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Yorkshire and E England regional thread 30 Jan 2019 onwards


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Yesterday morning was rather special on the North York Moors. We were the first ones out running on the old iron stone railway line at Rosedale Abbey around 9am. Clear blue skies, -2c and around

Lovely up on the Wolds this lunchtime

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Well the showers have really intensified in Wakefield in the last 2 hours or so, quite squally too. Looking at the radar, there’s plenty more coming from the north west this evening. A filthy horrible night. 

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4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Fairly dry tonight by the looks of things Thursday is the real worry and needs to be kept an eye on.

Indeed it does. WRF-NMM and ICON bring the rain this far north, but ARPEGE keeps it south. GFS somewhere in between but beefs it up more later on Thursday afternoon - it looks quite different to the other three models mentioned.

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If I lived in Hull and flooded in 2007 I would be moving everything to safety . I'm sorry so much water has been dumped on you guys .. here in N.I. we are getting off light . I pray you make it to through without needing Noah . b.c.

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34 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

Almost double yours isn't it, all down to last Thursday I think!

Yeah we got away with it Last Thursday afternoon we had a 4-5 hour slot of just patchy rain. 

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Well it's now political. Well if we build on flood plains you got to build the houses properly with flooding in mind. It's okay building flood defences but it moves the problem elsewhere and it's clear what they have put in didn't even take the 2007 levels into account which is mind boggling incompetence

Long term with the population growing to unsustainable levels.we'll be forced to build more and more on flood plains so then we need to build houses above the expected flood levels.

Earlier on it seems the rain will push through here pretty quickly.

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Not as much as some but 107.8 mm so far; the previous highest in 2016 was 73.0; it is the fourth month this year with over 100 mm. I have records that go back to 1942/3 and that has never happened before.

 

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It seems my last reply got lost.

We've recorded a 100 mm plus 22 times since 1955 in November. Over the years this is the 2nd time we will have recorded hundred millimetre recurring 6 times and that's from 1955 but it's quite common to record several months having a hundred or more millimetres. There is a chance that we will record half of the year's normal rainfall in the autumn alone which is amazing. There's also a small chance that we will record the wettest year ever which is 1217 mm recorded in 2012.

It's is still uncertain how much rain the region will get on Thursday into Friday either way it looks pretty certain we will make a new record for the wettest autumn ever in Sheffield.

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3 hours ago, The PIT said:

It seems my last reply got lost.

We've recorded a 100 mm plus 22 times since 1955 in November. Over the years this is the 2nd time we will have recorded hundred millimetre recurring 6 times and that's from 1955 but it's quite common to record several months having a hundred or more millimetres. There is a chance that we will record half of the year's normal rainfall in the autumn alone which is amazing. There's also a small chance that we will record the wettest year ever which is 1217 mm recorded in 2012.

It's is still uncertain how much rain the region will get on Thursday into Friday either way it looks pretty certain we will make a new record for the wettest autumn ever in Sheffield.

Just shows the difference altitude and not many miles can make

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Looks like there's the potential for several hours of heavy rain for the region tomorrow afternoon/evening. River levels have fallen substantially but the ground is still very wet, hopefully it won't be too intense.

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Still an unclear picture GFS shows more prolonged rain the local forecast at one time was with that idea and now has switched back again. Maybe a case of radar watching as the day goes on.

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Well the GFS is now for heavy rainfall later on we are already catching the showers so convincing to see how bad it gets or whether we will be lucky not. Fingers crossed for those in the flood areas that they will fall lucky this time.

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Rain turning moderates here as the banner showers and the main front begin to merge. Not looking good for South Yorkshire as the GFS seems to have been on the wall with rain turning heavier as it moves north.

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12 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Rain turning moderates here as the banner showers and the main front begin to merge. Not looking good for South Yorkshire as the GFS seems to have been on the wall with rain turning heavier as it moves north.

Thankfully it does look like it should move through quickly. And it looks as though it won’t be anywhere near as heavy or prolonged as it was on Thursday last week. 

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I'd be more than a little concerned for the flood prone areas right now. As @The PIT mentioned the showers north of the main band are prolonged and merging, adding to the timeframe of precipitation expected. Precipitation rates are quite high as well. It will move through quicker than last Thursday but at the same time it'll take much less precipitation to cause similarly severe impacts. The higher totals mooted by the Met of 35-45mm look closer to the mark, looking at the radar ?

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Thankfully according to the bbc this afternoon’s rain isn’t expected to cause any further flooding so at least that’s a small crumb of comfort for the residents of fish lake. And it also showed areas where the flood water had dropped by 2-3ft in some areas. 

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