Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?

Paul

Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Not really one for spring ramping so early, but some really usable weather over the next few days coming up so enjoy it if you can folks, I would have thought 18-20c possible in the desired locations,  not often we witness such warmth so early, and hopefully this will be a precursor to a marvellous summer! Temps back down to bog standard March affairs as we progress, but if there is know snow in the offing, then bring on an early summer I say! 👍😎

ECU0-48.gif

ECU0-72.gif

ECU0-120.gif

ECU0-144.gif

ECU0-168.gif

ECU0-192.gif

ECU0-216.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

What a contrast into March, a case of deckchairs at the ready quickly followed by thermals on standby! Typical March affair, at least the month of March may begin to play ball! 😎😱

gfs-1-276.png

gfs-1-300.png

Just my opinion, but if we have a choice between cold rain and spring warmth moving into March, I’ll be rooting for the latter all day long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, danm said:

Just my opinion, but if we have a choice between cold rain and spring warmth moving into March, I’ll be rooting for the latter all day long.

Yep Dan, as my above post states,if there is know snow likely then I will be glad to see the back of this winter. Cold rain does nothing at all for me,I despise it. 

Edited by Mattwolves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the GEFS 12z postage stamps in the mid and especially longer range, there is certainly the potential for occasional snow..as there also is on the operational..especially further north...I think march could bring at least some wintry weather at times within a generally unsettled pattern that takes over from next weekend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z postage stamps in the mid and especially longer range, there is certainly the potential for occasional snow..as there also is on the operational..especially further north...I think march could bring at least some wintry weather at times within a generally unsettled pattern that takes over from next weekend.

Agreed frosty, looks like some rather cool/cold and showery conditions at times, and yes those up north and at height could most definitely See some of the white stuff. Those down south.... Mehhhhh 

12_240_mslp500.png

birmingham_ecmsd850.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm 240 hour chart tonight is up there with one of the worst all winter....and technically we are into spring by day 10! Raging PV and massive +ve AO. Polar temps are way below where they should be too after the rebound from the ssw. Could take a bit longer to wind down this year?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At last it would now appear we're about to see a long overdue end to this omega block from next weekend. While I appreciate many are enjoying the early Spring warmth brought about in part by this block I won't disguise the fact I'm eagerly looking forward to a resurgent Atlantic. Whether this upcoming unsettled spell proves to be protracted in nature remains to be seen but any change from what we've had to endure for so long now can only be a good thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few more warm settled days ahead before the high retreats south allowing low pressure to take over as we move into early March bringing stronger winds and some rain

ukm2.2019030212_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.573ae7bfc3b5f8ddbca301a39735907b.pngukm2.2019030312_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.0b7a25f69981d983a28e3696acd58de7.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Focussing on the GEFS 12z mean, it certainly brings a marked change to a changeable / unsettled atlantic weather pattern from next weekend onwards. Temperatures by then  vary around average for central and southern uk with frequent fluctuations between a little colder and milder. Northern uk (scotland / n.ireland) similar but with more chance of it being cold enough at times for snow, but the snow more likely on higher ground with the scottish mountain skiing resorts seeing some welcome fresh snow at times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope the stuff about ‘shattered’ vortexes not reforming after a strong early to mid-season warming can be put to bed after this winter. Far too simplistic a viewpoint.

Most of us were suckered in to a degree but, looking back, with little follow on activity in the strat, in fact a nosedive cooling, plus a downwelling W-QBO, I suppose it ought to come as little surprise really.

Can’t rule out a late cold blast but I say that only on the basis that it is still (albeit late) February and there is still time. As opposed to anything that is in the charts that gives me any indication or optimism whatsoever. 

Hey ho, we had a very good snow event for my location in late January  (that’s 2 winters in a row now, very rare) so I suppose I would’ve taken that if offered at the outset.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Evening! Really interested in the Diurnal temperatures for tomorrow, some places will get a 24c temperature swing in just 12 hours, Perhaps pushing a record for the Uk ??? Would not believe we could talk of something interesting to talk of with Boring Synoptics,,,:oldrofl: After that the weather becomes Live!y:gathering:

tenbury.png

tenburyx.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Remember when march was this lively the latest storm I`ve seen in march with severe gales.

