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North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards


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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Not joking,the milkman is outside delivering milk next door,how spooky is that.

And yes spooky a milkman who delivers at 11.00pm at night

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Some pictures from new Brighton around high tide this afternoon

Up Malham Moor earlier today.

Buxton.

Posted Images

Snake pass not shut at all this "Winter" sums up how diabolical it's been up to now. If somewhere that high up (510m) cannot even get a good covering just the once we're screwed in the future.

Screenshot_20200210-230652.thumb.png.e9e2e53542ed1b81ff5195264bf7264b.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Snake pass not shut at all this "Winter" sums up how diabolical it's been up to now. If somewhere that high up (510m) cannot even get a good covering just the once we're screwed in the future.

Screenshot_20200210-230652.thumb.png.e9e2e53542ed1b81ff5195264bf7264b.png

 

 

How is the current winter relevant to future winters?

 

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22 minutes ago, Mucka said:

How is the current winter relevant to future winters?

 

A warming climate means Winters like this one will happen more frequently. Winters are definitely not as cold or as snowy as they were when I was growing up. (Born in the 1950's) Okay it was never like Canadian or Russian Winters but they were for sure more wintry compared to these days. Something has changed & it's steadily going in the milder direction.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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14 minutes ago, James M said:

Woke up to check how it’s going, pretty disappointing so far. Just windy and not even a dusting.

Tues is the last hope for 'winter' james.

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47 minutes ago, James M said:

Aye, well unless we get winter in spring again ?

I fully expect masses of Greeny blocking come April/may.

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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I notice in recent winters when it is very windy in this set-up, you can almost write off snow chances for low ground, when you do get showers. 

Also I have been monitoring the Euro 4 preciptation charts and none of the recent runs have ever looked favourable at all in terms of shower distribution for areas you would think should be getting showers in this set-up

Edited by Weather-history
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18 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I notice in recent winters when it is very windy in this set-up, you can almost write off snow chances for low ground, when you do get showers. 

Also I have been monitoring the Euro 4 preciptation charts and none of the recent runs have never looked favourable at all in terms of shower distribution for areas you would think should be getting showers in this set-up

Meto app is a right old card, its got heavy snow all morning now locally

They really need to do away with it ,its garbage, and very very misleading for people out there who use it for work etc.

Might as well read the Daily mail, infact don't get me started on the Daily fail.

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Dry all night and still no sign of anything coming. Temp and DP are exactly the same as 12 hours ago if not  a little higher, 5.5/0.5. Things need to change very soon otherwise this will be an epic fail for most. I'm not actually that surprised as like I said yesterday a very strong flow can ruin everything.

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Just now, Chris.R said:

Dry all night and still no sign of anything coming. Temp and DP are exactly the same as 12 hours ago if not  a little higher, 5.5/0.5. Things need to change very soon otherwise this will be an epic fail for most. I'm not actually that surprised as like I said yesterday a very strong flow can ruin everything.

All the action in NI and Scotland.

Im sure westerlies /north westerlies used to deliver IMBY.

They simply do not anymore.

 

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

All the action in NI and Scotland.

Im sure westerlies /north westerlies used to deliver IMBY.

They simply do not anymore.

 

They definitely used to, even here at least 50% of the time. I just think this flow is way way too strong for the Irish sea track..

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3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

They definitely used to, even here at least 50% of the time. I just think this flow is way way too strong for the Irish sea track..

There is always a different reason for every new failure though Chris.

The reality is we live in a different climate than 30 to 40 years ago, people can deny it as much as they like but looking out to wet concrete virtually every winter tells the story perfectly.

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Something odd is going on, I don't know if there is a gravity or standing wave effect involved but watch the showers come over the Irish landmass die out as they head out over the Irish Sea but showers redevelop over the mountain of Wales and inland parts of northern England. 

Very very odd, natural instinct is showers at this time of the year survive over water and die out as head further inland.

Its almost a summer type convection set up with a sea breeze front killing the showers from coastal areas.

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The latest WRF which is my preferred model has delayed the coldest T850s until this afternoon now. It has also delayed the sub 520 dam air and coldest T500s until after late morning. We also have a spike of CAPE starting soon. My best guess would be that if this flow can produce anything over the Irish sea we should start to see showers developing from around 8 am lasting until around 6 pm. As yesterday the extra input of insolation May enhance the CAPE inland This afternoon.

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Meto app has heavy snow locally from 8am until dinner time.

LOL.

?

I know people say ignore, and above is a example of why , but it begs the question, why have these apps.

Its beyond parody.

Edited by northwestsnow
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49 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

The latest WRF which is my preferred model has delayed the coldest T850s until this afternoon now. It has also delayed the sub 520 dam air and coldest T500s until after late morning. We also have a spike of CAPE starting soon. My best guess would be that if this flow can produce anything over the Irish sea we should start to see showers developing from around 8 am lasting until around 6 pm. As yesterday the extra input of insolation May enhance the CAPE inland This afternoon.

Odd how suddenly a cluster of shower develops off the Fylde and Ribble estuary area, 

Shower development can be baffling at times. 

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