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Paul

This is the focused model discussion - please only post about the model output. 

For a more laid back, bantery model discussion please use the Cold hunt - models and banter thread.

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The EPS mean anomalies at the beginning of next week are interesting and very indicative of the ops run

By Tuesday midnight the upper trough resulting from the cyclonic activities of the next few days is jammed between the highly amplified Atlantic and the east European high and subsequently is ejected south into the eastern Med and points beyond and taking some quite cold air with it. Over the next few days the two high pressure zones phase together with a lot of pressure still being exerted from the west with a 150kt jet exiting the eastern seaboard and it is this fluidity, in what is a rather amplified arena, that is, imo,  making it difficult to identify with any confidence the direction of travel at the moment

t108.thumb.png.de1b34f53b8b0177677ec74d8721b344.pngt150.thumb.png.2dc9a5912911c5d81364a884503ad097.png

Edited by knocker
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The  NH 500mb for midnight and the 0400 chart along with the 0300 WV image

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.bb5632929d02f470672261e2f5ab5373.pngeur_full.thumb.gif.08f58430bc43d21293cb159bdd479953.gifWV.thumb.JPG.82dc566d225eae8dae9fd81d0e048a4b.JPG

As can be seen storm Erik has arrived NW of Ireland and the rain from the warm front(s) is currently tracking NE across the country to be quickly followed by the band on the cold front with a more easterly component  This will clear most areas by 1800 leaving in it's wake frequent squally showers. The exception here is Scotland where the close proximity of the low and the wrap around occlusion results in the heavy rain lingering/

And about now the wind is starting to pick up and through the day will bring gales. perhaps severe in some areas, to many western and coastal regions. Best just left to the forecast charts to illustrate this.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.5dc8c13f9fd6b2c481d429cef3206309.gifg06.thumb.png.e49b9508555b88556afb4187c550fee8.pngg09.thumb.png.eb37a35689f0b21c55703280378f4162.pngg12.thumb.png.b3835d689a6cf65ffa5cf3d69cfce840.pngg15.thumb.png.c206dcff7fe76b4f29b2e1695731fe42.pngg18.thumb.png.52f7042270c69f417ed509d900cb88cb.png

r12.thumb.png.1838b07ec4c3bd06e085a8cf73592910.pngr15.thumb.png.5b96c1c3327a149cb832e8ac67b52858.pngr18.thumb.png.8c222aec8e9c095913cc7deaa4c60b53.png

The rain over Scotland will continue this evening and overnight and spread further afield to incorporate N. Ireland and the north of England. At the same time the very strong winds will continue to be a problem, particularly over north Wales and NW England

PPVG89.thumb.gif.abac646dcf54e1321d3d891271ab12b5.gifga01.thumb.png.ec5952e620ea5cee88d4ee6b766b9075.png1225705110_ga04.thumb.png.9b323f384798c0bf24d0261fd50dc57c.png

ra00.thumb.png.c9a10201828ea86fa7c6d39c3934a19b.pngra03.thumb.png.6a0eecef7a3d6b1bf480efb1b6da1399.pngra06.thumb.png.c664bbf72c834d0e73deb53e837d219b.png

With Erik moving slowly NE it will remain very windy through saturday, easing a tad later, thus squally showers and sunny intervals but another wave has formed on weakening occlusion and that may bring more persistent rain for a time.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.d8f49a3cddd48185ccfe5a40aefdee2e.gifwi.thumb.png.8c78c676c41518d93b96fb61b3961c27.pngrain15.thumb.png.a42d29a88ab81d58076b7c008657c94d.png

Overnight Saturday and through Sunday the wind will abate considerably as the low continues to track north east with sunshine and showers being the order of the day. But there are some complications as a wave has formed on the trailing front to the south west and nips NE to bring a band of rain to southern parts,

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.01c9b3f950a8566dc0095face6f4c4fc.gifPPVM89.thumb.gif.bf00d06c57de9cd969ae8727bad7d8e9.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_12.thumb.png.969a41ee19c79856f85ece2eb19fcb4f.png

By Monday the main trough is to the east with the subtropical high ridging over the UK so a much calmer and drier day after some widespread frost first up,

gfs_z500_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.ab995bb0cec11f2480191b6a64ea610a.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.75bf36f4be90eadc45c1081cd5d1b69a.gifgfs_t2min_c_uk2_14.thumb.png.fc2e90d3ae93bd7bf3e4324a29aea994.png

