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Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
On 22/01/2019 at 20:58, Evening Star said:

Is any link between SSW that cause blocking later in the winter and warm summers?  I know both 2013 and 2018 had cold, blocked March's and ended up with very warm July's.

Summer 2018 had very robust tropical wave activity moving through the Pacific on a repeated basis. I would say it had more to do with the developing Nino than anything else.

...

As for my own thoughts, the fact that the sub-suface is cooling but there is no wave of cool anomolies waiting in the wings would suggest that Nino springs (cool early, warm late) are probably the best analogues however a -AMO and -PDO could signal a -AO.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
13 hours ago, coldie said:

Not really bothered tbh, if I waant to go to the beach i'll go abroad, if I want a cold one I'll go to the pub and as for the bbqs they're overrated 

Fair enough haha

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Posted
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
2 hours ago, Evening Star said:

Fair enough haha

In all seriousness though I don't mind the warm summer evenings as long as it's not too humid! Summer 1018 started off perfect with low humidity but after a while it just got hot and sticky.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
5 hours ago, coldie said:

In all seriousness though I don't mind the warm summer evenings as long as it's not too humid! Summer 1018 started off perfect with low humidity but after a while it just got hot and sticky.

Yes, May and June were gorgeous here.  We never reached 30C here but it was consistently warm.

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Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex

Come looking for this thread. Sick of cold rain, dreaming of the late Spring and Summer of 2018 hoping we get more of the same. Roll on warmth, time for you to depart miserable Winter of 18/19. 

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Any signs of spring on the horizon in the models?

i know we have about eight different threads for discussing winter and even a ‘hunt for cold’ model thread, but I don’t recall ever seeing a ‘hunt for warmth’ one.

Definitely a cold bias on this site. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
2 hours ago, Azazel said:

Any signs of spring on the horizon in the models?

i know we have about eight different threads for discussing winter and even a ‘hunt for cold’ model thread, but I don’t recall ever seeing a ‘hunt for warmth’ one.

Definitely a cold bias on this site. 

00z ECM has hints of an early spring

ECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.1b1059dfa3cbf40af6235e2c87f52518.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
5 hours ago, Azazel said:

Any signs of spring on the horizon in the models?

i know we have about eight different threads for discussing winter and even a ‘hunt for cold’ model thread, but I don’t recall ever seeing a ‘hunt for warmth’ one.

Definitely a cold bias on this site. 

I feel like Spring is a neglected season on this site.

Autumn is usually full of people expecting full-blown winter to arrive by early November. Early Spring is usually full of people looking for Winter to drag on to late March/early April or looking ahead for signs of the next Summer of '76.

Personally I would quite like a memorable early Spring for dry and pleasantly mild conditions. As in Spring actually arriving sometime in March and not being put on hold for a couple of months. April Showers can go bugger off to somewhere else like Spain. May seems to be hit and miss in recent years whether we get a hot spell or more disappointing, grey and wet weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
4 hours ago, ManiaMuse said:

I feel like Spring is a neglected season on this site.

Autumn is usually full of people expecting full-blown winter to arrive by early November. Early Spring is usually full of people looking for Winter to drag on to late March/early April or looking ahead for signs of the next Summer of '76.

Personally I would quite like a memorable early Spring for dry and pleasantly mild conditions. As in Spring actually arriving sometime in March and not being put on hold for a couple of months. April Showers can go bugger off to somewhere else like Spain. May seems to be hit and miss in recent years whether we get a hot spell or more disappointing, grey and wet weather.

Spring and Autumn are generally neglected. Usually when people say what spring weather they want they really mean 'summer' and likewise with Autumn: they mean 'winter'.

Not that it means anything as we can never be overdue a particular weather type, but we actually had the warmest spring on record just recently in 2017 (and 3 others in the previous decade that were 10+C).

If anything an average spring would be nice with alternating cold and warm spells similar to 1995 leading to a back-end summer rather than it all being over by August.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
12 hours ago, Azazel said:

Any signs of spring on the horizon in the models?

i know we have about eight different threads for discussing winter and even a ‘hunt for cold’ model thread, but I don’t recall ever seeing a ‘hunt for warmth’ one.

