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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


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4 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Lol, I don't think everyone is aware your from Sweden. - 10c, my god even I was getting excited then! ?

? I thought he was trolling!

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Looking towards the spring equinox the Gfs 00z operational becomes very spring-like with high pressure and a southerly breeze with temperatures into the mid teens celsius range..perhaps upper teens c

Morning all, So, a big pattern change is on the way, as the blocking area of high pressure over Europe the last 7 days slips south to allow Atlantic lows and frontal systems in from the west acro

Right folks after a think im calling time on this cold search, it's been fun while it lasted. I don't feel the need to have to keep coming on here and explaining to certain posters why I post 10 day c

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Some impressive trough disruption at t126 resulting in a cut off upper low over NW Africa, but this is just about the last throw of the dice from the subtropical highs as from here the Atlantic starts to take control with some unsettled and windy, at times, weather with temps varying around the average

t126.thumb.png.be49f1b9ba6abe21eabeead60d0e2433.pngjet.thumb.png.42771613e30fc84e087d716d78458708.pngt162.thumb.png.404a403db43752205cd13a12735fbe61.pngt210.thumb.png.2ebf9e212e35f46caa708a2d1d402483.png

 

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Looking at the 12z Ecm it’s quite conceivable that it may not be all that long again before springlike temps similar to those of recent times make for many a welcome return. Unlike the 00z run heights to the southwest looking far more apparent in the second half of the run with systems being diverted further north. Setting aside this weekend, in general a far less unsettled looking run. Could this after all be just an interruption to an overall prolonged settled spell one wonders.

Edited by Newberryone
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Looking through the GEFS 12z we certainly can't rule out some wintry weather at times this month..fingers crossed coldies!!???

snow_192_ps_slp.png

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15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking through the GEFS 12z we certainly can't rule out some wintry weather at times this month..fingers crossed coldies!!???

snow_192_ps_slp.png

I dont think there are many of us left frosty!! ?

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What a bizarre 18z run, we have cold days with a snow risk on various days, to temps in to the mid to high teens towards mid month. Then indications of temps dropping right back down in the final 3rd! The more I view these runs the more Confusing it becomes! On one occasion we have highs of 12-13c at mid day, then the charts shows widespread snow at 6pm!! Gfs lost the plot, I've lost the plot, my head hurts, night all! 

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The 500hPa and winds and the surface analysis for the Atlantic at midnight and the Euro chart for 0400

gfs_uv500_natl_1.thumb.png.bda056dad751a0f3f8d6724d75bdcb28.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.2c1a8b1a4295bb036f543fd0bdf7f7bb.gifeur_full.thumb.gif.1304221aabe4e2a3ea1f13253a70d749.gif

The squally and frequent showers over Scotland will gradually ease during the day but further south the front has started it's return journey north as storm Freya evolves in the south west approaches. Thus the belt of rain will track north through the day but will be joined by a heavier batch of rain by late morning associated with the cold front of Freya. This, along with Freya, will track north east through the afternoon and evening eventually being in the North Sea by midnight.(Note some more rain into the far south from a stray occlusion later)

PPVE89.thumb.gif.370ced0eeed4a64a69fd88aeba3f9547.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.83d8d35a75b2da041304e281db6fa937.gifp11.thumb.png.346bd789549ea41501d47ef162db4354.pngp15.thumb.png.b21e8be999bc13df611f9b8fcbce6b91.pngp19.thumb.png.0e5a2b9caa37b067a03f68e3a211d157.pngp02.thumb.png.7bb6471fe6e124ce8dda9d22671ebdb9.png

Also as Freya tracks north east the winds will strengthen across the it's southern flank with perhaps severe gales in exposed areas but the winds do not appear to be quite as strong as first feared and also further south with the slight adjustment to the track.

g12.thumb.png.0fb256499de27b472fe1d7d3284a3f25.pngg15.thumb.png.921e7e24a219609d963b4652cb6a7fdd.pngg18.thumb.png.f6a83dae08749a0ef9eacf9abf739326.pngg21.thumb.png.898120341fbdbde7e40857324aae9e83.png

The wind will have eased and the rain cleared by Monday morning but by now the Eastern Atlantic and the UK are under an upper trough with a myriad of surface features floating about and after a fine start to the day showery/rain will track east from western regions. temps now back to around average. But note that another trough has entered the fray to the south west which, I'm afraid, heralds the start of another complex scenario

gfs_z500_vort_natl_7.thumb.png.a1be22b0c4af4b9d0cefc608e4d0dd3e.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.89f6e05a0542f343d3b2ca65e5f549c3.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_8.thumb.png.e0c4dfe13f59882c51bca32094a7652e.png

Over Monday night through Tuesday the two troughs merge and the weather over the UK will be a mixture of sunshine, showers and longer periods of rain with regional variations with temps varying around the average

gfs_z500_vort_natl_11.thumb.png.6434b40a259396f15ac4606b216ea8e0.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.b770bbffe95b603d1c7257d96f3a5cd7.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.87c0934412f829498d7ff998fe38dcc2.gif

