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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, more like plagued by north sea filth..thankfully, no sign of that dross anytime soon!

Rather that than heat. 9c in june - look forward to it.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Rather that than heat. 9c in june - look forward to it.

Really Feb, you would welcome 9c and totally dreary conditions in June? 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

If this is the extended outlook I will be a happy bunny!!

1_240_500mb.png

1_246_2mtmpmax.png

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted
25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not necessarily for NE England.

image.thumb.png.6a9bb6568c3ed783b39d6978ee6f4e8d.png

Good point. Maybe I should've said warm uppers. I'd hate to be on the east coast in an easterly that's anything other than slack.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Popular Post
Posted
16 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Really Feb, you would welcome 9c and totally dreary conditions in June? 

As low temps as poss and as much PPN as poss, thats my genuine summer weather preference, nothing to do with winding people up, although admittedly aggravating the heatophiles would be a bonus!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

GEM 12z goes for an extended settled period too, here T240:

image.thumb.jpg.70435852ef9f3bff6b9726bfedfa8254.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.a5a7c77a0d146aff4cc249045977b7c4.jpg

Jet stream well north, but I don't think this is summer come early yet, twists and turns likely in April I think.

Meanwhile up in the strat, the vortex is deintensifying  quickly, according to GFS forecast, and from being near record intensity, could actually achieve final warming near average date.  Ties in with what others have mentioned re Easterly winds in April and early May? Model guidance (long range) still for heat into summer proper...

image.thumb.jpg.0808409121e7708066663980d8c97615.jpg

Edit, finally got my post sorted!

Edited by Mike Poole
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM 12z goes for an extended settled period too, here T240:

image.thumb.jpg.70435852ef9f3bff6b9726bfedfa8254.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.a5a7c77a0d146aff4cc249045977b7c4.jpg

Jet stream well north, but I don't think this is summer come early yet, twists and turns likely in April I think.

You thinking what I'm thinking Mike, still a potentially colder spell left in the locker perhaps!!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
32 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

You thinking what I'm thinking Mike, still a potentially colder spell left in the locker perhaps!!

You never know

17_384_850tmp.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
46 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

You thinking what I'm thinking Mike, still a potentially colder spell left in the locker perhaps!!

Aye...the 'cold locker' must be bursting at the seams!:oldgrin:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye...the 'cold locker' must be bursting at the seams!:oldgrin:

LOL maybe April will deliver..just used up my last straw:help:

Looking at the current output i don't see a wintry blast before the end of march..just watch the 18z show one now!!!:crazy: 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Just to point out I have know hard feelings for the mildies brigade, here's one for you.... 

gens-1-0-276.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Just to point out I have know hard feelings for the mildies brigade, here's one for you.... 

gens-1-0-276.png

I quite like that..sorry fellow coldies

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

I quite like that..sorry fellow coldies

That's breaking the 20c barrier Karl... Even more with sunny skies! 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

That's breaking the 20c barrier Karl... Even more with sunny skies! 

Indeed, I will happily take that before the big april freeze! 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

18z and ECM not on the same page at 120hrs!

gfs-1-120.png

ECM0-120.gif

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Interesting creature coming in from the Atlantic at T156 on the pub run, nosing in, trailing fin might give Cornwall a slap! 

image.thumb.jpg.ef298031ca31c7b6d8324fa76db47fad.jpg

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
Just now, Mattwolves said:

18z and ECM not on the same page at 120hrs!

gfs-1-120.png

 

Wow look at that cold air piling in from the NW!..amazing!:shok:..it's finally catching up to the Gfs(P)

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow look at that cold air piling in from the NW!..amazing!:shok:..it's finally catching up to the Gfs(P)

Forget the NW,look NE:cold:

gfsnh-0-216.thumb.png.861d8f645d31649ce9f3671467cb7182.pnggfsnh-1-216.thumb.png.be7e89671a7a85209c8dc5c22a8f0675.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

18z making a decent attempt to build these heights N/NE, JUST LOOK HOW CLOSE THE COLD AIR IS!!!! 

gfs-0-222.png

gfs-1-222.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Battleground scenario!!! It's desperate to get in. Will it... Won't it. Come onnn!!!! Get in there!!! 