Definitely a cold bias on this site. 

Well seeing as the majority of people would want cold in winter, and warmth in summer, its no surprise that there are plenty of cold threads in winter surely lol? Its hardly a bias haha

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
3 hours ago, Rambo said:

Well seeing as the majority of people would want cold in winter, and warmth in summer, its no surprise that there are plenty of cold threads in winter surely lol? Its hardly a bias haha

There are nowhere near as many ‘summer’ themed threads in the summer. That’s all I’m saying and certainly not a ‘hunt for heat’ one.

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Believe it or not, more likely we have summer warmth than winter cold, and summer warmth is a stretch sometimes!

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I wouldn’t say know to spring warmth like Feb 2008 this month if it’s the best we can achieve out of a +NAO setup. Anything but mild, wet and windy.

Come spring, a gradual warm up would be nice, not a lingering cold one or an abnormally warm/hot one that compromises the following summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
14 hours ago, Rambo said:

Well seeing as the majority of people would want cold in winter, and warmth in summer, its no surprise that there are plenty of cold threads in winter surely lol? Its hardly a bias haha

Isn’t that the definition of bias? Focusing on things you want and ignoring things you don’t. We’re all biased to a certain extent.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I wouldn’t say know to spring warmth like Feb 2008 this month if it’s the best we can achieve out of a +NAO setup. Anything but mild, wet and windy.

Come spring, a gradual warm up would be nice, not a lingering cold one or an abnormally warm/hot one that compromises the following summer.

May last year was very warm, and of course we almost reached 30C in April, so I’m not sure there’s any substance to that.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
4 minutes ago, cheese said:

May last year was very warm, and of course we almost reached 30C in April, so I’m not sure there’s any substance to that.

Sure, but how long was April’s hot spell...

I’m talking ones along the lines of 2007 or 2011. Brief spurts of warmth/heat are almost to be expected from April onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Sure I felt the slight warmth of the sun yesterday for the first time - it’s nice towards the middle of feb and early March as the days start to get noticeably longer and the sun gets higher and warmer ...

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Sure, but how long was April’s hot spell...

I’m talking ones along the lines of 2007 or 2011. Brief spurts of warmth/heat are almost to be expected from April onwards.

I guess, but usually in April it’s a day or two around 20C, not nudging 30C.

wasnt April 2014 quite warm too? 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
5 minutes ago, cheese said:

I guess, but usually in April it’s a day or two around 20C, not nudging 30C.

wasnt April 2014 quite warm too? 

Well yes. I’m just making the point that we tend to see patterns becoming set for longer, so a persistent anticyclonic warmth setup in spring probably won’t last through the summer. That’s why I quite liked the progression of last spring.

March was decreasingly cold and wet, April started cold, then hot spell and a chilly finish. Likewise May’s first half was coolish other than bank holiday then became more stably warm and dry.

2014 was indeed warmer than average but rather homogenously so and as much due to high minima. April itself was unremarkable. May, yet again, was quite wet.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Last spring was so weird it was pretty much a non event.

 

i seem to remember the brutal cold of March, then it being grey, cold and miserable for a bit at the beginning of April and then suddenly it flipped into full blown summer until mid July.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Spring is a season i like for the fact that it has the best temperature-weather combination. It also has the best floral outcome.

That being said i am guilty of some bias. March 12, April 07 and May 08/18 were simply spectacular months in terms of the dry heat they produced (i detest humidity).

.. That said, i don't think a very settled spring is as likely this year. They tend to occur more often in developing +enso events as opposed to our weakening or static state.

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Well it's inevitably going to get a bit warmer the further we go into Spring. That is a given. I wouldn't mind a very cold March though with easterly winds dominating and a proper beast or two like last year. A chilly old school April with still frost's and a day or two of snow cover like 2012. May can do whatever it wants. Overall I find Spring interesting as anything can happen. Although last year we didn't really have a Spring - we just seemed to jump straight from Winter into Summer like another poster above noted. It certainly wasn't the usual slow burner into Summer. A bit continental really.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

can spring start early this year...please 

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