Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Can't help but feel, high pressure doesn't seem to be having has much influence on the ECM! 

Edit... It really is going all pear shaped with the mighty ECM! 

Let's not panic, the ensembles (mean) will probably paint a better picture and at least next week looks very pleasant for much of the uk...and the Ecm is not so mighty, it was abysmal at times during winter with many garden paths leading to nowhere.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Let's not panic, the ensembles (mean) will probably paint a better picture and at least next week looks very pleasant for much of the uk.

Back edge snow event as the low clears anybody?? One for the archives perhaps!!

[SLEETY]

Trending  quite a bit colder again on the ecm  but it is in lala land so won't verify, unless mild is showing at the same timeframe then its nailed on to verify lol

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Back edge snow event as the low clears anybody?? One for the archives perhaps!!

The Gfs parallel has some stiff competion..from the Ecm..yikes

[knocker]

Leaving aside the short range this evening, as there is no huge change from this morning, the ecm gets the change to more unsettled weather underway by  midday Thursday with a major upper trough over Greenland and a strong south westerly flow south of it which within 24 hours does impact Scotland as a front struggles south east bringing patchy rain over the rest  of Friday and Saturday but fizzling out around the borders. temps still a tad above average over the three days but becoming average or tad below in Scotland behind the front.

But a new trough has exited along the Canadian conduit and by midday Sunday is south west of Iceland as the UK is now virtually in a col with a marked N/S temp contrast  But it's the calm before the storm. so to speak, as the vigorous surface low associated with aforementioned trough descends over the UK to bring wet and windy weather on Monday

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The GEFS ensemble control run is a bit of a dogs body beyond next week, more unsettled and quite a bit cooler! Seems to be more akin to the ECM, obviously a long way out and subject to change... But basically just to highlight the possibility. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z has it all..plume potential and snow potential and everything else including the kitchen sink..being serious though, next week the GEFS 12z mean looks peachy for the majority of the uk, only the far north missing out and then it heads towards a north / south split with the north, especially the far north bearing the brunt of the wind, rain and cooler / colder temps whereas southern areas may not see much rain at all and temperatures could stay predominantly in the pleasant category.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Quick look at the Ecm temp profiles later next week and beyond, as you can see quite a drop is evident towards the end. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z mean actually quite boring, and flat, guess the next direction of travel might come from one of operational runs:

Above charts are T240.   Holding pattern prior to summer now I think.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z mean actually quite boring, and flat, guess the next direction of travel might come from one of operational runs:

Above charts are T240.   Holding pattern prior to summer now I think.

At least next week looks nice mike and further out will probably chop and change between changeable and unsettled with the south doing best of all.

[knocker]

The latter stages of the ecm det.run fits in pretty well with the 5-10 EPS mean which then continues the trend that it has been indicating of late of a flatter flow upstream and across the Atlantic, weakening and diverging in the east, courtesy of low pressure in southern Europe. This would indicate dry and settled in the south , perhaps less so in the north with temps around average, perhaps a tad below, But as ever the det. runs will sort the details

Edited March 23, 2019 by knocker

[Mike Poole]

An early look at June courtesy of CFS via Meteociel, last 9 runs (it makes no sense to try to draw conclusions from one single run of CFS - too much uncertainty)

Charts are Z500 anomalies averaged over the whole month:

You would not expect to see the big (and sometimes wrong) signals of winter at this time of year, but there's a good suggestion there of what we think we know already, a summer prone to high pressure dominance.

You could almost say a 'front loaded' summer.......don't start that nonsense again Mike... 

Edited March 23, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

I just hope the CFS has had a factory reset / reboot and an upgrade because it was woeful with its winter charts showing deep freezes for the uk..dare I say the background signals are looking good

Edited March 23, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

CFS seems to be fitting in with what the met are currently saying, latter part of April showing a good deal of high pressure ruling the roost, with temps relatively warm! Let's just see! 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

CFS seems to be fitting in with what the met are currently saying

That's even more worrying considering how the long range outlook for the second half of Jan and all of February went shockingly wrong but with my optimistic hat on..things can only get better?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That's even more worrying considering how the long range outlook for the second half of Jan and all of February went shockingly wrong but with my optimistic hat on..things can only get better?

Personally Karl I think it only takes a minor fly in the ointment to scupper a significant cold spell. We have much more scope and room for error to get a significant warm spell in though! Warm/hot spells are becoming 2 a penny. I would imagine by the time the summer has ended we would have had at least several very warm even hot spells! Trust me Karl..... Them background signals are looking good!

[Mike Poole]

33 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That's even more worrying considering how the long range outlook for the second half of Jan and all of February went shockingly wrong but with my optimistic hat on..things can only get better?

The long range model output (not just CFS) has been woeful for winter in recent years, yes, I would agree, but it hasn't been anywhere near that bad for summer, and last year was very useful in trying to predict a game change summer, one very different to the previous 5 or so.   

Edited March 23, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

The long range model output has been woeful for winter in recent years, yes, I would agree, but it hasn't been anywhere near that bad for summer, and last year was very useful in trying to predict a game change summer, one very different to the previous 5 or so.   

Yes mike and if I remember rightly you called last summer well before summer so if you're happy, i'm happy..agree with Matt too

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes mike and if I remember rightly you called last summer well before summer so if you're happy, i'm happy..agree with Matt too

That's that then chaps... Sounds like we are all happy have to agree Karl, Mike is one of the better and more informative posters on here and tbh we have quite a few of them! YOU KNOW WHO U ARE FOLK'S!!

Edited March 23, 2019 by Mattwolves

[ANYWEATHER]

April will bring a settled start ....Just watch out folks Snow yes Bloody  Snow will fall in many places during April

[Mike Poole]

Caption competition anyone?

'My deal or no deal'

Thats my paltry effort, not making a political point either way, can you do better?

Edited March 23, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Gfs 18z operational shows a wintry start to April...Fools Day

[Frosty.]

Quite a nice warm up towards the end of the 18z..recurring theme in that range!

Edited March 23, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Oh god not again, I can't take much more of this!!! Incoming........ - 8 uppers..... Help...... For the 100th time its finally coming.... Or is it!!!!! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ay up.. What's going on here then?? There is cold pools cropping up all over the place now!