Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This just came up for frame 324hrs on gfsp.... Complete whiteout!!!!! Lol

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

This just came up for frame 324hrs on gfsp.... Complete whiteout!!!!! Lol

Haha good one..anyway, that's all from me today..night all

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Haha good one..anyway, that's all from me today..night all

Almost looks like the arctic is takin a leak on us, or taking the P.... One or the other!!!

[knocker]

Outlook -  Calmer and drier for most next week but before then...........................

The Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0500 surface chart

The frontal system that brought the wind and rain last night will clear to the east very soon leaving much of the country with wintry showers, particularly the N/NW where the mix will include hail, snow and thunder. But the cold front, not for the first time, will linger over the south west so more cloud and persistent rain in this region. The wind will abate somewhat through the day.

But through the evening another wave is forming on the aforementioned front west of southern Ireland and this will start to deepen and track north east through the evening and overnight, Ergo the front will start to return north east as a warm front and a band of heavy rain will effect all areas south of the north of England by 0600, But when it reaches the colder air from the Midlands upwards the rain could well be of snow down to low levels And by morning the wind will again be picking up in the south west

Through Saturday the wave will continue to deepen and cross the country around the border region and this track is vital in determining the area that will be effected by snow. And through the day the very strong winds will effect much of England and Wales but particularly the south west and southern regions

Through Saturday night and Sunday the wave continues to deepen as it moves east into southern Norway so the continuous rain and snow will give way to a clearer and colder north westerly with squally wintry showers, particularly in northern and western regions, which could well include hail and snow in the mix. A colder day with temps a tad below average.

Over Sunday night a ridge moves east over the UK which will calm things down a tad

So now, over Monday and Tuesday, we have reached the calmer phase of the evolution as mentioned at the beginning , with the subtropical high to the south west exerting itself but always to remember there is still a lot of energy exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic putting it under pressure. Anyway, sunny intervals on Monday with perhaps some rain in the north west; cloudier but dry on Tuesday. Temps warming up a tad by Tuesday

 

Edited March 15, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

To continue briefly with the ecm. As mentioned yesterday another low forms in the trough south of the vortex along the eastern seaboard which is east of Newfoundland by t144  It continues to track north east into the central Atlantic and then east which puts a lot of pressure on the ridge which eventually gives way. But apart from the NW the country remains dry until late on with temps a tad above average

[knocker]

The ext EPS this morning still has the Alaskan ridge/Hudson Bay vortex complex and a trough in the NW Atlantic with a strong upper flow exiting the seaboard south of it. But with the subtropical high still amplifying north east in the vicinity of the UK the flow diverges and weakens in the eastern Atlantic portending quieter period of weather but trending towards a N/S split over the UK with temps varying around the average keeping this in mind. Last evening's NOAA in the same ball park

[knocker]

The trailing front

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Quite a lot going on over the next few days with the weather, even some snow in the mix before more settled Conditions arrive next week, before perhaps turning a bit more unsettled and cooler later. On a positive note for mildies, the 6z has high pressure slap bang over us come months end, with temps on the rise! Long way off, but the sign is there. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

And as per usual a Completely different take on things from the GFSP at a similar time frame, with a continental feed, but not a cold one! More of a SE, with the cold air being bottled to the NE! but tbh the GFSP seems to show a cold outcome everyday, and rarely does it come off! 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended keeps high pressure over the UK but still the risk of some rain in the north

 

[Frosty.]

Signs on the Gfs 6z operational of winter trying to bite back, especially for the north and there is plenty of high pressure too but I must mention tomorrow's snow across northern uk with up to 8 inches on higher ground and drifting around in the strong Easterly winds!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Nice CFS.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Signs on the Gfs 6z operational of winter trying to bite back, especially for the north and there is plenty of high pressure too but I must mention tomorrow's snow across northern uk with up to 8 inches on higher ground and drifting around in the strong Easterly winds!!

Wow!!  Now that's what I call a winter forecast! Yet again frosty March proving very much How it's a transition month. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nice CFS.

Its a shame this model is gaining about as much respect as the new gfsp Feb! All models deserve a little respect... If I recall it was the icon that caught the failed Easterly out in Jan! So you just never know. 

[Methuselah]

06Z ends on a rather tasty note: 

[Frosty.]

It's a shame tomorrow's snow up north will barely get a mention on here..well apart from me and a few others..quite a major event for the time of year though, even if it was mid winter!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

06Z ends on a rather tasty note: 

Yes Ed, it's a very positive ending from the 6z,and at complete loggerheads with the para model, these boys at GFS need to sort this out! They currently have 2 models giving out completely different output! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's a shame tomorrow's snow up north will barely get a mention on here..well apart from me and a few others..quite a major event for the time of year though, even if it was mid winter!!

Duely noted frosty, I thought the same, if this would have been 6 weeks back there would have been much more drama on here! I think most now have had enough of chasing the isolated snow event! Like cheeky monkey said the other day..... Snow at back end of march is like a slap in the face after a poor winter!! Personally I think it's a good idea at anytime, but he has a point! 

[Don]

27 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Snow at back end of march is like a slap in the face after a poor winter!! Personally I think it's a good idea at anytime, but he has a point! 

I don’t agree that snow at the back end of March is like a slap in the face after a poor winter.  Unseasonably warm weather in March following a poor winter is more of a slap in the face to me!

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, Don said:

I don’t agree that snow at the back end of March is like a slap in the face after a poor winter.

The original quote was from a member who lives in canada who was complaining about how cold their winter has been and how accurate the Gfs (p) has been in that part of the world..basically just rubbing uk coldies noses in it.

Edited March 15, 2019 by Frosty.

[Earthshine]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The original quote was from a member who lives in canada who was complaining about how cold their winter has been and how accurate the Gfs (p) has been in that part of the world..basically just rubbing uk coldies noses in it.

I don't think anyone wants a cold Canadian winter, it's lethal.  Frostbite in literally minutes during cold spells.  I mean the cold we're used to in the UK is comparatively balmy for Canada.  

[Timmytour]

13 minutes ago, Evening Star said:

  I mean the cold we're used to in the UK is comparatively balmy for Canada.  

Who can be used to cold in the UK!!!! 

[knocker]

Likely precipitation impact areas until 0600 Sunday

 

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Who can be used to cold in the UK!!!! 

The only cold I'm used to is deep FI on the Gfs (p)!

Anyway, tomorrow brings snow to many parts of scotland and possibly the far north of england but then it becomes predominantly anticyclonic next week, a few bumps in the road along the way but overall much calmer than we've been used to recently.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Don said:

I don’t agree that snow at the back end of March is like a slap in the face after a poor winter.  Unseasonably warm weather in March following a poor winter is more of a slap in the face to me!

Yeh Don I agree, but I was just stating a lot of folk seemed to agree with what CM stated! It's like having a truly miserable summer with know high pressure, then it all sets up nicely during October. Personally I would say the only time it's gonna be a waste of time is mid April onwards

Edited March 15, 2019 by Mattwolves