Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Summer Sun

Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

Recommended Posts

40 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think the thing that goes against that is the pure fact we had an exceptional summer last summer, it'd be pretty much unprecedented to get two summers like that in a row...and even the summer before last wasn't too bad. Of course there always is a time for a first!

I wouldn't be that shocked to see it go the other way, especially given the +ve NAO thus far this winter (which 2006-2007 also shares...), for a more average or a little above but wetter than normal summer after perhaps a decent spring.

Sadly , having kids that were young over the period, the 'washout summers' were terribly similar in their format?

To me they were driven /forced/enabled by the loss of ice at the Atlantic entrance to the basin allowing an huge uptake of energy to impart into the climate system come refreeze.

By 2012 the opening of the Pacific side of the basin, in my mind, gave us yet another jolt of 'energy into the climate system via its milking of the solar that used to be rejected.

The 'energy' goes to switch the amplitude/frequency of the undulations of the polar jet shifting us from the trough to the SW of ireland to this new position ( reset for every model run is now H.P. from where I view it!) promoting H.P. dominance as the go to?

We are now outside of the mangling of that mega Nino so we'll see where the 'reset' for us is these days but I very much suspect we have 'shifted on' from the SW Ireland trough to a Far North Scotland ridge?

Run this into summer and we do get a better one ( more established in the new 'ice free' forcings) than last year?

I'm on for a blazing drought year myself......but then the same can be said about next year if we have swapped out 'washout summers' for 'drought years'?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kold weather said:

I think the thing that goes against that is the pure fact we had an exceptional summer last summer, it'd be pretty much unprecedented to get two summers like that in a row...and even the summer before last wasn't too bad. Of course there always is a time for a first!

I wouldn't be that shocked to see it go the other way, especially given the +ve NAO thus far this winter (which 2006-2007 also shares...), for a more average or a little above but wetter than normal summer after perhaps a decent spring.

1975 and 1976 spring to mind. The dryness of 1975 contributed to the 1976 drought. August 1975 was also the warmest August on record until 1995.

We missed the boat in 2015 but maybe we’ll get to break the August record again 24 years later. The only way is up..

Edited by cheese

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

We are now outside of the mangling of that mega Nino so we'll see where the 'reset' for us is these days but I very much suspect we have 'shifted on' from the SW Ireland trough to a Far North Scotland ridge?

Run this into summer and we do get a better one ( more established in the new 'ice free' forcings) than last year?

I'm on for a blazing drought year myself......but then the same can be said about next year if we have swapped out 'washout summers' for 'drought years'?

Hard to say, but I'm pretty sure people were thinking similar things after Summer 2006 (especially its record breaking July) and the mild winter of 06-07 + April 2007 and that served us a huge slap in the face that summer. I'm not saying its going to be like 2007..but I am saying I doubt its quite as impressive as 2018!

Interesting to hear about 1975, that summer clearly gets overlooked due to its closeness to the legendary 1976 summer, that August does sound very impressive!

 

Edited by kold weather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is turning into a summer discussion thread rather than Spring it seems. We've had a 12 month dry period starting last February. I've commented many a time how we have had lengthy dry periods followed by lengthy wet periods, and then mixed average periods inbetween. Since Feb last year the atlantic has in the main been very quiet, ridges and high pressure have ruled the roost - this winter has followed suit. A dry Spring could be on the cards, possibly heights might be more centered to our north than recently. What has been a notable feature of the last 25 years or so, have been major sudden quite dramatic flips from wet to dry and vice versa

Winter 94/95 was a very wet one, a flip took place in early March and then followed a very dry 2 year period - not sure what caused the flip.

The next flip came summer 97, very wet June and August, a major El Nino and there followed a lengthy very wet period culminating in the exceptionally wet autumn and early winter of 2001

The period up to Feb 2005 was then fairly average. We then had another very dry period lasting up to winter 06/07 with some very warm weather at times. A very wet period then occurred again, with terrible summers until Dec 2009 - then a flip again, the cold dry winter, followed by two dry years culminating in the impressive March of 2012. Another major flip in April 2012, with some very wet periods interspersed with average spells then the dry came back again in Feb 2018, will we see a year of further dry weather?

Summer 92 - Feb 95 very wet

Mar 95 - Apr 97 very dry

May 97 - Dec 00 very wet

Jan 01 - Feb 05 average

Mar 05 - Dec 06 very dry

Jan 07 - Nov 09 very wet

Dec 09 - Mar 12 very dry

Apr 12 - Feb 18 - very wet generally

Mar 18 onwards dry..

Very wet, very dry,average, very dry, very wet, very dry, very wet, very dry (we seem to be missing the average bits now..)

Edited by damianslaw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

This summer could rival '76 in my very honest opinion.

Cannot see it personally. 18C summer months almost always occur in a developing Nino state. We are likely headed for neutral or Nina as things stand.