Edited by knocker
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To continue briefly with the gfs. A front forces it's way around the ridge on Tuesday to bring some rain to the north west but weakens rapidly there after. For the rest of the week, including the weekend, the high pressure realigns the east of the UK and thwarts the attempts of the energy flowing from the west to ingress across the country. But there is another interesting aspect of this. As the high adjacent to the UK bows slowly to the pressure the Bermuda high in the western Atlantic has amplified strongly resulting in some very cold air being advected south over Iceland and northern Scandinavia. Where will it end up 😉

gfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.e0527b08dcfdfba8c746ce41c5c5a73b.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_33.thumb.png.efff936a8173e1fcb6608e9bd8442cd3.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_41.thumb.png.ed04d43db8aad45e000c72dda82e1eec.png

Distribution of energy in the Atlantic sector - tricky

gfs_uv250_nh_40.thumb.png.3540645cd23fc2516790001edceadb70.png

Edited by knocker
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The ecm also has a weak front effecting the north west Tues/Weds and then embarks on an evolution not quite the same as the gfs. By midday Thursday it has consolidated the high cell to the south east but by the same time Saturday it has expanded back north west somewhat as energy swings south east around the top. And by the end of the run the cell is smack bang over the UK with the energy battering away to the W an NW and still nipping around the top

This does of course portend a few mornings with a widespread frost with the added bonus of some fog

t156.thumb.png.5e06ea2e5958ec044ea4b2249575f950.pngt204.thumb.png.ab0ed74ad4fe5d0471e3369dab4d2739.pngjet.thumb.png.1b8b8d74b9d7a1d6e7bd55abbe6b6a37.png

 

Edited by knocker
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The 0700 chart and no great surprise a lot of moderate rain around

07.thumb.gif.6ae736f02ec1b5047df3725c571113b4.gif

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 day 7 solid agreement via the 850’s of stalled Atlantic trough and responding nw Euro ridge (see dk purples) ..... thereafter the clusters will show an easterly push via a drop of heights working into Switzerland area and a contrary solution where the Atlantic tries to flatten the ridge somewhat 

E5DD1954-F18F-4A32-B13A-407435D8E436.thumb.jpeg.5814eae6915f9409c9f79d9b3ff0d530.jpeg

you can see the lower temps already headed west on that chart ... best to take this day 7 as fairly secure and wait till tomorrow to see where the favoured route is beyond 

Edited by bluearmy
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The EPS mean anomalies seemed to evolved with some amplification but very favorable over the last couple of days. I sense Spring is in the air which is very welcome as it has been very wearing spending weeks encircles by the forces of evil

8-13.thumb.png.d1b30e0c9c4e33ec2129028e75827871.png10-15.thumb.png.5223f1ea63be09f174fdfbf3a8a5fe4c.png

 

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Certainly looks like the period around Valentine's day could end up very mild in some places. The ECM has 850s of 6-8c widely on the 15th, with a southerly flow from North Africa. Quite a transient set-up as the day after the flow changes once more....but somewhere could see a 15c in that sort of set up. At this time of year the orientation of the high will decide whether it's just 8-10c or much milder as the ECM shows. Plenty of details to iron out in the days ahead....but nothing cold in the offing it would appear until at least the last week of the month.

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The progression of the ECM this week has been absolutely typical of how the model often behaves. 

Studying the last 4 morning's 00Z runs for 11th February:

ECM1-144.GIF?00 ECM1-120.GIF?00 ECM1-96.GIF?00 ECM1-72.GIF?08-12

The big picture is the same, but look at the low over the SE of England on the T144 chart. By T72, we now have a low over Germany. Also note heights to the west of Portugal have now reached Portugal. In other words, a tiny global shift to the east. 

In the upcoming pattern, with a block just to the east, there is such a fine line between a continental draw and an Atlantic draw - just a few hundred miles in positioning. Shifts like these may only have a small effect on where blocking ends up, but these small differences will make fairly decent differences in the expected temperatures by the end of next week.

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Northern England could see overnight gusts possibly touching 80mph in exposed area's.

viewimage.thumb.png.af8529398a2127f05c9b00ee07b7a657.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

In the upcoming pattern, with a block just to the east, there is such a fine line between a continental draw and an Atlantic draw - just a few hundred miles in positioning. Shifts like these may only have a small effect on where blocking ends up, but these small differences will make fairly decent differences in the expected temperatures by the end of next week.

