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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


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21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM at T 240:

image.thumb.jpg.00f0431d1d1f5adf9c110fa1f5afc15a.jpg

Its fascinating to me that this kind of settled scenario can be nailed by the models up to 10 days out, but that snow bringing scenarios in winter are always subject to uncertainty until 4 days out.   Obviously we will have to see how this evolution goes, but I have high confidence in the development of a settled spell, and longer implications for late spring and early summer to be a northerly flowing jet once again. 

Amazing ain't it Mike, how high pressure can set up in a favourable position to bring us warmer conditions from the south, the south east and even east when it gets to March, April onwards, but we can never seem to get heights to set up shop to our NW or NE!! during the winter months! The models seem that unfamiliar with a cold type scenario setting up, that they really do struggle with it beyond a few days! 

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Looking towards the spring equinox the Gfs 00z operational becomes very spring-like with high pressure and a southerly breeze with temperatures into the mid teens celsius range..perhaps upper teens c

Morning all, So, a big pattern change is on the way, as the blocking area of high pressure over Europe the last 7 days slips south to allow Atlantic lows and frontal systems in from the west acro

Right folks after a think im calling time on this cold search, it's been fun while it lasted. I don't feel the need to have to keep coming on here and explaining to certain posters why I post 10 day c

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Wow that's EMPHATIC support..!!..it's disappointing that the winter total fail has spilled into spring but I guess it's par for the course where uk coldies are concerned, however, I don't think anyone would really be unhappy about warm anticyclonic weather..I hope this verifies!!?

need to qualify this.....what has been a 'fail' for some was the complete opposite for others........south of the M4, with nearly 30cm of snow in one sitting....no fail there!

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4 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

need to qualify this.....what has been a 'fail' for some was the complete opposite for others........south of the M4, with nearly 30cm of snow in one sitting....no fail there!

So because  we had 1 decent snowfall in a smallish location that adds up to a decent winter! 3 months of winter and that's all it could come up with! Compared to winters gone by this really was an epic fail. When you look at 2009 and 2010....you have to say even 1 decent snowfall couldnt save this winter from being nothing short of shambolic! 

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16 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

need to qualify this.....what has been a 'fail' for some was the complete opposite for others........south of the M4, with nearly 30cm of snow in one sitting....no fail there!

It's been utter garbage up here and for most of the uk where it was more like 3 extra months of october but I'm happy with the settled warm anticyclonic models we are seeing now for next week onwards!?

Edited by Frosty.
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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

To digress for moment. I would have thought this winter was an unqualified success as it has successfully managed to royally aggravate all the chionophiles  Hallelujah praise the Lord

Chio and catacol, whatever happened to the pair of them, not seen them post for weeks! 

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6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So because  we had 1 decent snowfall in a smallish location that adds up to a decent winter! 3 months of winter and that's all it could come up with! Compared to winters gone by this really was an epic fail. When you look at 2009 and 2010....you have to say even 1 decent snowfall couldnt save this winter from being nothing short of shambolic! 

decent?.....a snowfall that would be considered of epic proportions   by the vast majority of people living in this country (if asked the question, 'is 25-30cm decent or epic)!.......and it was not in a 'smallish location'...try most of southern england and a sizeable chunk of the west country....Scotland's had plenty of snow, as have parts of Wales and Ireland...It's generally been an average winter for many, some snow, some rain, some wind, cold days & mild days., pretty much the climatological norm......Outside this forum, people who have not been privvy to the model outputs faux pas this winter would probably deem the winter season thoroughly average, not crap, not good.....winters such as 2009/10 and late 2018 season have been exceptions and not the norm

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's been utter garbage up here and for most of the uk where it was more like 3 extra months of october but I'm happy with the settled warm anticyclonic models we are seeing now for next week onwards!?

I refer the honourable gentleman to answer I gave some moments ago.....shame it's been crap for you Karl (being the snow lover we all know) but crap for you doesn't mean crap for everyone....................that's my opinion, and now I'm off for some gin based cocktails

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Just now, beerandkebab said:

decent?.....a snowfall that would be considered of epic proportions   by the vast majority of people living in this country (if asked the question, 'is 25-30cm decent or epic)!.......and it was not in a 'smallish location'...try most of southern england and a sizeable chunk of the west country....Scotland's had plenty of snow, as have parts of Wales and Ireland...It's generally been an average winter for many, some snow, some rain, some wind, cold days & mild days., pretty much the climatological norm......Outside this forum, people who have not been privvy to the model outputs faux pas this winter would probably deem the winter season thoroughly average, not crap, not good.....winters such as 2009/10 and late 2018 season have been exceptions and not the norm

The point you make is fair, the point you miss is the epic winter that most on here and all the so called best meteorologists predicted for us! The winters you mention, ie 09/10 was 2 a penny back in the 80s! The entire winter was milder than normal and drier than normal! The Scottish ski resorts have had a torrid time till very recently! Nthly winds for instance have become as extinct as dinasaurs! 

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6 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

I refer the honourable gentleman to answer I gave some moments ago.....shame it's been crap for you Karl (being the snow lover we all know) but crap for you doesn't mean crap for everyone....................that's my opinion, and now I'm off for some gin based cocktails

Fantastic ending to a post! Love it. ?