Over Wednesday and Thursday the trough coalesces into a more tightly nit , but still complex system, as it drifts slowly east thus the UK remains unsettled with showers and longer periods of rain and perhaps gales in coastal areas. Temps dropping a tad by Thursday

gfs_z500_vort_natl_17.thumb.png.6049e5675e31b8281f51b61856af53c6.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.60d71971e54c0e7894411e5920d173f5.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.2987c73fab5f242f33fb8c0c97e6d8f8.gif

gfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_16.thumb.png.3495c2cd9cb4f4346141d0b68a260f0f.pnggfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_20.thumb.png.30761f2878eedc66eb08942ff34daa14.png

Edited by knocker
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To continue wit the gfs. By t144 the trough discussed above is well away to the east and after a transient ridge the next front(s) have arrived from the west bringing more rain and strong winds through friday/Saturday. This heralds the start of a few very unsettled days as a lobe of the vortex drops into the Atlantic

gfs_z500a_nh_27.thumb.png.5df34069251cb6770a9a292845db0a58.pnggfs_uv250_nh_27.thumb.png.cf98361d4d9ad9cef56f09b4d9718585.png

and a strong zonal flow is initiated portending periods of rain, snow on the higher ground in the north, as colder air is introduced into the mix, and strong winds. Ending with, what else, some rapid cyclogenesis. Of coarse not to be taken too seriously but the environment could well facilitate this

gfs_z500_vort_natl_34.thumb.png.e52b07d892cc2281e6d84982d195536d.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_41.thumb.png.c29d3f87583a4bf627f8305e085f1053.pnggfs_t850a_natl_35.thumb.png.03d532bf79ecf1738d6faba403eb7d15.png

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The EPS indicating unsettled in the 5-10 period with a strong westerly upper flow, veering NW in the eastern Atlantic, with probably fragments of the vortex dropping into the atlantic as shown on the det run  Temps varying around the average but trending a tad below

5-10.thumb.png.28ab14a48d582e69c355a3f53f39fd11.png1282308203_5-10temp.thumb.png.d7879e2a1d86d5e8be7fca9efb17ae5f.png

Edited by knocker
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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Some ridiculous literally whiteout scenes from gfs 6z at times from next weekend! It's either picking up on something or sincerely feels sorry for us few remaing cold hunters! 

 

Lovely stuff, thanks for posting those..just highlights the potential we've been seeing..fingers crossed!?❄❄❄❄

Make-it-Snow-Star-Trek.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Some ridiculous literally whiteout scenes from gfs 6z at times from next weekend! It's either picking up on something or sincerely feels sorry for us few remaing cold hunters! 

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Lol, I think it would be fair to say that most of the country would get their snow fix if those charts came off, unlike during the winter itself!

Edited by Don
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2 minutes ago, Don said:

Lol, I think it would be fair to say that most of the country would get their snow fix if those charts came off, unlike during the winter itself!

Nice to have you on board Don, and as you know frosty is always flying the flag for a cold hunt, I'm surprised there ain't a bit more Interest! I know there is gonna be a fair few warm spring hunters now, but personally I never really go into spring/summer mode til April. Coupled with the fact we have endured know winter whatsoever and already had an early taste of summer, I think it would be fitting for us to go out with a bang!! One last hoorahh!! Not to much to ask is it!?? A couple of snow events then we can get ready for hopefully another fantastic summer!! ??

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21 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Nice to have you on board Don, and as you know frosty is always flying the flag for a cold hunt, I'm surprised there ain't a bit more Interest! I know there is gonna be a fair few warm spring hunters now, but personally I never really go into spring/summer mode til April. Coupled with the fact we have endured know winter whatsoever and already had an early taste of summer, I think it would be fitting for us to go out with a bang!! One last hoorahh!! Not to much to ask is it!?? A couple of snow events then we can get ready for hopefully another fantastic summer!! ??

Always good to be on board!  Spring 1989 and 2008 were interesting following mild winters, so I would say we have another 5/6 weeks of cold hunting before looking towards later spring warmth and summer!

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

Always good to be on board!  Spring 1989 and 2008 were interesting following mild winters, so I would say we have another 5/6 weeks of cold hunting before looking towards later spring warmth and summer!

Strooth, you even more hardcore than frosty! ?

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Still looks like a few weeks' coldish, and mostly uninspiring weather, to me...Hopefully, though, some much-needed rain might fall...?

You may be correct Edd!! On the other hand perhaps this viscous little low will bring us a surprise as it moves East! That's if it devolops at all! ??

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-1-216.png

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To my mind things are definitely looking up again. And although she's cleared her throat a few times the large lady certainly hasn't broken into song just yet. Over recent GFS runs in FI the mild sectors are getting smaller and the uppers getting colder with each passing system. If we do see some wintry action it will probably be a repeating pattern of heavy wet snow failing to settle or washed away within 24 hours but I'd take that in an instant given the winter we've had so far.

I'm seeing repeated active systems with lots of precipitation passing NW to SE and with uppers just cold enough for snow to low levels. From an IMBY perspective (SE England) the 11th onwards is where things just might get interesting. A key factor at this time of year may well be whether the sweet spot passes over any particular location at night or during the day.

Keep the faith, I've a feeling it's not over just yet...

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