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Roger J Smith

March 2019 C.E.T. and E.W.P. forecast contests

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March CET averages and extremes

15.1 ... warmest March daily mean (30th, 2017)

14.7 ... previous warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)

 9.2 ... Warmest March (1957)
 9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938)

 8.7 ... 3rd warmest March (2017)
 8.4 ... 4th warmest March (1997)
 8.3 ... 5th warmest March (1948,1990, 2012)
 8.2 ... 8th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961)

 

 7.9 ...1981, 1991, 1998

 7.7 ...1994

 7.6 ... 2000, 2002, 2014 

 7.5 ... 1989, 1992, 2003 

 7.4 ... 1999 

 7.2 ... 2005, 2007 

 7.0 ... 2009  

 6.8 ... mean of 1989-2018

 6.7 ... 1993, 2011 and mean of 1991-2018

 6.6 ... mean of 1981-2010 

 6.5 ... 2004 and mean of 21st century (2001-2018)

 6.4 ... 1983, 1988, 2015

 6.3 ... mean of 1971-2000

 6.1 ... 1982, 2008, 2010

 5.8 ... mean of 20th century (1901-2000) and 2016
 5.7 ... mean of 1961-1990

 5.6 ... 1995
 5.34... mean of all 360 years (1659-2018)
 5.2 ... mean of 19th century (1801-1900) and 2001
 5.0 ... mean of 18th century (1701-1800)

 

 4.9 ... 1986, 2006, 2018
 4.7 ... 1984, 1985

 4.6 ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700)
 4.5 ... 1996

 4.1 ... 1987 

 2.8 ... 1962 ... Coldest March of 20th century

 2.7 ... 2013 ... Coldest March since 1892 ... tied with 1892 and 1784 joint 12th coldest March

 1.8 ... 3rd coldest March (1748)
 1.2 ... 2nd coldest March (1785)
 1.0 ... Coldest March (1674)

 1.0 ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st)

 0.6 ... Mean of the five days 22nd-26th March 2013

-3.8 ... daily record set last year on 1st (2018)

-3.9 ... Coldest March daily mean in last 53 yrs (3rd, 1965)

-6.5 ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845)

Enter your forecast by the end of Thursday, 28 Feb to avoid time penalties, or by the end of Sunday 3rd of March with time penalties but before the absolute deadline.

____________________________________________________________

 

Optional March 2018 EWP forecast contest 

Predict the March England and Wales average rainfall in mm, verification this contest year is from Hadley EWP and all data in the following table are from the Hadley records which run from 1766 to 2018. 

The deadline information is the same as above, 0.2 points (of a possible 10.0) are deducted for each day late.

 

177.5 __ maximum (1947)

160.4 __ maximum since 1981 (was 1981)

 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010

 64.3 __ mean 1989-2018

 22.3 __ minimum since 1981 (2011) (20th lowest 1766-2017)

 05.6 __ minimum (1781)  

________________________________________________________

Last year recorded 115.1 mm in March, the wettest since 1981. 

You can enter both contests in the same post, and good luck. 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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I can't remember if I made a guess this early before.  Very mild Februarys don't favour a cold March to follow. In recent times, only in 1995 was followed by a March that wasn't mild overall.

+6.0 February and the following March since 1900

2017  6.1 8.7

2014  6.2 7.6

2011  6.4  6.7

2002  7.0 7.6

2000  6.3 7.6

1998  7.3 7.9

1997  6.7 8.4

1995  6.5 5.6

1990  7.3 8.3

1961  6.9 8.2

1945  7.1 7.9

1943 6.1  6.5

1926 6.8  6.3

1920 6.0  7.2

1918 6.5  5.7

1914 6.8 6.1

1903 7.1 7.1

-------------------------------------

I'm going for March 7.8C and 60mm

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12C  :oldsad:  Last sub 2C March in 1883.  Last sub 3C and last sub 4C March in 2013.  Last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2018.

200mm of Atlantic garbage.

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7.5°C and 53mm

A month dominated by south/south westerlies but also some periods where low pressure from the West makes inroads

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6.3C and 70 mm please

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7.8c and 55mm.  Stormy cold first few days then dry mild continental S/SE’lies to dominate for  3 weeks(  ‘drought’ ) then a cool wet ending

 

BFTP

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Never knew 1995 was only an average March, remember wintry weather hanging around until 20th, i suppose though it was mostly further North after the initial dumping in Early March.

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7.6C, 1C above the 1981-2010 average. 

Given that we have a static wave in the Pacific and and above average zonal winds i suspect that March will tend to see mid to high lattitude blocking (suggesting a dry month) but mainly over or to the east of us. I suspect we will retrogress to a cooler and perhaps wetter pattern late in the month but by then i think the CET will be high enough to render that a non-issue. 

 

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On ‎21‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 10:46, feb1991blizzard said:

Never knew 1995 was only an average March, remember wintry weather hanging around until 20th, i suppose though it was mostly further North after the initial dumping in Early March.

5.6c is below average.

March this year is going to come in like a lamb and go out like a lion.

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2 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

5.6c is below average.

March this year is going to come in like a lamb and go out like a lion.

Its more or less average.

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its more or less average.

The CET doesn`t show a lot as march 1995 was the best cold zonality that month has given for snow as far as I`ve been alive.

Snowcover for 14 days here that month.

 

Edited by Snowyowl9

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That March 1995 value is just into the coldest third of the most recent 38 and near the long-term normal of all 360 years but about a degree below more recent 30-year normal values. 

Meanwhile, here's my numbers for March, not expecting anything very far from average in general: 7.0 and 70.5 mm. 

Warmest February 1779 was 7.9, followed by a 7.9 March, which back in those days was probably thought to be quite warm although they had just had some very warm days in March of 1777. 

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 I think March is going to be below average there for I am going for 5.6C and 95MM. thank you  The mild spell has to come to an end sometimes and I think March will be the month. ☺️

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