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2 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

I refer the honourable gentleman to answer I gave some moments ago.....shame it's been crap for you Karl (being the snow lover we all know) but crap for you doesn't mean crap for everyone....................that's my opinion, and now I'm off for some gin based cocktails

Shame I don't have any good memories of the last 3 months but I'm pleased for you, really am?...anyway, thankfully this unsettled spell is coming to an end and next week, potentially even the following week(s) could be very pleasant for most.

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

The point you make is fair, the point you miss is the epic winter that most on here and all the so called best meteorologists predicted for us! The winters you mention, ie 09/10 was 2 a penny back in the 80s! The entire winter was milder than normal and drier than normal! The Scottish ski resorts have had a torrid time till very recently! Nthly winds for instance have become as extinct as dinasaurs! 

generally agree with your post Matt, the expectations were raised though the roof due to model outputs shown throughout the winter period, they caught most on here out (and that's not a knock on anyone as one can only analyse the model output that is erm, output...lol).......Haven't seen the stats re. this winter....Thought the Scots had done well, happy to be corrected........it was dry and pretty banal during parts of Jan and Feb down here, but in the last few weeks the incessant wind and rain have certainly made up for it!

the 80's certainly down south were not 2 a penny, some were horrifically mild and snowless

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3 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

generally agree with your post Matt, the expectations were raised though the roof due to model outputs shown throughout the winter period, they caught most on here out (and that's not a knock on anyone as one can only analyse the model output that is erm, output...lol).......Haven't seen the stats re. this winter....Thought the Scots had done well, happy to be corrected........it was dry and pretty banal during parts of Jan and Feb down here, but in the last few weeks the incessant wind and rain have certainly made up for it!

the 80's certainly down south were not 2 a penny, some were horrifically mild and snowless

Early 80s mainly, I only pointed it out because I can remember periods of snow and cold that would be around for 2 weeks! Rather than 2 days these days. Oh and as you will know 87!! What a spell that was! I was told by somebody who works at the cairngorm range back in mid January that they was having a poor season, so I'm not gonna say 100% sure. Anyway thanks for your input BAK, I don't want to spoil your cocktail hour, you sound like James bond!! Over and out Mrs money penny!! ??

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31 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So because  we had 1 decent snowfall in a smallish location that adds up to a decent winter! 3 months of winter and that's all it could come up with! Compared to winters gone by this really was an epic fail. When you look at 2009 and 2010....you have to say even 1 decent snowfall couldnt save this winter from being nothing short of shambolic! 

agree with AJ, for his location, it's been a great winter, possibly even best in the m/e, but for north of M4 worst in history for many

If I lived in AJ's location I'd be amazed with the winter, lucky you still don't live here AJ

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree with AJ, for his location, it's been a great winter, possibly even best in the m/e, but for north of M4 worst in history for many

If I lived in AJ's location I'd be amazed with the winter, lucky you still don't live here AJ

I'm never really one for inyabackyardism, so i was just summing the winter as a whole throughout the UK up. But Yeh I can understand those who ended up with a foot of snow can say they had a decent one. ?

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15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree with AJ, for his location, it's been a great winter, possibly even best in the m/e, but for north of M4 worst in history for many

If I lived in AJ's location I'd be amazed with the winter, lucky you still don't live here AJ

Aye Mark, Penkridge was pants from what I've heard.....Still, even 09/10 wasn;t great when I lived there, cold but not especially snowy......I digress, sorry I'm taking this off topic mods, so I must dash, gin cocktails need to be shaken (not stirred) and I need to appropriate some maize based nibbles

Edited by beerandkebab
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Just looking at the extended range GEFS 12z and there really is potential for some long draw very warm southerly winds with temps into the 20's celsius..considering almost 22c 72f was recorded in late Feb..I'm sure there's a chance at the end of March /  start of April!!!!???

Edited by Frosty.
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2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Chio and catacol, whatever happened to the pair of them, not seen them post for weeks! 

To be fair Catacol did sign off on this winter with several posts admitting we were in the last chance saloon . We await the post mortem from the strat guys

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The Gfs18z is looking good for plenty of very mild / warm and largely settled weather with higher pressure, not only next week but further ahead too..very similar high res to the 12z with most of any atlantic weather brushing around the top of the high and only really affecting the far NW / N later next week when it also becomes rather cooler further north for a time..all in all its looking like pleasant calmer spring weather is set to replace all the wind and rain very soon!?

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26 minutes ago, Weathervane said:

To be fair Catacol did sign off on this winter with several posts admitting we were in the last chance saloon . We await the post mortem from the strat guys

I wasn't aware, I know they are both very astute posters! And tbh I think quicksilver did a brilliant summary on where it wrong a while back, not sure if Mike as done one yet, or he is just concentrating on the forthcoming summer!! I would love to hear Karl's... Aka frosty, summary on it, think he would plain and simply put it like this..... Its been rubbish... Roll on summer!!! Love it ??

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what’s going on with the gfs ensembles,over 20 c difference between them and some breach the minus 10 line! ecm had a big difference as well,maybe it’s about to begin ,finally ?

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