 

18z lost the plot their and it all went a bit Pete tong, at least it's trying, a round of applause for perseverance!!

gfs-1-240.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Battleground scenario!!! It's desperate to get in. Will it... Won't it. Come onnn!!!! Get in there!!! 

gfs-1-240.png

Cold air to the west..Cold air to the east..bog all in the middle!..story of the winter!:whistling:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Anyway, the 18z is a dream run for those who love high pressure..

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

Outlook - As mentioned last evening thee is a strong upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the complex vortex, which crosses the Atlantic and swings around the ridge to the European trough. In consequence a NW/SE split develops over the UK with some frontal systems impinging the former

3-8.thumb.png.013ff60458eb2e90bbb177951655c16c.png

The NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0500 UK surface chart

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.ede4f9495841c6ddce23f0727e0f0a96.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.8ad3e9c24ee80a063c05aef91f47a39d.gif05.thumb.gif.404d4e8b6d35427de6b66141e74d632d.gif

A relatively mild start to the day apart from pockets of frost in the NE and quite and clear in the east but cloud and rain associated with the occlusion, already into western areas, will spread east during the day reaching the south east late on

p09.thumb.png.c463a17d0bf4939ca8488e286df09e3c.pngp15.thumb.png.ded2c062583ec35e3db89024cadd6a68.png143370486_maxm.thumb.png.f5feb57350162b4b50f0668e22372316.png

With the weakening occlusion stalled across the country tonight generally cloudy with the odd patch of mist and fog in the south but a bit breezier with some patchy rain in the north with the triple point in close attendance associated with lows pressure systems to the NW

PPVE89.thumb.gif.e073be345bda0f5fd5f517f5946ac2e2.gif

A not dissimilar day on Tuesday with cloud and some drizzle in the west but where the cloud clears in the south east it could well become quite warm

PPVG89.thumb.gif.4eff5014341c1749721531621f12a1d8.gif1867443754_maxt.thumb.png.ad68802b8dfcb6e97039aeada4e08ced.png

Over Tuesday night and through Wednesday the cold front has made slow progress south east across the country but a wave has formed on it away to the south west and has tracked north east west of Ireland which halts any more progress/ Thus some rain and cloud in the north north but drier further south and now quite warm with temps above average

. PPVI89.thumb.gif.e3f391b1dcdcb3f545ef8b82c75b74e3.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.b2e31fbf24e684e7efa1bc3ad2aa6e9f.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.1237a713138a8e25c350508b5b0789a2.png

Over Wednesday night the wave continues to track north east and deepen resulting in it remaining quite windy with intermittent rain in the north

PPVK89.thumb.gif.58b9fe62d41d1158a0d5c665d34f1739.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_14.thumb.png.8be74cb721ece53aeba24a874b246bc5.png

A not dissimilar story on Thursday but with the cold front making some progress south east more persistent rain over N. Ireland and Scotland and again temps above average

PPVM89.thumb.gif.e54db2e96a13983fa0d10f3dddc1cd92.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.745ce5fcc7b0f5af7d0a68c24b893fb4.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.ec3bfab2209a3274ca7b59e32c31f262.png

By Friday the front has stalled across N. Ireland and the borders so still cloudy with patchy rain over N/ Ireland and Scotland and a tad more N/S temp contrast. And keep in mind the opening comment

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.e0f71d58e3493f4a1ace2eaefa5badfe.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.91a2f595b585b2e6acca6441bbd6c79d.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.46d707e946cfe39d1830866ea1849b1a.png

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

To continue briefly with the gfs  Another wave on the front brings more wet and windy weather to the north on Saturday but then, over the next couple of days, a lobe of the vortex drops into the NW Atlantic and renewed amplification ensues with the subtropical high ridging over the UK again

gfs_z500_vort_natl_23.thumb.png.6469c6503cf5418a24d57276e9dd2e50.pnggfs_z500a_nh_31.thumb.png.b705b04598b2c34afdcb5a68d1bf6ca1.png

And from this point the surface high cell manages to remain in close proximity to the UK, despite being pushed east by the emery in the west. Thus the UK staying dry and warm with temps a tad above average., albeit with some chilly nights

gfs_z500_vort_natl_39.thumb.png.f1c8cb4c843179b1eacba650cc7572b2.png

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