Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[MATTWOLVES 3]

More positive if you like mild from the old gfs! Can't help but notice all the cold to our west and east though!! The coldie in me keeps trying to break free! 

[Frosty.]

I think the Gfs(p) has a cold bias..not that there's anything wrong with that, I have a cold bias in winter!!

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think the Gfs(p) has a cold bias..not that there's anything wrong with that, I have a cold bias in winter!!

GFS (P) is a teaser to coldies.  Evil model!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Decent run till end of march, then it possibly breaks down from the NW, highlighting exters thoughts perhaps! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Brace yaselfs another cold blast from the north incoming!!! 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Brace yaselfs another cold blast from the north incoming!!! 

 

 

 

The coldie in me gets a shiver of excitement from those charts even though I'm looking forward to the warmer anticyclonic spell..I'm very conflicted right now!!

Edited March 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[kold weather]

GFSp has been delayed till August because it is too cold in the lower atmosphere and I've seen this problem alot recently, often being 1-2c colder than other models.

Unfortunately it has all the old problems the old GFS had when it was around in the 00s

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The coldie in me gets a shiver of excitement from those charts even though I'm looking forward to the warmer anticyclonic spell..I'm very conflicted right now!!

Once a coldie, always a coldie, its in ya blood Karl!

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFSp has been delayed till August because it is too cold in the lower atmosphere and I've seen this problem alot recently, often being 1-2c colder than other models.

Unfortunately it has all the old problems the old GFS had when it was around in the 00s

I've been waiting years for the gfs to correct it's progressive eastward bias..still waiting!!

Edited March 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I don't know about cold bias but it's running at a snails pace again, and just look at the chart, it looks like a bunch of kids have had a fit with a crayon set!! It's all over the place! 

[Coopsy]

5 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

You could be on to something Don. I feel we could be in trouble with water if we have a repeat of last year! Mike feels pretty confident of a very good summer going on GLOSEA5 predictions. I know seasonal forecasts can be very hit and miss.... But their are signs emerging! 

As of the end of February the uk agency stated that reservoirs in England were at 90% full. It’s been a wet march and I’d anticipate them being close to full by end of spring. Last year we were ok and it was one of the driests spells on record. No worries to be had IMO. 

Edited March 17, 2019 by CanadianCoops

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, CanadianCoops said:

As of the end of February the uk agency stated that reservoirs in England were at 90% full. It’s been a wet march and I’d anticipate them being close to full by end of spring. Last year we were ok and it was one of the driests spells on record. No worries to be had IMO. 

Thanks for that, it's quite surprised me though. It seems like their as hardly been any rainfall over the last few months. But what you say is most definitely a good thing.

[Methuselah]

Well I don't know about any cold (I've had my inner-coldie put into stasis) but those uppers, down over North Africa, are starting to look quite impressive...for the time of year?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Well I don't know about any cold (I've had my inner-coldie put into stasis) but those uppers, down over North Africa, are starting to look quite impressive...for the time of year?

You've been saying that since January Ed.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

 It seems like their as hardly been any rainfall over the last few months.

I think it has more to do with the late feb heatwave and those fires on saddleworth moor ..looking at the models, it could be that  most areas will become much drier than average during the next few weeks which would be a relief for the areas currently flooded!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think it has more to do with the late feb heatwave and those fires on saddleworth moor ..looking at the models, it could be that  most areas will become much drier than average during the next few weeks which would be a relief for the areas currently flooded!

The para throwing up that more unsettled spell come Months end! But like you said earlier let's just enjoy the next 10 day's and see wheir it takes us.

[Frosty.]

Have to say, the Gefs 12z mean is looking predominantly peachy if you like high pressure and fine pleasant spring weather..who doesnt?!!

[Frosty.]

Mostly settled Ecm 12z, especially further south with plenty of high pressure but there is a blip on fri/sat with some rain sliding SE heralding a colder saturday but then another high pressure cell from the west takes over and temperatures quickly recover back up to very pleasant values..for northern uk, especially the far north it's a changeable cooler run with occasional strong winds but for the majority winds become much lighter and with predominantly dry conditions with sunny spells it looks very pleasant but where skies clear overnight it turns chilly with a touch of frost and a risk of patchy fog, probably most likely in rural areas..it's looking like a good week ahead for many.

Edited March 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You beat me to it again Karl, won't bother cluttering the place up with more charts. I was basically going to state the same as you, apart from the fact their still seems to be quite a bit of cold to our East! It's certainly warmer at 120hrs than the gfs was. Not bad overall though, but I still have this little feeling that colder Conditions could trouble us at some point!

[MP-R]

4 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

May!!!! The dreaded Easterly in May.... Loads of low cloud coming of the North Sea and spoiling all the sun for Eastern areas, as it takes for ever to burn back to the coast! 

9 out of 10 easterlies in May are warm and 9 out of 10 northerlies in April don’t even happen lol so all’s good. For a proper April northerly we need a decent high to the northwest where low pressure loves to persist, now more than ever it would seem. Perhaps with a pattern change though it’s possible.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, MP-R said:

9 out of 10 easterlies in May are warm and 9 out of 10 northerlies in April don’t even happen lol so all’s good. For a proper April northerly we need a decent high to the northwest where low pressure loves to persist, now more than ever it would seem. Perhaps with a pattern change though it’s possible.

Was just thinking about that MP-R, just takin a gander at the cma and cfs, not everyone's cup of tea I know, cma at day 10 as quite a lot of cold out East, and the CFS is putting us in to an Arctic sourced regime in to April, long way off and unlikely to verify, but interesting non the less! 

 

Edit.... As you can see heights trying to set up shop in that most elusive of places! 

Edited March 17, 2019 by Mattwolves

[knocker]

The latter half of the ecm det. run illustrates the resilience of the subtropical ridge in the face of a lot of energy crossing the Atlantic towards the European trough

And the 5-10 EPS this evening gives a good overview of this with high amplification upstream vis the ridge NW North America/Hudson Bay vortex/trough complex with the strong upper exiting the eastern seaboard south of the latter across the Atlantic and around the ridge.

[Frosty.]

In terms of longevity..this is a cracking T+240 Ecm 12z ensemble mean with high pressure in charge!

Edited March 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

22 minutes ago, MP-R said:

9 out of 10 easterlies in May are warm and 9 out of 10 northerlies in April don’t even happen lol so all’s good. For a proper April northerly we need a decent high to the northwest where low pressure loves to persist, now more than ever it would seem. Perhaps with a pattern change though it’s possible.

Not necessarily for NE England.

Edited March 17, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not necessarily for NE England.

Indeed, more like plagued by north sea filth..thankfully, no sign of that dross anytime soon!