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Yorkshire and E England regional thread 30 Jan 2019 onwards


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7 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

As people have said last march we had alot of snow! so I suppose saying winter is over now is abit premature! we just have to admit our winters are later and later feb/march ? anything before that is a bonus 

Yep, that is why I think people in the mad thread are being silly. For such intelligent people they really do show a serious lack of common sense at times.

We are at the end of the weakest solar cycle in 200 years, currently in the deepest solar minimum for 200 years and we won't have climbed up into the next solar maximum for another 4 or 5 years (and even that is forecast to be relatively week too). History shows that winters tend to last later into spring at periods of very low solar minimums. I would therefore suggest we could still have 8-12 weeks of potential winter weather to go. On top of that we have the AMO trending towards negative territory. I would not write winter off yet. My wife grows our own vegetables and will tell you that she lost crops due to snow and ice appearing in April at the time of the last minimum.

The good news for summer is that solar minimums can produce long hot dry summers! ?

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The Northern end of that band will not push much further Eastwards now but the Southern end will continue to swing up from the SW in a North Easterly direction meaning that the band will eventually be

Crookes, Sheffield  this morning 

Posted Images

Well after getting lucky yesterday morning, not one shower has hit here this morning with areas a few miles to east seeing some beefy showers.

Temp: 0.7c

Dew: -1.0c

855380240_Preview_NorthView_01_20190202_102215_69488562.thumb.jpg.2cc47ed6580ae309c41c29c76f7597d9.jpgPreview_Camera1_01_20190202_102225_69498640.thumb.jpg.234c2d52e2c705a3e1efa5a3fb114d85.jpg

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Nice little walk in the peak district. Always entertaining as Derbyshire council don't grit early on and seem to depend on the sun to melt things. A light covering at Lathekil Dale and ironically easier to clamber across the rocks than normal. Hazards this morning ice, pot holes, and low sun. Better going back as much of the ice had melted but still there in the shade. Pot holes still there of course and a few weeks time they'll be a lot of potential wheel breakers once more. 

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2 hours ago, reef said:

They should be mostly snow but won't lay once it warms up unless they're heavy enough.

Reef, we actually got about 3 inches overnight and I have been sledging this morning! Complete surprise and very welcome. The band that went through an hour or so ago just clipped us to the east but I reckon you had a good bit: I hope you did. Another approaching now with a few more behind....

The battle today  is between the amount of cloud v the amount of sun we get plus how much comes out of each shower to top up what's on the ground. We'' know the winner by 16:00.

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Just been over to Scunthorpe, virtually no snow there at all and yet a few miles to the east on the back roads via South Ferriby down to Elsham there was an inch or so laying on the fields.

It is all melting pretty fast now as temps are up to +4c, clear blue sky and a warm sun. Still, it counts as a snow day for me as we had a good few hours of laying snow and I got to engage 4WD on the Land Rover (albeit for just a mile) ?

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1 hour ago, Muffelchen said:

Reef, we actually got about 3 inches overnight and I have been sledging this morning! Complete surprise and very welcome. The band that went through an hour or so ago just clipped us to the east but I reckon you had a good bit: I hope you did. Another approaching now with a few more behind....

The battle today  is between the amount of cloud v the amount of sun we get plus how much comes out of each shower to top up what's on the ground. We'' know the winner by 16:00.

We didnt have anywhere near that, just a light covering that wasn't measurable. Its all gone now as we've only had one light shower since 6.30am, that band totally missed us.

Our 6 year stint without more than 0.5cm continues...

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3 hours ago, OldLandRover said:

Yep, that is why I think people in the mad thread are being silly. For such intelligent people they really do show a serious lack of common sense at times.

We are at the end of the weakest solar cycle in 200 years, currently in the deepest solar minimum for 200 years and we won't have climbed up into the next solar maximum for another 4 or 5 years (and even that is forecast to be relatively week too). History shows that winters tend to last later into spring at periods of very low solar minimums. I would therefore suggest we could still have 8-12 weeks of potential winter weather to go. On top of that we have the AMO trending towards negative territory. I would not write winter off yet. My wife grows our own vegetables and will tell you that she lost crops due to snow and ice appearing in April at the time of the last minimum.

The good news for summer is that solar minimums can produce long hot dry summers! ?

