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Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Can the Atlantic not just die already? 

The outlook for February is awful, every day I check the models looking for a way out and there isn't one. 

Also, anybody find it unfair how the US and Canada keep getting outstanding winters and record breaking cold spells, whilst we are subjected to gales and lashing rain?

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
3 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Can the Atlantic not just die already? 

The outlook for February is awful, every day I check the models looking for a way out and there isn't one. 

Also, anybody find it unfair how the US and Canada keep getting outstanding winters and record breaking cold spells, whilst we are subjected to gales and lashing rain?

They are a big landmass with no big body of water to the north so there's no moderation in northerly winds from the Arctic. Hence the regular bitter Winters over there. It's nothing new though. It's the same for the likes of Russia/Central Asia & China. No water to the north to stunt any cold north wind.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

The most unusual thing really is the strength of the Atlantic, now that we're into the quietest month of the winter and one of the most benign months of the year. Doesn't look like it this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
16 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

can spring start early this year...please 

What were the Spring/Summers of 2007, 2010 and 2016 like in Canada. 

Also 2013 and 2017. 

(These most closely match my ENSO expectations for the moment).

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

What were the Spring/Summers of 2007, 2010 and 2016 like in Canada. 

Also 2013 and 2017. 

(These most closely match my ENSO expectations for the moment).

don't know about 2007 or 2016 as i was in the UK..although 2016 in Edmonton was pretty wet and cool apparently...2010 spring started warm became cold and wet the summer was was very stormy and 2013 was fairly average from memory..the last 2 summers have been warm/very warm and dry.

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I'm already of the opinion this could be a drought year. As much as I'd love to see a 2007 or 2012, I can't help but think we'll see another hot and dry summer. The abundance of mid latitude blocking since spring last year has been quite phenomenal IMO and I'm not sure what will change to promote a shift to a more -AO scenario overall for the spring/summer period. The early Jan SSW did nothing on a profound scale to alter fortunes our side of the hemisphere but what we are seeing is a repeated nosing in of the Azores HP, sometimes just getting to our E. This has been a recurring theme since early/mid last year.

Just thoughts at the moment, but if I was a heat lover (I'm not) I'd be much more confident of seeing a good summer at this point than a poor one.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

This coming week will be feeling spring like at times with winds coming up from a southerly direction allowing for some good spells on sunshine

giphy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

This coming week will be feeling spring like at times with winds coming up from a southerly direction allowing for some good spells on sunshine

giphy.gif

Yup, temps in double digits with sunshine.

Might even get the lawns mowed.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire

Cant complain this week at all - spring will most definitely feel like it has sprung! All the ingrediants are in place for some 'warm' ish afternoons to come 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Especially with high sunshine levels which is pretty rare in a warm winter spell, usually comes in with a huge amount of Atlantic muck.

Anyway could see some decent temperature swing this week, probably frosty mornings followed by a quick warm up. That is my favourite Spring weather. I remember 2007 (and 2011) both had this in abduance, temperatures starting cold down at 1-5c, but a rapid warm up into the low 20s by midday. Great spells of weather.

I suspect we may well get one prolonged warm spell like that in the next 2-3 months...but I think things may go down hill into late May/June. Luckily the ENSO state isn't going to be strongly swung one way or the other, so should avoid the fate we had in 2007 IMO....because both the summer and winter thus far have been very 2006-2007 like in many ways (another reason I think we may end up evolving a decent 2-3 week warm spell in this Spring.)

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I suspect we may well get one prolonged warm spell like that in the next 2-3 months...but I think things may go down hill into late May/June. Luckily the ENSO state isn't going to be strongly swung one way or the other, so should avoid the fate we had in 2007 IMO....because both the summer and winter thus far have been very 2006-2007 like in many ways (another reason I think we may end up evolving a decent 2-3 week warm spell in this Spring.)

God I hope not. I'd happily trade a nice April for a nice May-July if it means avoiding those months like we had in 2007. Having said that though, the first 12 days of June 2007 were very decent down here.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

God I hope not. I'd happily trade a nice April for a nice May-July if it means avoiding those months like we had in 2007. Having said that though, the first 12 days of June 2007 were very decent down here.

I remember the winter of 2005 through to the Spring of 2007 was pretty dry overall and after the previous summer there were talks of hosepipe bans in April/May and the water companies starting putting restrictive measures in...then we had one of the wetter summer periods we've ever had, especially the May-July period which I believe was up there in terms of wettest ever...after that wonderful April.

I remember a lot of water companies saying it won't be enough to replenish stocks, but the rain kept on coming and by August the risk of drought was pretty much gone. (not far off half a years worth of rain in 3 months).

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I remember the winter of 2005 through to the Spring of 2007 was pretty dry overall and after the previous summer there were talks of hosepipe bans in April/May and the water companies starting putting restrictive measures in...then we had one of the wetter summer periods we've ever had, especially the May-July period which I believe was up there in terms of wettest ever...after that wonderful April.

I remember a lot of water companies saying it won't be enough to replenish stocks, but the rain kept on coming and by August the risk of drought was pretty much gone. (not far off half a years worth of rain in 3 months).

Then we had a very dry August-October lol. Fortunately down here, the taps turned on in earnest in September 2006, and most of that autumn/winter was pretty wet, especially November. If anything, mid March to the end of April was a nice respite. I'm sure May 2007 was one of the years the Ten Tors was called off because of how bad the weather was.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Come on Spring!

Although I've noticed the rapidly extending daylight now, I still haven't had my first "spring prang"

 

I should get that later this week if it's actually sunny. Might lay on my car bonnet like a starfish.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The ensemble mean maps for February have updated, and they show high pressure in charge through spring as a result it's a bit drier than normal and slightly warmer than normal

2cat_20190201_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.8d7fc5b6ef545d7e669525442e42178a.png2cat_20190201_prec_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.c1b9109e68093f2d7931e99cc955a3b6.png2cat_20190201_temp2m_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.4ec6618a16a0ed5addab1efdffc9856c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
8 hours ago, kold weather said:

Especially with high sunshine levels which is pretty rare in a warm winter spell, usually comes in with a huge amount of Atlantic muck.

Anyway could see some decent temperature swing this week, probably frosty mornings followed by a quick warm up. That is my favourite Spring weather. I remember 2007 (and 2011) both had this in abduance, temperatures starting cold down at 1-5c, but a rapid warm up into the low 20s by midday. Great spells of weather.

I suspect we may well get one prolonged warm spell like that in the next 2-3 months...but I think things may go down hill into late May/June. Luckily the ENSO state isn't going to be strongly swung one way or the other, so should avoid the fate we had in 2007 IMO....because both the summer and winter thus far have been very 2006-2007 like in many ways (another reason I think we may end up evolving a decent 2-3 week warm spell in this Spring.)

This summer could rival '76 in my very honest opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This summer could rival '76 in my very honest opinion.

Similar to last year then.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This summer could rival '76 in my very honest opinion.

So long as the summer doesn't turn out like the winter has...always on the cusp of something special? Are the building blocks in place, already?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This summer could rival '76 in my very honest opinion.

I think the thing that goes against that is the pure fact we had an exceptional summer last summer, it'd be pretty much unprecedented to get two summers like that in a row...and even the summer before last wasn't too bad. Of course there always is a time for a first!

I wouldn't be that shocked to see it go the other way, especially given the +ve NAO thus far this winter (which 2006-2007 also shares...), for a more average or a little above but wetter than normal summer after perhaps a decent spring.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.

Given the global patterns I’d be highly surprised to see a colder than average summer. We’d be one of the only temperate locations to get one if so!

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