It may not be bad (96, 14), but I doubt we see a classic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hopefully not another wet March this year. Last year in particular was very wet and, until December, was the wettest month of the year. Had it not been for the two beasts, it would’ve been an awful month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Cannot see it personally. 18C summer months almost always occur in a developing Nino state. We are likely headed for neutral or Nina as things stand.

It may not be bad (96, 14), but I doubt we see a classic.

I'll take that as a positive 'background signal' then, SB!😄

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, cheese said:

1975 and 1976 spring to mind. The dryness of 1975 contributed to the 1976 drought. August 1975 was also the warmest August on record until 1995.

We missed the boat in 2015 but maybe we’ll get to break the August record again 24 years later. The only way is up..

1975/1976, 1989/1990, 1994/1995, 2013/2014.

All decent or good summers that came in pairs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First spring prang today.

Less the mild temperature as there is quite a keen breeze taking the edge off it, but more the strength and angle of the sun.

 

Daffs are out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The output tonight for the time of year especially is fairly spectacular. High pressure values may prevent us recording daily record values as minima may drop but with warm air aloft (5C+) we may be looking at some high maxima away from coasts.

A month too soon but with a stagnant Pacific wave not likely to move the pattern anytime soon i was wondering if Weather History or Rodger could post the record maxima for 20th Feb-10th March. Although i could be wrong i think this has the hallmark of a persistent March 12, April 07 pattern in which we may keep the high a few weeks (amazingly the Euro at day 10 is even pluming at both the surface and higher atmosphere albeit uppers not too high).

ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

NOAA_1_2012032600_1.png

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This spring has been amazing so far, especially since it started in winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, definitely ready for this warmer weather on the way. Winter 18/19 can do one now! 🌞

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/02/2019 at 19:33, kold weather said:

I think the thing that goes against that is the pure fact we had an exceptional summer last summer, it'd be pretty much unprecedented to get two summers like that in a row...and even the summer before last wasn't too bad. Of course there always is a time for a first!

 

Use to be the stats that was alway trotted out about two great summers going in pairs.  Summers 1975, 1976?   1983, 1984? 1975 was a very great summer followed by an even greater one the following year.

Manchester Summer Indices were 268 ('75) and 301 ('76), 278 ('83) and 271 ('84)

The other pairs trotted as examples:  1989-90  1994-95 I think summer 1990 is overrated as summer 1994 is underrated,

 

 

 

 

Edited by Weather-history

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

We certainly need a very wet Spring,levels are far to low for this time of year. Far better a wet Spring than a wet Summer(i would like both!) but Summer is the holiday period,a lot depends on that time of year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The accuweather spring forecast is out

While much of the southern United Kingdom will bask in dry and mild weather this spring, northern regions are set to endure rainy spells throughout the season.

High pressure systems that set up over western Europe into the Bay of Biscay will force the storm track for the season just north of Scotland and into Scandinavia, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys. This means the northern half of the U.K. will have frequent rainy spells.

1179726347_DzZAihrUwAAb7o1.jpglarge.thumb.jpg.cb982dfd13ccd6e54b5f4de08e339b03.jpg

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2019-uk-spring-forecast/70007418

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

unusual if so, normally high over Scotland, low over South, 

hope correct, would make a decent Spring

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

unusual if so, normally high over Scotland, low over South, 

hope correct, would make a decent Spring

Prevailing weather pattern is low pressure to north of Scotland and higher pressure relative to low pressure further south - the accuweather just says normal service with a northerly tracking jet - nothing unusual at all.

Going back to post above regarding stuck pattern akin to April 2007 and March 2012 - hope note, both were followed by a flip to sustained very unsettled weather, cold to boot in April 2012 as well.. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really did feel springlike today, and lovely wall to wall sunshine.  Ive given up on a decent cold spell in the foreseeable so this is the next best thing this time of year!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could low solar activity have impacted the poor summers of 2007-2012? I think some thought that might have been the case at the time? If so it is possible we could see a string of poor summers again coming up ,given how inactive the sun is again with the solar min of this cycle too.

Perhaps something to keep in mind this summer.  Perhaps summer 2018 was this cycles version of 2006 after which was followed by those poor summers.

Edited by sundog

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quasi spring today. Wintry first thing with frost and local fog, gorgeous sunshine and a high off 11C after, then cold again tonight.

Informally, spring starts for me on the first 15C day (first 25C day - summer, sub 15C day - autumn, sub 5C day - winter). That could be the case next week!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Quasi spring today. Wintry first thing with frost and local fog, gorgeous sunshine and a high off 11C after, then cold again tonight.

Informally, spring starts for me on the first 15C day (first 25C day - summer, sub 15C day - autumn, sub 5C day - winter). That could be the case next week!

has winter started yet then?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a fabulous day out there. Can’t believe it’s February, feels like April!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

has winter started yet then?

Yes haha. December 14th, only sub 5C day of the whole month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This kind of weather lulls you into a false sense of security.

Gloriously warm from like midday onwards, then as soon as the sun sets it's absolutely frigid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...