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Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

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Keeping in line with previous years thread it's now time to open the spring 2019 thread as we're now just 5 weeks and a few days from Spring

How are things looking currently?

Jamstec has updated today and it currently points to a colder than average Spring for the UK, ROI and Western Europe

temp2_glob.MAM2019.1jan2019.thumb.gif.3804238e710e5b0c9b23d09aec74439a.gif

The met office Ensemble-mean maps point to a lot of northern blocking through spring as a result it too has temps lower than average

2cat_20190101_t850_months35_global_deter_public.thumb.png.abe053d388ff59bc3bfb086f3d19efe9.png2cat_20190101_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.thumb.png.d7bbaff3f954f75bc6d41dd87001a9c3.png

So a couple of early forecasts point towards a below average spring temperature wise.

More forecasts will start and get issued in the coming weeks with 1 more update before spring starts from Jamstec & the met office Ensemble-mean maps in February

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One thing that is assured is that the second week of march will feature biting easterly winds and leaden skies (but no snow - maybe just a few grains). I know this because I am on holiday that week and the children will be desperate to do outdoor stuff....

Everything I've seen or read seems to indicate that a cold spring is a given. They seem to be routine now (certainly they are predicted every year since 2013). Blocking statistically more likely in spring anyway, couple that with sod's law that it won't deliver in winter and it's not hard to see it panning out that way again.

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3 hours ago, Certain kind of fool said:

One thing that is assured is that the second week of march will feature biting easterly winds and leaden skies (but no snow - maybe just a few grains). I know this because I am on holiday that week and the children will be desperate to do outdoor stuff....

Everything I've seen or read seems to indicate that a cold spring is a given. They seem to be routine now (certainly they are predicted every year since 2013). Blocking statistically more likely in spring anyway, couple that with sod's law that it won't deliver in winter and it's not hard to see it panning out that way again.

Really? Last March was cold but April and a May weren’t. 2017 wasn’t cold either. Or 2016.

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4 minutes ago, cheese said:

Really? Last March was cold but April and a May weren’t. 2017 wasn’t cold either. Or 2016.

or 2014 and 2015.

I worded that very badly - I meant predictions of cold springs are routine!

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Funny, I was just thinking about whether I could stomach another round of 'chase the easterly' or am I ready for Spring. It's far too early, I know. But after this miserly of a Winter, one can't help but dream of a Spring/Summer similar to the ones just past.

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would love an early spring ...then i can get out on my bike etc.

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1 hour ago, Certain kind of fool said:

or 2014 and 2015.

I worded that very badly - I meant predictions of cold springs are routine!

Fair enough. In any case I’m looking forward to spring! Can’t wait for the dawn chorus to start up again. 

Edited by cheese
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2013, 2010, 2006, 2002, 1997, 1996 and 1994 all had below average or cold springs, and most of them had above average summers to follow.

Spring 2018 was diabolically bad until mid-April, and we know how that late spring/summer turned out.

Edited by B87

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The thought of a cool/cold spring after this winter so far is quite depressing. That said, I'd take a spring like last year if it meant a summer like last year.

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20 minutes ago, B87 said:

2013, 2010, 2006, 2002, 1997, 1996 and 1994 all had below average or cold springs, and most of them had above average summers to follow.

Spring 2018 was diabolically bad until mid-April, and we know how that late spring/summer turned out.

Most lot of those years didn't have cold springs... 2013 and 1996 were no doubt chilly affairs, but a number of these springs were above average and many featured well above average months! Marches 1994, 1997 and 2002 were all well above average, particularly 1997 which is about 4th/5th warmest on record. Aprils 1996, 1997, 2002, 2006 and 2010 all were mild to warm. The years mentioned did have a lot cooler Mays, particularly 1994, 1996, 2010 and 2013. May 1997 had exceptionally late snows early in the month but overall was average. 2002 was rather warm, as was 2006. Didn't wanna come off as rude but just want to spread correct info

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8 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Most lot of those years didn't have cold springs... 2013 and 1996 were no doubt chilly affairs, but a number of these springs were above average and many featured well above average months! Marches 1994, 1997 and 2002 were all well above average, particularly 1997 which is about 4th/5th warmest on record. Aprils 1996, 1997, 2002, 2006 and 2010 all were mild to warm. The years mentioned did have a lot cooler Mays, particularly 1994, 1996, 2010 and 2013. May 1997 had exceptionally late snows early in the month but overall was average. 2002 was rather warm, as was 2006. Didn't wanna come off as rude but just want to spread correct info

wasn't April 1997 very sunny warm and dry from memory?

