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Nick F

Winter 2018/19: Sudden Stratospheric Warming - But Why No Beast From The East?

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We saw another Sudden Stratospheric Warming to begin the New Year, but why, unlike following the February SSW last year, has there been not Beast From The East?
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'For February there is strong support for plenty of high latitude blocking and easterly winds blowing more frequently than normal, as has historically been very common in winters with ENSO in a relatively weak El Nino state, and both the analogues and the major long range forecast models are in strong agreement on this. In particular, any sudden stratospheric warming event in January or February, especially later in the season, would be particularly likely to give us a significant cold spell given that the probabilities are already weighted towards high latitude blocking for February.'

This was the Winter forecast by Ian Simpson on the homepage.......  :(

 

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