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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

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Just do not understand the excitement. Unless you live on a mountain then it's 6 degrees, rain and wind for most of us at the time of the year when the weather should be improving.

Edited by Snowy L
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1 hour ago, knocker said:

Sat image 1130. A thickening veil of Cs has arrived here

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2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Just do not understand the excitement. Unless you live on a mountain then it's 6 degrees, rain and wind for most of us at the time of the year when the weather should be improving.

I think there has been excitement over the gfs runs also impressive ensembles regarding cold enough uppers for snow! But like I said earlier the other models are having non of it. Not sure about the weather should be improving now idea, March is a funny month, it will literally throw every type of weather at us! If things are showing know signs of becoming settled and warmer by end of April, then perhaps its time to complain about it. I feel Confident there will be a lot of fine warm spells this coming spring and summer, so I'm just willing to ride this month out... Basically if we can't get a proper cold shot with snow, then bring on summer I say... And the sooner the bloody better! 👍

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17 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Just do not understand the excitement. Unless you live on a mountain then it's 6 degrees, rain and wind for most of us at the time of the year when the weather should be improving.

You won't need to be on a mountain to see snow tomorrow although at least modest elevation and further north will help. Even if we don't see arctic air there will at least be bursts of polar maritime..I'm certainly not seeing a tropical maritime dominated outlook..to me it looks predominantly cool / cold zonal with a dash of arctic potential next weekend.

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24 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Just do not understand the excitement. Unless you live on a mountain then it's 6 degrees, rain and wind for most of us at the time of the year when the weather should be improving.

Good chance of seeing snow falling away from western coasts in northern England on Sunday, more especially the morning, but settling snow away from high ground looks to be a struggle, given temperatures at lower elevations are forecast to reach 5-6C. 

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Exeter certainly don't support the snow and arctic plunge idea from the gfs 0z / 6z next weekend or beyond..Indeed there is NO mention of snow or even wintry showers in either of the longer range updates today.. Longer term it's still looking good for spring warmth and settled through late March and especially early April.

Indeed, the metoffice have if anything backed away from wintry potential.  Looks like the GFS is having a laugh at this stage, but would be great if it’s on the money!

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The squally showers will continue this evening over Scotland until around midnight but rain will shortly be into Cornwall and will track north east this evening, overnight and tomorrow morning. By around 0600 it will be joined by another belt over N, Ireland associated with the occlusion which iwill track east through the morning, There will be some snow on the first batch over the higher ground Wales and the Midlands, and ditto N. Ireland, northern England and Scotland on the occlusion. Perhaps falling to lower levels in the north, particularly in Scotland

Another feature will be the wind which pick up quite markedly through tonight and tomorrow morning in the south west as the wave passes through

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Edited by knocker
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54 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Good chance of seeing snow falling away from western coasts in northern England on Sunday, more especially the morning, but settling snow away from high ground looks to be a struggle, given temperatures at lower elevations are forecast to reach 5-6C. 

What about the showers on Sunday night?, any chance of accumulations from those?

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

Just do not understand the excitement. Unless you live on a mountain then it's 6 degrees, rain and wind for most of us at the time of the year when the weather should be improving.

This is the reason for my excitement. I realise it is not exactly the Day after tomorrow but, rather incredibly, this is the most wintry Netweather forecast that I have had for my location at a 24 hour mark ALL 'winter'. I might be scraping the barrel but I will take anything now 🙂 Yet to see any settling snow this winter for, I think, the first time EVER. I live in hope that might change this week 🙂 

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What about the showers on Sunday night?, any chance of accumulations from those?

Certainly greater chance for snow to fall to lower levels across much of England and Wales from any wintry showers spreading SE following the day time's rain, sleet and northern snow, as drier surface flow spreads SE / dew points fall below freezing. Whether the snow will settle and accumulate at lower levels remains to be seen, guess the showers will have to be heavy enough to lower surface temps.

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Potentially some nasty winds in the north west as the low tracks south east

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Absolutely bizzare that even gfs and gfsp can be so far apart regarding the Nthly! 

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11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Absolutely bizzare that even gfs and gfsp can be so far apart regarding the Nthly! 

 

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Hope the P is right..looks a potent blast👍😍❄️

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Just look at this from gfsp 12z, literally pulling in the - 12c uppers. Just what is going on... I have a feeling in me water this is gonna be a strange month! 

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I tell you folks gfs 12z as lost the plot or is on to something!! If it nails this then fair play.... We go out with a bang!!! 

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2 hours ago, Nick F said:

Good chance of seeing snow falling away from western coasts in northern England on Sunday, more especially the morning, but settling snow away from high ground looks to be a struggle, given temperatures at lower elevations are forecast to reach 5-6C. 

It also looked a struggle last sunday and look what happened across eastern ireland!

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1 minute ago, Stonethecrows said:

It also looked a struggle last sunday and look what happened across eastern ireland!

The same help is needed evapourtive cooling although tomorrow looks "more on" than last Sundays surprise snow.

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13 minutes ago, The PIT said:

tomorrow looks "more on" than last Sundays surprise snow.

Agreed, these charts are much more supportive of snow than last sunday..the uppers for example and the size of the snow risk area!👍

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3 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

I think there has been excitement over the gfs runs also impressive ensembles regarding cold enough uppers for snow! But like I said earlier the other models are having non of it. Not sure about the weather should be improving now idea, March is a funny month, it will literally throw every type of weather at us! If things are showing know signs of becoming settled and warmer by end of April, then perhaps its time to complain about it. I feel Confident there will be a lot of fine warm spells this coming spring and summer, so I'm just willing to ride this month out... Basically if we can't get a proper cold shot with snow, then bring on summer I say... And the sooner the bloody better! 👍

The Battle of Towton (the bloodiest battle in British history) was fought in a heavy snow storm back on the 29th March 1461. So there's hope for us yet! 

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9 minutes ago, Jason74 said:

The Battle of Towton (the bloodiest battle in British history) was fought in a heavy snow storm back on the 29th March 1461. So there's hope for us yet! 

Yes indeed, there was some very cold weather during the 14th century, we had just gone past the medieval warm spell! I would imagine as it stands we would require one hell of an effort to have a repeat of those circumstances. 

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Just now, Frosty. said:

Charts?:whistling::gathering:

I dont think meteociel or wetterzentrale was running then frosty, but my god if they would have been, there would have been some stonking runs!! 👍😜

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I dont think meteociel or wetterzentrale was running then frosty, but my god if they would have been, there would have been some stonking runs!! 👍😜

Yes I was going to look at the wetterzentrale archives but I don't think they go back to 1461 do they?😁:crazy:

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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Charts?:whistling::gathering:

😂

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Yes I was going to look at the wetterzentrale archives but I don't think they go back to 1461 do they?😁:crazy:

Try the 15th Century?🤓

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