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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

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A new thread as we enter into a new phase of weather, with the record breaking mildness now coming to a close, along with meteorological winter. 

A period of Atlantic driven weather is set to follow behind what has been an unusually dry, and an unusually mild spell, and with it the threat of some colder outbreaks. Rain and wind will be playing their part too, with several low pressure systems likely to move close to or across the British Isles during the coming days as the jet stream heads south again

jet-south.gif


Thread Moderation
The team will moderate this thread to keep it on topic and focused on the models. Please only post model related discussion.


Alternative Threads
If you want to chat about the winter in general, have a moan about it, or whatever else, there is a thread here for that:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91052-winter-weather-chat-moans-banter-and-ramps/

The Spring thread is also up and running:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91223-spring-2019-moans-ramps-chat-etc/

And for the Met Office outlooks, there's this thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
GFS
GFS FV3 (Para)
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met-Office
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Global Jet Stream
Stratosphere

Edited by Blessed Weather
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So the transition to a more seasonal air mass is complete on Saturday. After the last few days it will feel positively Baltic! 

CB93C28C-7195-4C6E-B2A7-EABE3532CE44.jpeg

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Another very warm one today, I think in a way I'm gonna miss it also, hopefully an indicator of what's to come further down the line. As the graphics below illustrate much more unsettled weather incoming, and at times  cold enough for the white stuff, Yeh you guessed it snow!! I've actually forgot what it looks like! So today it's a get ya deckchairs out, next week time to wax down your ski's and hit the slopes! 😎😱

gfs-0-210.png

gfs-1-210.png

06_81_preciptype.png

06_108_preciptype.png

06_117_preciptype.png

06_126_preciptype.png

06_198_preciptype.png

06_225_preciptype.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Mo ring all ,March can be a funny month,with every type of British weather possible accept warm barmy and hot nights ,with the winter we have witnessed don't be surprised to see some still real cold weather if we get the right set ups ,and if you want to believe the models hints are there in about 10 days time but before that we look like becoming more unsettled with something we haven't had much of this winter high winds and some precipitation which if we don't get much of will lead to another drought come the growing season,unsettled, colder with hill snow up north in the coming week and then hopefully some last horar winter weather which is always possible till the may flower comes out

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Looking uninspired amongst the models this morning, not much aside from cool muck on the horizon, the worst type of weather where it’s not cold enough for snow but unsettled with cold rain utterly depressing given the spell we’ve just had! 

Just to clarify: as spring begins I’m assuming this thread is no longer full of  cold hunters, can we now hunt for beautiful spring days like we’ve seen for the last week or are we still posting day 46 CFS charts? 😂 

 

Edited by Norrance
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29 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Looking uninspired amongst the models this morning, not much aside from cool muck on the horizon, the worst type of weather where it’s not cold enough for snow but unsettled with cold rain utterly depressing given the spell we’ve just had! 

Just to clarify: as spring begins I’m assuming this thread is no longer full of cold hunters, can we now hunt for beautiful spring days like we’ve seen for the last week or are we still posting day 46 CFS charts? 😂 

 

It's cold enough at times for snow for many up north and high ground,and I would imagine a few surprises thrown in.Can we hunt for spring? Of course we can,it's literally early March, but we can also hunt for cold as March can bring many different weather types. 😉

Edited by Norrance
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Afternoon all :)

Delighted to see the imminent end of this increasingly stagnant and unpleasant air mass.

As Nick F has said, it's a quick descent into a more active and seasonal flow dominated by Atlantic LP which track at time quite far south as the jet oscillates to the south of the UK. Looks very likely northern hills will see periods of snow with some possibilities for higher ground further south as LP track eastward across southern parts.

The 06Z OP makes a weak attempt to build heights to the NE after the trough disrupts but that's quickly blown away by the Atlantic.

Some options for renewed amplification occurring as we reach mid month but far too early to take seriously. It looks as though we have a 10-14 day period of unsettled and occasionally stormy conditions with a deal of much-needed rain (though nowhere near enough). After today's near double figure positive 850s, a rapid change to more seasonal values with long periods of negative 850s broken only by the warmer sectors of frontal systems.

Just an observation perhaps at last we may be getting some movement of the PV by mid month back over to Siberia but again a long way off.

 

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Chalk to cheese. Consistent shift in GEFS now.

00z                                                               06z

image.thumb.png.ab4a7879649c19ec96ed4944c603f609.pngimage.thumb.png.6c9081f38b56c792ac3577fff2e2e961.png

From warm and dry to cool/cold and wet - welcome Spring!

😁

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9 minutes ago, Purga said:

Chalk to cheese. Consistent shift in GEFS now.

00z                                                               06z

image.thumb.png.ab4a7879649c19ec96ed4944c603f609.pngimage.thumb.png.6c9081f38b56c792ac3577fff2e2e961.png

From warm and dry to cool/cold and wet - welcome Spring!

😁

Thanks for the ensembles purga but I needed 3d glasses to read em! 👍

graphe3_1000_282_99___.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Thanks for the ensembles purga but I needed 3d glasses to read em! 👍

graphe3_1000_282_99___.gif

👍 yours are easier on the eye - mine not so good after a night out on the beer! 😂

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The say that March is a month of may weathers, and the 06z run from the GFS seems to confirm this.

Saturday night into Sunday looks like it could be a little be breezy for the north and west of the UK.
Monday looks unsettled to say the least! And then we appear to be in an Atlantic driven flow, with frequent north westerly incursions.But by the end of the run, high pressure looks to slowly moving in from the Azores introducing a more settled conditions... But this is way into FI.

