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Timmytour

A Summer Prediction Based On An Exceptionally Mild February

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Let’s start with a definition of what would make a June, or a July, cold or warm.  Basically for the purpose of this thread, it’s whether the month features in either the warmest or the coldest 10% of all the mean CET values for that month since 1659.  Everything else is in the “average spectrum”

For June, the average spectrum is between 13C and 15.7C.  For July the average spectrum sits between 14.7C and 17.7C

In the last six summers we've had, five out of the 12 June and Julys  (over 40%), have been warm

This February has been exceptionally mild, a term I would apply to Februarys with a mean CET of 6.5C or greater.   So how do our June and Julys fare when we have had such exceptionally mild February’s in the past?

 

Curiously, after twenty-two such Februarys since 1700, there has only been one warm June, one cold June and three warm Julys. Take away the 18th century and out of 16 such Februarys, there has been just one warm July…and one cold June!  All the other June and Julys have been within the average spectrum.

 

The average CETs since 1700 that have followed exceptionally mild Februarys are 14.1C for June and 16.3 for July. (Since 1800 the equivalent figures are 14C and 16.2C)

 

Maybe then it wouldn’t be the boldest prediction to go for June and July to be a little under average this year, since previously they have tended to the lower half of the average spectrum?

 

In terms of summer months of course, that still leaves August.  Until 1961, Augusts followed a very similar pattern to Junes and Julys following exceptionally mild Februarys.  However, four out of the last five have delivered warm Augusts, including the three hottest ever!

 

So….in conclusion…..I am going for a backloaded summer!   An ordinary June and July, temperature slightly under average, with all the good fine warm weather this year coming during the kids’ school holidays!

  

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7 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Let’s start with a definition of what would make a June, or a July, cold or warm.  Basically for the purpose of this thread, it’s whether the month features in either the warmest or the coldest 10% of all the mean CET values for that month since 1659.  Everything else is in the “average spectrum”

For June, the average spectrum is between 13C and 15.7C.  For July the average spectrum sits between 14.7C and 17.7C

In the last six summers we've had, five out of the 12 June and Julys  (over 40%), have been warm

This February has been exceptionally mild, a term I would apply to Februarys with a mean CET of 6.5C or greater.   So how do our June and Julys fare when we have had such exceptionally mild February’s in the past?

 

Curiously, after twenty-two such Februarys since 1700, there has only been one warm June, one cold June and three warm Julys. Take away the 18th century and out of 16 such Februarys, there has been just one warm July…and one cold June!  All the other June and Julys have been within the average spectrum.

 

The average CETs since 1700 that have followed exceptionally mild Februarys are 14.1C for June and 16.3 for July. (Since 1800 the equivalent figures are 14C and 16.2C)

 

Maybe then it wouldn’t be the boldest prediction to go for June and July to be a little under average this year, since previously they have tended to the lower half of the average spectrum?

 

In terms of summer months of course, that still leaves August.  Until 1961, Augusts followed a very similar pattern to Junes and Julys following exceptionally mild Februarys.  However, four out of the last five have delivered warm Augusts, including the three hottest ever!

 

So….in conclusion…..I am going for a backloaded summer!   An ordinary June and July, temperature slightly under average, with all the good fine warm weather this year coming during the kids’ school holidays!

  

I’m going for a summer to resemble something similar to 2012, 1987 or 1980 unfortunately. All three years produced good weather earlier in the year with blocked patterns, March 2012, April 1987, while April and early May of 1980 were fairly sunny. Those summers were poor.

I’m hoping we have a hot summer, because it would be a real let down if it ends up cool and cloudy. Saying that, I would predict we will get some warm dry and sunny spells during the April and May periods. Possibly June will be a game of two halves, starting off warm or even hot before turning thundery and cooler. 

July and August will be average to poor, maybe on a par with 2017 but not as bad as anything between 2008-12 or 85-88.

Just my thoughts. 

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I`m going for a very wet april with snow on hills at times,a very warm may with some thundery outbreaks.

A warm HP blocked sometimes thundery june.

July becoming very unsettled second half quite disturbed but a very good hot spell ending in thunderstorms before that happens say the 20th something akin to 2008.

August some HP middle of the month lasting about a week pretty warm nothing out the ordinary and about,average rainfall. 

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The closest analogue to this recent warmth seems to be 1846 and that produced the warmest June on record. 

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Forget previous years. This Summer will be a mix of warm, dry, sunny weeks and wet weeks. Easy forecast.

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There is an excellent chance this summer will be a very good one based on past very good summers,most come in pairs.

1975,1976

1983,1984

1989,1990

1995,1996

2003,2004 [not the best example]

2018...…….?