Depends on what you look out for really... if its a sustained cold spell with lying snow then that starts becoming very difficult once we enter March, even today we had a heavy snow shower in Hull but the surface was too warm for it to lay and accumulate. We got a bit sticking overnight but that melted quickly.

Unless we get a beast from the east then persistent deep lying snow is a big ask. I don't see any link between the AMO and UK winter climate and you haven't shown anything so your post lacks context. Solar cycles do increase the risk of severely cold winters but there are many other factors too. There have been plenty of warm springs that have occurred during solar minimums and the early 1910s had a longer period without sunspots.

Yet the winters during that time were very mild.

12 weeks would ealso take us into May? I think the vast majority of people would rather see something spring like by mid march. Overnight snow followed by melting slush during the day doesn't cut it for me.

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5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Depends on what you look out for really... if its a sustained cold spell with lying snow then that starts becoming very difficult once we enter March, even today we had a heavy snow shower in Hull but the surface was too warm for it to lay and accumulate. We got a bit sticking overnight but that melted quickly.

Unless we get a beast from the east then persistent deep lying snow is a big ask. I don't see any link between the AMO and UK winter climate and you haven't shown anything so your post lacks context. Solar cycles do increase the risk of severely cold winters but there are many other factors too. There have been plenty of warm springs that have occurred during solar minimums and the early 1910s had a longer period without sunspots.

Yet the winters during that time were very mild.

12 weeks would ealso take us into May? I think the vast majority of people would rather see something spring like by mid march. Overnight snow followed by melting slush during the day doesn't cut it for me.

Hull or any city for that matter is going to struggle simply due to UHI effect. We are only a few miles south of you but in a very rural location. It can be 5 degrees colder here than Hull (where our eldest lives) and snow/ice stays on the ground far longer. In fact in 2010 we had -18c on our home weather station while Hull was reporting just -10c, just shows how extreme the UHI effect can be in a cold winter.

Only last week we had snow on the ground for several days. In March 2013 we had snow on the ground from 23rd to 28th. Agreed, it may not be that common that snow arrives in late March/April but it can happen and my point was that the solar minimum boosts the chances of it happening albeit by a small margin.

I'm not sure many people want prolonged deep laying snow anyway. We like it on the odd day, especially if at weekends so the kids can sledge and build snowmen but my wife and I need to get to work so prolonged periods of laying snow cause us problems, especially as I'm self employed and only get paid when I am working.

Because we grow our own vegetables we tend to pay closer attention to temps than many, especially in April/May when we may be planting seedlings out and we know from experience that snow/ice/frosts are more common in April than many would imagine. All it takes is one bad frost to wipe out a crop or two. It doesn't need weeks of sub zero temps.

The ref to AMO was that I remember reading many years ago that in a negative phase of the AMO the cooler SST's result in less wet weather for the UK and there is less strength in the Atlantic systems as they move to the UK. In winter this can result in slightly cooler/drier spells, in summer warmer/drier summers. Is this not correct?

 

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12 minutes ago, OldLandRover said:

Hull or any city for that matter is going to struggle simply due to UHI effect. We are only a few miles south of you but in a very rural location. It can be 5 degrees colder here than Hull (where our eldest lives) and snow/ice stays on the ground far longer. In fact in 2010 we had -18c on our home weather station while Hull was reporting just -10c, just shows how extreme the UHI effect can be in a cold winter.

True, I can imagine if I lived nearby on the Wolds I would get miles more! Just most of us live in the cities sadly...

Only last week we had snow on the ground for several days. In March 2013 we had snow on the ground from 23rd to 28th. Agreed, it may not be that common that snow arrives in late March/April but it can happen and my point was that the solar minimum boosts the chances of it happening albeit by a small margin.

Yeah March 2006 was also rather interesting here but it becomes harder to get a good cold spell due to the strength of the sun. In December for example all you need is a slack setup and some rather cold uppers to get really cold surface temperatures. Last thursday was an exception due to freezing fog.

I'm not sure many people want prolonged deep laying snow anyway. We like it on the odd day, especially if at weekends so the kids can sledge and build snowmen but my wife and I need to get to work so prolonged periods of laying snow cause us problems, especially as I'm self employed and only get paid when I am working.