One thing is for certain, with the jet stream moving much further south, its gonna feel much colder than what it has done of late.
But, there does look to be lots of weather coming up, so plenty to keep an eye on. :oldlaugh:

(I don't know why this hasn't posted the final chart? :unsure2:)

GFSOPEU06_93_1.png

GFSOPEU06_135_1.png

Edited by Dangerous55019
Final chart won't post

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Westerlies taking control by the weekend it seems with that cold blob in the Atlantic helping fire up the westerlies now our block has subsided. Expect westerlies to be a little colder then usual given the source of the air. Perhaps some similarities to March 1995 which incidentally followed a very mild February.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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that damn azores high,just can’t get rid of it properly ,watch it vanish like magic when cold weather looking charts start verifying when it’s too late,how many times do we see that in the spring and summer months.

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This evening's gfs is not a million miles away form the rapid cyclogenesis on this morning's fax update vis Friday > Saturday so very wet and windy day on Saturday, particularly over Scotland as the low travels through. But there are further complications as a deepening wave forms on the front to the south west which tracks quickly north east to impact on Sunday

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.37ebf3640f7889960c82346cf872763f.gifPPVL89.thumb.gif.9b2724df1563ed51c837dda4bad48bd1.gifgfs_ptype_slp_eur3_18.thumb.png.7928b29b1787f3c4c8b9da9ab2826d2c.png

Over the first couple of days next week a fairly stagnant upper trough resides in the Eastern atlantic thus fairly quiet, if a tad unsettled, weather over the UK

gfs_z500_vort_natl_26.thumb.png.2c114403f4ba9ef40fe89c26e699ed5e.png

But now there are some major pattern changes upstream with a trough plunging down eastern North America with some arctic air that pumps up the jet, also courtesy of the Bermuda high.

gfs_z500a_nh_29.thumb.png.b7060ad482044a23bd80263366fdd16a.pnggfs_uv250_nh_29.thumb.png.ea9875558a49c4e6829eea4ab8bb43c2.png

All of this, with the subtropical high continuing to surge north in mid Atlantic, results in the UK being in a strong and unstable north westerly which portends some quite unpleasant weather with temps a tad below average. And with the Atlantic enviroment being quite conducive to cyclogenesis perhaps the odd surprise lurking in the woodshed

gfs_z500_vort_natl_36.thumb.png.e9006436978facfc404b9c1b5c6093b4.png

 

 

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6 hours ago, Weathizard said:

Looking uninspired amongst the models this morning, not much aside from cool muck on the horizon, the worst type of weather where it’s not cold enough for snow but unsettled with cold rain utterly depressing given the spell we’ve just had! 

Just to clarify: as spring begins I’m assuming this thread is no longer full of  cold hunters, can we now hunt for beautiful spring days like we’ve seen for the last week or are we still posting day 46 CFS charts? 😂 

 

End of April is usually my cut-off point for cold and snow but it's probably 1st of March this year because leaves are starting to come out down here! 

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Really very quiet in here but looking at the latest models it won't be quiet outside for much longer with plenty of wind / rain and much lower temps compared with the sunny and very warm conditions we have been enjoying..although I'm devastated by how abysmal this winter has been, I will miss this extremely early bonus taste of summer!

Edited by Frosty.
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You can always rely on the weather to even things up .

After an extraordinary spell of warmth for both the UK and here in sw France it looks like all change .

I don’t mind early spring warmth as long as it doesn’t last too long , it can cause havoc for nature if you then get a taste of winter so I’m quite happy to see this change coming .

Nothing shouts much below average at the moment but early days yet with the return of Euro troughing .

 

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44 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Starting to like some of the 12z precipitation charts, with numerous cold shots incoming. I'm feeling the need for a boom, but I'm gonna refrain!! 

 

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-1-240.png

12_126_preciptype.png

12_189_preciptype.png

12_198_preciptype.png

12_207_preciptype.png

ooh-matron-with-text.gif

BOOOOOM!!!!  Oh dam I think I have just blown my heater, no wonder it's been so warm time to wrap up now

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7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Sigh! more snow south of the M4, they've had enough this winter!

 

ECM1-168.GIF?27-0

Don't worry, it looks like cold rain

image.thumb.png.ada51aa9aee052a08c83d4e254fcf37a.png

😡😂

Anyway the Canucks are getting another freezing blast which is heading off Newfoundland to wind up the Atlantic again....

image.thumb.png.b5412c94ebf939c8e01b8abd6bf7712e.png

Edited by Purga

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Evening peeps 😊

Hope you all had a great day just got back to London Euston still feels warm out here. Big changes on the way though, will have to dig out the coat again. Anyway will make this short got to get the underground now hope you all have a great evening. 

Take care stay safe

😊😊

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Was just gonna point out regarding the above post, are the uppers cold enough for snow to the south, ecm has that low pressure just to the south, but currently indicating - 4 uppers, but lower temps to the north, one to watch for sure regarding the track, the situation is likely to change quite a lot! 

ECM1-168.gif

ECM0-168.gifedit... Some really cold uppers to our north, could be an interesting next week! 

168_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Another potential snow event for m4 corridor (north or south) on the EC, won’t verify exactly as shown but highlighting a risk as we head beyond this balmy spell. 

0C846B3D-932E-4838-AD2E-734F4FF86870.thumb.png.fcc7a673c972a95e6466825df8eeb9de.png

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