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10 hours ago, hillbilly said:

There is an excellent chance this summer will be a very good one based on past very good summers,most come in pairs.

1975,1976

1983,1984

1989,1990

1995,1996

2003,2004 [not the best example]

2018...…….?

Lol I would have said 1994/95 as a better combination.

94 had a more unsettled August, but summer overall in 94 was better than 96 in London.

 

2004 wasn’t a good summer, we had a terrible July that year. Some cold days early on.

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On 01/03/2019 at 01:14, Sunny76 said:

Lol I would have said 1994/95 as a better combination.

94 had a more unsettled August, but summer overall in 94 was better than 96 in London.

 

2004 wasn’t a good summer, we had a terrible July that year. Some cold days early on.

05, 06 would be a better fit..June was very nice in 05..04 wasn't great June and particularly July were cool and dull..Aug 04 was warm and very wet

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On 04/03/2019 at 18:00, cheeky_monkey said:

05, 06 would be a better fit..June was very nice in 05..04 wasn't great June and particularly July were cool and dull..Aug 04 was warm and very wet

Yes that’s right. I remember 05 having a better August and decent May. Don’t recall June or July that year though. 

2004 was a disappointing summer, just very dull in parts and up until that time it was probably one of the poorest since the 1980s or early 90s(1993).

04 had a warmish August, but it was cloudy and thundery from what I remember. 

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I may have a West Country bias here and can't speak for other parts of the country but mid-May to mid-June 2004 was a very dry, settled, warm or hot and often dry period. However, the May started very unsettled and so did June finish in that manner. Along with 2008, it's one of the only Junes one can really attribute the 'return of the westerlies', which really set up for a poor July.

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16 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yes that’s right. I remember 05 having a better August and decent May. Don’t recall June or July that year though. 

2004 was a disappointing summer, just very dull in parts and up until that time it was probably one of the poorest since the 1980s or early 90s(1993).

04 had a warmish August, but it was cloudy and thundery from what I remember. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2005/june

had some hot sunny weather in the middle..probably the best June between 96-06

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Posted (edited)

Indeed, 1975/76, 1983/84 and 1989/90 were very good examples of pairs of fine summers.  I think of the mid-90s as having had a "trio" (1994/95/96) rather than a pair, and the 2000s examples (2003 and 2006 being the main anchor points) are not so convincing.  But I recall 2005 being pretty good apart from the very grey and cool last third of July.

Looking further back in the archives we had a "trio" of such summers in 1933/34/35, but in general there was less of a tendency for them to be grouped together in the early to mid 20th century.  There were also some pairs of very contrasting summers (1911 and 1912, 1958 and 1959 for instance).  There was also a very contrasting "trio" with a very fine mid to late summer in 1955 flanked by washouts in 1954 and 1956.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers

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On ‎28‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 17:26, Timmytour said:

Let’s start with a definition of what would make a June, or a July, cold or warm.  Basically for the purpose of this thread, it’s whether the month features in either the warmest or the coldest 10% of all the mean CET values for that month since 1659.  Everything else is in the “average spectrum”

For June, the average spectrum is between 13C and 15.7C.  For July the average spectrum sits between 14.7C and 17.7C

In the last six summers we've had, five out of the 12 June and Julys  (over 40%), have been warm

This February has been exceptionally mild, a term I would apply to Februarys with a mean CET of 6.5C or greater.   So how do our June and Julys fare when we have had such exceptionally mild February’s in the past?

 

Curiously, after twenty-two such Februarys since 1700, there has only been one warm June, one cold June and three warm Julys. Take away the 18th century and out of 16 such Februarys, there has been just one warm July…and one cold June!  All the other June and Julys have been within the average spectrum.

 

The average CETs since 1700 that have followed exceptionally mild Februarys are 14.1C for June and 16.3 for July. (Since 1800 the equivalent figures are 14C and 16.2C)

 

Maybe then it wouldn’t be the boldest prediction to go for June and July to be a little under average this year, since previously they have tended to the lower half of the average spectrum?

 

In terms of summer months of course, that still leaves August.  Until 1961, Augusts followed a very similar pattern to Junes and Julys following exceptionally mild Februarys.  However, four out of the last five have delivered warm Augusts, including the three hottest ever!

 

So….in conclusion…..I am going for a backloaded summer!   An ordinary June and July, temperature slightly under average, with all the good fine warm weather this year coming during the kids’ school holidays!

  

Did you include solar minimums in this 'analogue' analysis?

Solar minimums are a good player in blocked summer patterns with a 'quieter' Jet stream and less Atlantic.  

I'm sorry but I don't believe weather patterns follow each other and emerge into another pattern of the same variables that it happened before. If this was true then we could predict and estimate the weather for the next 1000 years.