Fair enough, I would be curious to experience it one day, though a winter like 1947 would do a huge amount of damage. I would love a really cold and snowy December though, sadly I was away for most of December 2010!

Because we grow our own vegetables we tend to pay closer attention to temps than many, especially in April/May when we may be planting seedlings out and we know from experience that snow/ice/frosts are more common in April than many would imagine. All it takes is one bad frost to wipe out a crop or two. It doesn't need weeks of sub zero temps.

Snow is actually more common in March then December, I suspect cooler SSTs also play a helping hand but as soon as the sun pops out it is gone, lol.

In winter this can result in slightly cooler/drier spells, in summer warmer/drier summers. Is this not correct?

I think the structure of the North Atlantic SSTs is more important. The AMO is just an expression of the North Atlantic SST anomalies compared to global SSTs (there are other methods of calculating it though). I look for warm SSTs around the Greenland / NE Canada area for cold winters here.

 

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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38 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

 

Quicksilver1989, shame you missed December 2010 ?

That winter was epic, started snowing here shortly after Halloween I seem to recall, lawn went white and remained under snow until march following year. Had upto 24" depth of snow on lawn in mid December and a total winter snowfall of 50" here. Oddly though, it never snowed once during xmas week! I think xmas must be jinxed.

Here is a pic to show you what you missed that December, 20" of snow over whole garden. Most of this was still there in January which is when I think our lowest temp ever recorded was -20c at 4am one morning. We added beer cans to show the depth to our friends in the south who didn't believe we'd had that much snow ?

20101203_snow (7)a.jpg

edit: we had to dig the trench to get to our log store at the bottom of the garden.

Edited by OldLandRover
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temp dropping quite rapidly here, down to +2.7c now (was 4.7c only an hour ago). It has also gone grey and cloudy here.

Those rain bands showing on the radar may start to turn to snow again once it goes dark.

My wife informs me that the TV were forecasting snow for us between 6pm and 9pm? 

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I look for warm SSTs around the Greenland / NE Canada area for cold winters here.

A bit like this? :-)

Can't find a later chart than 31st Dec 2018 but this one shows exactly what you mentioned, warm SST NE Canada/south of Greenland, below average across the mid north Atlantic. I think we need the Atlantic to cool a bit more so that it takes the energy out of the systems coming our way, I may be wrong but pretty sure with less energy they have less chance of pushing through across the UK, giving us more chance of remaining under an easterly on the east coast of UK and hence colder/higher snow risk?? I know it is a lot more complicated than that but every little helps eh? :-)

 

SST_atlantic_20181231.jpg

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Well it appears that the snow shield has been turned up to full power here in West Yorkshire,only a couple of short lived dustings (admittedly prob a bit more if you're at altitude)since the beginning of winter and it's only this past week that we've seen a decent frost !!?...pretty disappointing winter really..let's see if March can deliver something before thoughts turn to summer!!..for now I'll just have to make do with watching the snow 'darn  saarf' on the news!?

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Away in North Yorkshire this week for a bit of peace on the North Yorks Moors.  Have seen snow showers on and off all day from arriving at around 10am this morning. Intended to visit Rievaulx Abbey and having very carefuly manged to get down the pretty steep Rievaulx Bank found that the Abbey was closed due to ‘severe and unsafe conditions’.  

The first pic was the view down Rievaulx Bank....and was our route back out of the village.  It was a good test of the All Wheel Drive of my Volvo XC60, which proved it as more that up to the job ?

 

640CE33A-1F67-4D61-B209-C8248B731C69.jpeg

Couple of snow pics in Hutton le Hole where we are staying.

4FBF8F22-B61B-4531-AD6D-273B640529DC.jpeg

31C29FFD-65C6-4B6E-B723-FD33A2C934E9.jpeg

D4F8CF06-9645-446E-ABE7-80172AB3C36C.jpeg

Forecast for tonight is for temps to get down to -7!

Edited by SouthYorks
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2 hours ago, OldLandRover said:

Quicksilver1989, shame you missed December 2010 ?

That winter was epic, started snowing here shortly after Halloween I seem to recall, lawn went white and remained under snow until march following year. Had upto 24" depth of snow on lawn in mid December and a total winter snowfall of 50" here. Oddly though, it never snowed once during xmas week! I think xmas must be jinxed.