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1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

wasn't April 1997 very sunny warm and dry from memory?

Wasn't alive but data shows yes. Trevor Harley says about April 1997

 

"April. Very dry across much of the country (except for northern Scotland): across the country the driest since 1984, and the warmest since 1987. The Thames was at a very low level. 21.6C at Bristol on the 9th and Gatwick on the 10th. Some frosty nights though: -7C at Glenlivet on the 29th and Chesham (Bucks.) and Rickmansworth on the 21st. Some places had no rain until the 25th; Wales then received 58 mm on the 25th. It was very sunny in the south and east; 140% of expected sunshine in London." C.E.T. of 9.0

Edited by LetItSnow!

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15 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Most lot of those years didn't have cold springs... 2013 and 1996 were no doubt chilly affairs, but a number of these springs were above average and many featured well above average months! Marches 1994, 1997 and 2002 were all well above average, particularly 1997 which is about 4th/5th warmest on record. Aprils 1996, 1997, 2002, 2006 and 2010 all were mild to warm. The years mentioned did have a lot cooler Mays, particularly 1994, 1996, 2010 and 2013. May 1997 had exceptionally late snows early in the month but overall was average. 2002 was rather warm, as was 2006. Didn't wanna come off as rude but just want to spread correct info

They were below average in London, may not have been cold everywhere. I added 1997 by mistake, and I was thinking of 2001, not 2002.

Average high temps for those springs in London. The average high temp for spring in London is 14.5c.

1994: Mar 12.3c, Apr 13.3c, May 16.0c (spring av: 13.9c)

1996: Mar 8.6c, Apr 14.3c, May 15.1c (spring av: 12.7c)

2001: Mar 9.5c, Apr 12.8c, May 18.8c (spring av: 13.7c)

2006: Mar 9.4c, Apr 14.1c, May 18.0c (spring av: 13.8c)

2010: Mar 11.1c, Apr 15.8c, May 17.3c (spring av: 14.7c) this one above average, but I remember the May being very poor for most of the month.

2013: Mar 6.9c, Apr 13.5c, May 16.4c (spring av: 12.3c)

 

On an unrelated note, how to I stop having double-line spacing when hitting enter to start a new line on this forum?

 

 

Edited by B87

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Hopefully a colder than average spring with some snow and ice that will lead into a below average temperature summer which will be cool and wet right through to autumn. 🙂

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2 minutes ago, simshady said:

Hopefully a colder than average spring with some snow and ice that will lead into a below average temperature summer which will be cool and wet right through to autumn. 🙂

i would prefer a warm spring followed by a cool summer

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I'd be happy with a totally average spring and summer.

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Hoping for another 19+ CET Summer this year.  A 16+ CET May would be nice too.

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34 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i would prefer a warm spring followed by a cool summer

For my location warm spring and cool summer are often full of big T-storms..2010 here was a classic example of stormy summer

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15 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

For my location warm spring and cool summer are often full of big T-storms..2010 here was a classic example of stormy summer

Is any link between SSW that cause blocking later in the winter and warm summers?  I know both 2013 and 2018 had cold, blocked March's and ended up with very warm July's.

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20 hours ago, Evening Star said:

Is any link between SSW that cause blocking later in the winter and warm summers?  I know both 2013 and 2018 had cold, blocked March's and ended up with very warm July's.

i have no idea i don't live in the UK

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On Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 20:03, simshady said:

Hopefully a colder than average spring with some snow and ice that will lead into a below average temperature summer which will be cool and wet right through to autumn. 🙂

That sounds perfect slimshady, after the hot summer we had last year I can't see us getting 2 hot summers in a row i'm expecting an average summer this year.

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Dread to think the ssw wiuld put spring on hold.

Way winter has gone i wouldn't wager against a long cold spring such is our luck.

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1 minute ago, joggs said:

Dread to think the ssw wiuld put spring on hold.

Way winter has gone i wouldn't wager against a long cold spring such is our luck.

Hopefully 

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33 minutes ago, coldie said:

That sounds perfect slimshady, after the hot summer we had last year I can't see us getting 2 hot summers in a row i'm expecting an average summer this year.

How on earth is a cold and wet summer perfect? 😮 Do you hate the beach, BBQs and just cracking open a cold one with mates on a warm summer evening? 😂

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9 minutes ago, Evening Star said:

How on earth is a cold and wet summer perfect? 😮 Do you hate the beach, BBQs and just cracking open a cold one with mates on a warm summer evening? 😂

Not really bothered tbh, if I waant to go to the beach i'll go abroad, if I want a cold one I'll go to the pub and as for the bbqs they're overrated 🤣

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