very pleasant

06_276_mslp850.png

06_276_uk2mtmp.png

06_276_precipratec.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

With Easter coming into range of the models there are hints from the GEFS 6z that high pressure / azores ridging could be arriving just in time for the extended holiday weekend!

21_378_500mb.png

10_372_500mb.png

15_372_500mb.png

18_372_500mb.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Don't be in too much of a hurry with planting the tatties...like I was in 1981 (April 12th)!:shok:

image.thumb.png.4262558d6533a4bf5f59c8bf5bd71331.pngimage.thumb.png.1a8f4fbaef38cad3cb834b2459aaa58b.png  

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Looks like the FV3 is going the way of ECM! Looking forward to the UKMO and ECM updates later. 

gfs-1-228.png

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Looks like one of the models is well wide of the mark again, not for the first time this year I may add!

Lol if this was winter we  know which model would be correct, the less cold option. Now spring has arrived   the colder option will most probably  verify

I swear the weather gods have in for us folk who chase cold throughout late autumn and winter, isn't always the case the perfect charts arrive too late

Amazing conditions as expected in the cairngorms though, let's all head up there for Easter ❄️⛄

Edited by SLEETY
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The longer term signal is still very encouraging  (largely blocked and settled..and warmer) which is what the GEFS 6z mean is trending towards..hopefully arriving in time for easter.

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The longer term signal is still very encouraging  (largely blocked and settled..and warmer) which is what the GEFS 6z mean is trending towards..hopefully arriving in time for easter.

Indeed, Karl...the FV3 saves the best till last: image.thumb.png.1372411383ebcd692f99e9626d3d3ee5.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed, Karl...the FV3 saves the best till last: image.thumb.png.1372411383ebcd692f99e9626d3d3ee5.png

I should just add that we could see better weather next week, feeling warmer further south and west plus drier and brighter than this week.that also goes for this friday into the start of the weekend too.

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I should just add that we could see better weather next week, feeling warmer further south and west plus drier and brighter than this week.that also goes for this friday into the start of the weekend too.

My Money is on ECM, I think its nailed it... Warmer weather on hold till the following week!

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
36 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Lol if this was winter we  know which model would be correct, the less cold option. Now spring has arrived   the colder option will most probably  verify

I swear the weather gods have in for us folk who chase cold throughout late autumn and winter, isn't always the case the perfect charts arrive too late

Amazing conditions as expected in the cairngorms though, let's all head up there for Easter ❄️⛄

Or too early, like October to mid November...

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

My Money is on ECM, I think its nailed it... Warmer weather on hold till the following week!

Maybe colder and showery in the east, better further s / w...time will tell but looking at a blend of the output so far today that's what I think.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Very unlike the cold bias parallel to show warmth but actually this would be great for easter!?️

GFSPARAEU06_372_17.png

GFSPARAEU06_384_1.png

GFSPARAEU06_384_2.png

169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Ukmo 12h shows a strong Easterly flow at T+144 hours..much colder air marching wsw towards the uk...incredible charts yet again!:cold-emoji:

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted
2 hours ago, snowray said:

Or too early, like October to mid November...

yes exactly .Stunning ukmo if this was January,AGAIN

 

Could still see some snow around,that’s a very blocked pattern indeed.

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Wynn D Woo Rising Star

Wynn D Woo

Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Looks like March 2013 !!

Great - cold rain again!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Looks like March 2013 !!

Indeed, would have loved to see the next few frames!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'll be off to work on a farm, next Tuesday, so these synoptics don't (at face-value) look to bad:

image.thumb.png.60ec5608041900a5b5512ccce6d194dc.pngimage.thumb.png.8e15d97ee91e92015dcb13c58b76a849.png   ?‍?

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

UKMO V GFS... T144Hrs pick ya poison. 

It seems the 12z has different ideas beyond day 6

UW144-7.gif

gfs-1-144.png

gfs-1-186.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Brace yaselfs, its coming.... A Spanish plume that is!!!!! And how about a repeat of the latter chart I've posted again this year!! Won't be long folks before we see this!! 

gfs-1-204.png

37829DD500000578-3754308-image-a-36_1471954513312.jpg

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Next Thursday could be okay:image.thumb.png.ce723c51283eaec09482622998c90bb1.pngimage.thumb.png.1516618b3c66c5f828e59e787853aac4.png

Cold air being kept (at least for the time being) away from the UK...

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
25 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, would have loved to see the next few frames!

All eyes on this evening ECM. :oldrolleyes:

Coldies are coming out of hibernation early, even Steve M is posting I see.:oldgood:

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