Here is a pic to show you what you missed that December, 20" of snow over whole garden. Most of this was still there in January which is when I think our lowest temp ever recorded was -20c at 4am one morning. We added beer cans to show the depth to our friends in the south who didn't believe we'd had that much snow ?

20101203_snow (7)a.jpg

edit: we had to dig the trench to get to our log store at the bottom of the garden.

Gutted I missed this event, even at my parents house they managed to get about 30-35cm. They said they hadn't seen anything like it since the late 70s / early 80s. It will happen again one day ?

1 hour ago, OldLandRover said:

A bit like this? ?

Can't find a later chart than 31st Dec 2018 but this one shows exactly what you mentioned, warm SST NE Canada/south of Greenland, below average across the mid north Atlantic. I think we need the Atlantic to cool a bit more so that it takes the energy out of the systems coming our way, I may be wrong but pretty sure with less energy they have less chance of pushing through across the UK, giving us more chance of remaining under an easterly on the east coast of UK and hence colder/higher snow risk?? I know it is a lot more complicated than that but every little helps eh? ?

 

SST_atlantic_20181231.jpg

That is getting along the right lines so we did see a bit of a blocked pattern for the first half of January although the cold was mainly sent down to the alps:

image.thumb.png.6096e329322f9a2de5a42e2fcc37200a.png Dec 2018

Compare that to December 2010 and the wamrth in the relevant areas was much more pronounced:

image.thumb.png.90d7ef925b4e14438366dffb90341078.png Dec 2010

That month saw a southerly tracking jet which allowed high pressure to build around Greenland more easily.

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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40 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

Away in North Yorkshire this week for a bit of peace on the North Yorks Moors.  Have seen snow showers on and off all day from arriving at around 10am this morning. Intended to visit Rievaulx Abbey and having very carefuly manged to get down the pretty steep Rievaulx Bank found that the Abbey was closed due to ‘severe and unsafe conditions’.  

The first pic was the view down Rievaulx Bank....and was our route back out of the village.  It was a good test of the All Wheel Drive of my Volvo XC60, which proved it as more that up to the job ?

 

640CE33A-1F67-4D61-B209-C8248B731C69.jpeg

Couple of snow pics in Hutton le Hole where we are staying.

4FBF8F22-B61B-4531-AD6D-273B640529DC.jpeg

31C29FFD-65C6-4B6E-B723-FD33A2C934E9.jpeg

D4F8CF06-9645-446E-ABE7-80172AB3C36C.jpeg

Forecast for tonight is for temps to get down to -7!

Could be lower than -7c tonight mate, Hutton le Hole is a very good frost hollow, alot like Rievaulx Abbey.

We were tempted to go to Lion Inn, Blakey for tea tonight but decided to get an early night and get into Dalby Forest first thing where it will be snow Narnia in the forest.

You always seem to time it right for snow in this part of the world. Although make the most of it as the thaw is coming ?

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21 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Could be lower than -7c tonight mate, Hutton le Hole is a very good frost hollow, alot like Rievaulx Abbey.

We were tempted to go to Lion Inn, Blakey for tea tonight but decided to get an early night and get into Dalby Forest first thing where it will be snow Narnia in the forest.

You always seem to time it right for snow in this part of the world. Although make the most of it as the thaw is coming ?

Yep, you could right re temps.  We’ve been coming to Hutton for the last 25 years and stayed in the same cottage for the last 10 years always in Feb.  The cottage is located in the lee of the hill on rhe right as you enter the village so is in shade most of the day at this time of year, so we’ve had some very low overnight temps over the years.  I think -8 at 10am was the lowest I remember.

The road through the village up to The Lion is clear, although you never quite know once you get a bit further up the hill.  The local farmer has just gone up the road with his plough and grit unit on so maybe not so good up on the ridge.

Last year we drove over Blakey Ridge to go up to Saltburn and although there was a dusting of snow in Hutton it was almost a complete whiteout by The Lion!  Again the AWD came to the rescue! ?

Shame the current cold spell seems to be coming to an end, but fingers crossed not the last before the end of March. 

 

1B742692-959F-4E94-A79D-3A23CD6B3856.jpeg

Edited by SouthYorks
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