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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


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1 minute ago, Sleet30031972 said:

What on earth are you talking about? One place that cannot really complain about snow is saddleworth! Enough of everyone going on about their nonsensical 'snow shield'

I think based on this winter, just about everyone inside the UK, barring a small portion of the SW can complain about a snow shield. I mean even the snowiest part of the country, the cairngorms appears to have devoloped one this year! ?

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Looking towards the spring equinox the Gfs 00z operational becomes very spring-like with high pressure and a southerly breeze with temperatures into the mid teens celsius range..perhaps upper teens c

Morning all, So, a big pattern change is on the way, as the blocking area of high pressure over Europe the last 7 days slips south to allow Atlantic lows and frontal systems in from the west acro

Right folks after a think im calling time on this cold search, it's been fun while it lasted. I don't feel the need to have to keep coming on here and explaining to certain posters why I post 10 day c

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Just now, Mattwolves said:

I think based on this winter, just about everyone inside the UK, barring a small portion of the SW can complain about a snow shield. I mean even the snowiest part of the country, the cairngorms appears to have devoloped one this year! ?

Aye, but Wiltshire and Somerset don't have one, NW Midlands certainly does

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12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, but Wiltshire and Somerset don't have one, NW Midlands certainly does

We got very lucky with that snow event, it was forecast to last 8 hours for where I live, but ended up snowing for 18 hours! ❄️

I would do anything for a snow event as good as that, but widespread, across the whole country! 

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Continuing with the gfs. By Friday midday a transient ridged has moved over the UK as the trough finally moves away to the east but overnight the next frontal system quickly traverses the country, bringing more rain, snow again on the high ground in the north, and strong winds as the Atlantic moves into gear. Temps still around average or a tad above.

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This windy and unsettled theme continues over the weekend but temps are now dipping quite well below average at times as colder air is sourced

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Edited by knocker
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6z really bringing that snow risk, as early as tomorrow in places and at various times through the next 7-10 days. Could this be the time when more of us get in on the action! I would say for sure some surprises in store, ooohhhh yeehhhhh!! 

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This chart could bring some interest if it comes off, amazing to see some genuinely cold and sometimes snowy scenarios coming in to focus as we now leave meteorological winter! Hell I wouldn't be surprised if hlb sets up sometime this month and we get a continuation of wintry type conditions in to April! The current climate doesn't seem to know whether its coming or going! Could this be the new norm for future Winters! Cold scenarios getting going as we approach March, who knows. We already know that a reduction in the temperature difference from the equator and the pole due to declining sea ice can lead to a - NAO which in turn can lead to colder outbreaks, but perhaps its also possible this scenario Could lead to later outbreaks of cold blasts. I would say most definitely some interesting winters coming up in the next few years! 

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2 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

As last years cold air is now starting to drag down from the north and wintry conditions establishes for most of spring, something in the atmosphere is triggering this effect

Define ‘Wintry conditions’ because what I see on the charts doesn’t really look like wintry conditions to me, more autumnal! I may be incorrect in my memory but March is quite often a month that is Atlantic dominated from what I can remember.

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Define ‘Wintry conditions’ because what I see on the charts doesn’t really look like wintry conditions to me, more autumnal! I may be incorrect in my memory but March is quite often a month that is Atlantic dominated from what I can remember.

Here it will be wintry for sure with nighttime  lows around -8 to 10 Celsius, just 3 days ago we had +13,7 and that is a new record for february. In UK/western europé just slightly below average

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39 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Here it will be wintry for sure with nighttime  lows around -8 to 10 Celsius, just 3 days ago we had +13,7 and that is a new record for february. In UK/western europé just slightly below average

Lol, I don't think everyone is aware your from Sweden. - 10c, my god even I was getting excited then! ?

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The current situation and the forecast analysis for 0600 The cloud associated with Freya can be seen of the 1500 sat image as it forms on the front

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The rain from the frontal system is already well into the north west and tracking south east and by 1800 the cold front is clear of N. Ireland and western Scotland. Through the evening it will slowly track SSE but but by around 0300 it will stall over the south coast as Freya develops and tracks north east, and by 0600 it is edging back north again as a warm front. Simultaneously the main low drifts north of Scotland resulting in gale force winds in northern regions here, perhaps severe gale in western coastal areas, and frequent squally showers, of snow on the higher ground

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I'm really liking the look of the 12z charts, we seem to have currently a very cold mid and North Atlantic, so some of these shots are gonna pack a punch! Snow in the north to start, but later on this risk increases elsewhere!! What with my beloved wolves winning today and these charts, I'm as happy as a pig in muck!!!!! 

Edit... Ensembles not to shabby

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Edited by Mattwolves
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11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm really liking the look of the 12z charts, we seem to have currently a very cold mid and North Atlantic, so some of these shots are gonna pack a punch! Snow in the north to start, but later on this risk increases elsewhere!! What with my beloved wolves winning today and these charts, I'm as happy as a pig in muck!!!!! 

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What's to say they'll verify 

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3 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

What's to say they'll verify 

There is never a guarantee of anything verifying, but its just nice to see em!! And it doesn't take much to excite me. I'm probably just suffering from obsessive compulsive coldie disorder! ??

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