Absolutely agree, And why the Meto have been so careful in wording there extended outlooks.

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The 0900 WV image showing the dry air over Ireland

geo.thumb.JPG.6d67f1b5e2180664c7deb2ff95e465e2.JPG

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The 06 gfs not dissimilar to the midnight but around t190 the distribution of the energy does alter the configuration of the cell a tad which is to be expected of course

gfs_z500_vort_natl_33.thumb.png.612cef155f66b9fc51dcf14338912aa0.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_39.thumb.png.c112c1b2fad31eae3e6ee37b6bae0bd7.png

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Clusters 00z - the ECM op is least amplified towards Scandi by T156 but it does have support 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020800_156.

Reasonable support for a move NW-wards of the ridge by D10 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020800_240.

Some runs getting the ridge to Greenland by D13 but others have it stuck closer to the UK

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020800_312.

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Morning all 🙂

Having stepped away from the models for nearly a week back in this morning to see where we are or aren't.

As others have said, a lot remains unresolved after this weekend's storm and the brief Arctic incursion. As the HP builds behind it, can it ridge fully into Scandinavia or does it get stuck somewhere between the Thames Estuary and the Baltic?

ECM 0Z OP gets there in the end but on the second attempt next weekend with the first HP heading ESE into western Russia so a settled week but fairly mild at first trending colder (it is still mid February so fog and frost obvious factors).

The GFS 00Z OP (and on GFS everything happens so quickly) gets the HP to Scandinavia but a full retrogression to Greenland is broken by a small LP in the SW approaches which breaks the link and we quickly return to stormy and mild conditions. The 06Z OP sends the LP SE into Iberia and it all ends extremely well for coldies as the forces of evil march in triumph across all parts of the British Isles especially the far SW.

GEM 00Z OP simply doesn't want to know - even though the PV has largely drained toward Siberia by T+240, a succession of vigorous LP engaged presumably by the cold air over Canada fire across the Atlantic so there's no chance of a ridge.

JMA 12Z yesterday was cold weather porn and we'll see if it follows up today.

NAVGEM 06Z (I've always liked NAVGEM, it probably verifies worst of the major models but there you go) ends next Friday with the HP over southern Scandinavia but the orientation and NH profile doesn't suggest retrogression as a likely option.

UKMO doesn't go out far enough to take a definitive view.

GFS 06Z Parallel hasn't quite finished but a cell of HP detaches from Greenland and drops SE over the British Isles so plenty of cold air in that you'd think but a likely sinker as well.

The 06Z Control is horrible for cold fans as the LP train doesn't stop and the PV is draining back into Canada from Siberia so we masters of evil had better hope that's an outlier.

Interesting to read some comments suggesting the downwelling is still going on and may not reach the troposphere until the 20th which would be extraordinary if correct. Further up, the PV is where you'd expect it to be in mid February in all honesty.

So there seem to be two very divergent options on the table starting from what happens with the initial push of HP after this weekend.

Option A: The HP fails to ridge north but remains around Germany or Denmark before sliding away east or south-east as the Atlantic energy flattens it and we return, after a brief mild and settled spell, to a mild and unsettled spell.

Option B1: The HP ridges into Scandinavia and the Atlantic slows enough to allow the trough to disrupt SE and retrogression to take place with a much colder airlow between east and north becoming established as pressure falls over Europe,

Option B2: The HP ridges into Scandinavia but there is too much energy in the jet to allow full retrogression to take place. Instead, the HP holds firm between the North Sea and Scandinavia and we settle into a settled but colder and cloudier flow from the east.

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Briefly as I've a lot going on - there's now very strong indications that tropical processes are going to finally break us free from the lingering Nina-like tendencies that have been restricting the ability to attain HLB, especially to our near-NW, so far this season (and to a greater extent than most or all professional/expert minds could reasonably have been expected to foresee).

Still need a few more days to become absolutely certain of this, but the signs have become very strong now. Well beyond what was seen early Dec or early Jan.

So pay note to those runs that show large blocking highs retrogressing from our E or NE to our N or NW during the 5-15 day range but don't take them very seriously yet; the atmosphere is about to experience a massive shake-up, with that sort of outcome being one of those that make the most sense, but not the only one. For example, I'm wary of the west-based NAO that GFS has toyed around with.