So If we get a beast from the east this March would that mean we're in for a scorching July? (2013) 

Not saying this summer will be brilliant, but not saying it will be crap either.

 

 

 

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17 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2005/june

had some hot sunny weather in the middle..probably the best June between 96-06

Yeah June was the best part of that summer, plus it was sunny and warm during September. But, 2004 was a horrible summer in terms of cloud and wet conditions. I remember it, because I was working outside during part of it.

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2 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

Did you include solar minimums in this 'analogue' analysis?

Solar minimums are a good player in blocked summer patterns with a 'quieter' Jet stream and less Atlantic.  

I'm sorry but I don't believe weather patterns follow each other and emerge into another pattern of the same variables that it happened before. If this was true then we could predict and estimate the weather for the next 1000 years.

So If we get a beast from the east this March would that mean we're in for a scorching July? (2013) 

Not saying this summer will be brilliant, but not saying it will be crap either.

 

 

 

It could go either way, but I’m hedging my bets on a more average to poor summer this time out. Early part being warm and sunny, possibly a good may and June, but maybe a 1992 style summer, where things go downhill in July. Who knows though.

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On 07/03/2019 at 13:12, 38.5*C said:

Did you include solar minimums in this 'analogue' analysis?

Solar minimums are a good player in blocked summer patterns with a 'quieter' Jet stream and less Atlantic.  

I'm sorry but I don't believe weather patterns follow each other and emerge into another pattern of the same variables that it happened before. If this was true then we could predict and estimate the weather for the next 1000 years.

So If we get a beast from the east this March would that mean we're in for a scorching July? (2013) 

Not saying this summer will be brilliant, but not saying it will be crap either.

 

 

 

I'm well aware of the difficulties of accurately forecasting out weather months in advance thanks.  All I did was, for a bit of fun, make a prediction with a bit of rationale behind it.

I suppose I too could have made my post a lot shorter by simply stating something along the lines of "I'm thinking this summer will be ok" and not providing any of my reasons for doing so. 

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On 28/02/2019 at 17:26, Timmytour said:

Let’s start with a definition of what would make a June, or a July, cold or warm.  Basically for the purpose of this thread, it’s whether the month features in either the warmest or the coldest 10% of all the mean CET values for that month since 1659.  Everything else is in the “average spectrum”

For June, the average spectrum is between 13C and 15.7C.  For July the average spectrum sits between 14.7C and 17.7C

In the last six summers we've had, five out of the 12 June and Julys  (over 40%), have been warm

This February has been exceptionally mild, a term I would apply to Februarys with a mean CET of 6.5C or greater.   So how do our June and Julys fare when we have had such exceptionally mild February’s in the past?

 

Curiously, after twenty-two such Februarys since 1700, there has only been one warm June, one cold June and three warm Julys. Take away the 18th century and out of 16 such Februarys, there has been just one warm July…and one cold June!  All the other June and Julys have been within the average spectrum.

 

The average CETs since 1700 that have followed exceptionally mild Februarys are 14.1C for June and 16.3 for July. (Since 1800 the equivalent figures are 14C and 16.2C)

 

Maybe then it wouldn’t be the boldest prediction to go for June and July to be a little under average this year, since previously they have tended to the lower half of the average spectrum?

 

In terms of summer months of course, that still leaves August.  Until 1961, Augusts followed a very similar pattern to Junes and Julys following exceptionally mild Februarys.  However, four out of the last five have delivered warm Augusts, including the three hottest ever!

 

So….in conclusion…..I am going for a backloaded summer!   An ordinary June and July, temperature slightly under average, with all the good fine warm weather this year coming during the kids’ school holidays!

  

My issue is that you only looked at the temperature aspect and not other factors such as rainfall, sunshine.

A prime example is August 2004, you look at the CET and you think that must have been a decent month for summer weather then you look at the rainfall and it was very wet.

August 2008 had a CET that would make you think, nothing special but not bad. Then you look at sunshine and rainfall and it was diabolical. 

 

 

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On 09/03/2019 at 08:57, Weather-history said:

My issue is that you only looked at the temperature aspect and not other factors such as rainfall, sunshine.

A prime example is August 2004, you look at the CET and you think that must have been a decent month for summer weather then you look at the rainfall and it was very wet.

August 2008 had a CET that would make you think, nothing special but not bad. Then you look at sunshine and rainfall and it was diabolical. 

 

 

You are right that I have only taken into consideration the temperature and not sunshine or rainfall. So to that extent I should allowed in my (very amateurish and just for the crack) prediction that the August could either be fine warm weather, or interesting warm weather!  Personally, dependent on where and when I'm taking a holiday, a month of thunderstorms might be preferable to a month of hot and sticky weather to me! 🙂

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