Rrea00119860325.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Totally agree.  I have predicted April will be the month due to PV being displaced due to warmer temperatures in our latitude.  Cut the lawns today without a sweater on.  Seemed so odd.  True good to be true.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean following a very mild (by day) and settled first part, but with overnight frosts which could be sharp in places and for some, thick fog..later in the run it becomes progressively more unsettled from the west and for the first time in a while..the 850's show some light blue shading..and there are even some tight isobars..wonder where our tight isobar is??:oldsad:!!:shok:😁

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big 3 00z up to 144

UKMO

UW24-21_zpspdnokv6t.gifUW48-21_zps3tuxoblw.gifUW72-21_zpsvwzjgfkn.gifUW96-21_zpsjbh8mfsk.gifUW120-21_zpstdnnctdp.gifUW144-21_zps6syfdbcy.gif

GFS

gfs-0-24_zpscxoykdjy.pnggfs-0-48_zps6nuvofza.pnggfs-0-72_zpsv3u16e3h.pnggfs-0-96_zpsvucvcbrq.pnggfs-0-120_zpszfsytjwj.pnggfs-0-144_zpstsei2cso.png

ECM

ECM1-24_zpsaahc2knu.gifECM1-48_zpsp9bylzsp.gifECM1-72_zpsylvlfb1u.gifECM1-96_zpshsrtwb1s.gifECM1-120_zpsjab1f9xu.gifECM1-144_zpselt5vj9s.gif

Edited by Nizzer
Missing links

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still the heights to the south or sw of the uk on the models, even in far fl, the reason the winter ended up dire and mild, until they dissappear, then the extremely cold air bottling up in the Arctic will never be able to sink South. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, the main variable was where the Pacific wedge of heights would drift after D6? At one point it looked like it would cross the Arctic field, hence a small trend for the AO to lower. Current a very positive AO:

  1523363618_ao.sprd2(1).thumb.gif.70c84fe721172076f9d87d175869008f.gif

So any hope of an Arctic outbreak diminishes. So with the Atlantic moving in this week, PM is the source for any modified cold. A shame as lots of cold air to tap into, but sums this Winter up.

Anyway, the US will benefit from that floating Pac Wedge. It moves to Alaska/NW Canada before being consumed and will direct several cold bursts into the US (the usual suspect).

Once the wedge sinks, this opens up the trop PV to stretch its legs further afield (post D12/13 acc GFS) driving a very mobile NH pattern. No current sign of any tropical forcing as we reach D16, so zonal, cool, wet at times, but maybe trending to more wave breaking, so post D15 possibly more frequent drier zones (more so the south).

Closer to home, another three days of extremely mild weather, before the Atlantic spoils the party!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Much cooler air rolling in from the N/W into Wk2, With transient Northerly's as fronts pass. Cold enough for snow over high ground & will hopefully give the Scottish Highlands a snow boost as it's been a poor season and I'm up there doing the NC500 mid March..

1173676813_viewimage(1).thumb.png.2eb2a49055dc25153e5d52243bacb857.png307976232_viewimage(2).thumb.png.ed3ddf63a0d47e92b5394d47fb6f9d6f.png2008257405_viewimage(3).thumb.png.d180edb5a9ba0ab803b0c6e5ba9dbdf3.png 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fantastic input data alert!

image.thumb.png.9ff17e32c5935810aab99ecd0e7e5daf.png

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Fantastic input data alert!

image.thumb.png.9ff17e32c5935810aab99ecd0e7e5daf.png

 

🤔🤔🤔??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, shaky said:

🤔🤔🤔??

Nearly a 10c difference in the starting conditions between ECM and GFS ops.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nearly a 10c difference in the starting conditions between ECM and GFS ops.

ECM either has failed miserably or that is an erroneous input. I am just south of London and it was 9.7c at midnight in my area according to the Met. So clearly the GFS on the mark there!

Currently, 15.8c so both as usual under-estimating highs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM either has failed miserably or that is an erroneous input. I am just south of London and it was 9.7c at midnight in my area according to the Met. So clearly the GFS on the mark there!

Currently, 15.8c so both as usual under-estimating highs.

And yet the nearest observation site to London according to the Met Office site got down to 1 at midnight then lower
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/gcpvj0v07

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...