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Blimey I just popped into the other thread and got hit between the eyes by , "game on - early March", which has confused me somewhat, albeit that is easily done. I say this because having glanced at the EC46 update earlier I'd added some factor 35 to my next shopping list. thinking at last we are getting what we deserve.

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The high res. MODIS at midday. The cold front should through here shortly

modis.thumb.JPG.b2b50b664f6aa23a7ce2f15556b1ac3b.JPG

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40 minutes ago, knocker said:

Blimey I just popped into the other thread and got hit between the eyes by , "game on - early March", which has confused me somewhat, albeit that is easily done. I say this because having glanced at the EC46 update earlier I'd added some factor 35 to my next shopping list. thinking at last we are getting what we deserve.

but the clusters are invisible to us and if quite binary in nature, perhaps Exeter are plumping for that cluster which matches glosea ??

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A quick update for this evening and tonight

over the next 18 hours ERIK will drift slowly north east to be 959mb just north of Scotland by 0600. So after a brief easing of the winds late afternoon it will start picking up again this evening, particularly over northern England, the Midlands and Wales and then by early morning over Scotland

PPVA89.thumb.gif.e3bf4d5d258c628369636cea9bdcd6d5.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.c21ae34ba4897b130b8c81cd7b327d44.gifg21.thumb.png.0fe5ec540d07a81a8a225181dcfb717d.pngg00.thumb.png.2a472acfa402d591d8f288a7146c00c5.pngt03.thumb.png.2a05e159399e21423a3f686073f1ea16.pngg06.thumb.png.c69c898b7efb6c4456575ff6bb386d6c.pngg09.thumb.png.e77da059ab0537bea27f8321a58b5cf1.png

Regarding the rain, the band associated with cold front is not long through here and will continue east clearing by early evening. It will be follower by frequent squally showers and another more concentrated band during the evening. But the rain over Scotland will persist this evening and become far more extensive as the low and wrap around occlusion take closer order

r21.thumb.png.b273d2e47fb582deae77acbfb2a12c89.pngr00.thumb.png.a24f32eb456fcce55fb19144c2b302f5.pngr03.thumb.png.cfd5cc22ebdafe0c8ec4e020960239e4.pngr07.thumb.png.2fc6c3a6c8a35802e553f4c2a824a336.pngtotalprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.e8230e384c10d28c8daf6307f3d6dcda.png

 

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A glance at the MJO forecasts today show better agreement between the 2 ens suites of movement eastwards into phase 8

ensplume_small.thumb.gif.2e7387bac4801f273a2f7606fb80cd30.gif777754706_ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small(1).thumb.gif.df24d17480c87af9927445b40d65a828.gif

Decent amplitude in both so let's see if NWP start to trend towards the pattern showing in the climatic composites which is for +ve heights to our nw,similar to the 06z GFS operative run.

 

 

Edited by phil nw.
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A quick look at how the main models performed from their predictions 10 days ago compared with the actual situation today:

                   .            +240Z charts on the 29/01.                    Today's charts....

ECM        image.thumb.gif.cbcf39d4c6e4ec1b7105f9a84a1dd1a5.gif  image.thumb.gif.a3684d85a675b4232c84d97f28697dc4.gif

GFS         image.thumb.png.7f1a92abd7c32c6a027f1365a5c400b5.png  image.thumb.png.f2fb7e74e8fc28480ba44b7db1ebad33.png

GFS(p)  .image.thumb.png.71d390ff96586ade5bf8360d09fb1139.png  image.thumb.png.14c99ca4ffd224a10b0560cc206a3a9c.png

GEM.      image.thumb.png.ac3cc0b717d828b4258d56ed10fa7a52.png  image.thumb.png.28f05852bbb85056c755a1d0f41f0608.png

They all predicted a relatively deep Atlantic depression but none of them got the location right nor did they correctly predict the shape of surrounding features.  I tried to pick a winner but I can't make my mind up!.  Attempts to predict snow at this distance are never going to be more than 25% likely to verify, and we can only hope to get a very general idea of the overall picture from these operational runs alone.

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npsh500.png npsh500.png

 

Now this is strange - the GFS 12z has essentially ditched the P7 MJO response pattern entirely in favour of a faster P8 response. With the ridge having not left central Europe, the result will be akin to those spells in some summers where it turns hot and sunny only for the high to rapidly shift to the NW with much cooler weather taking over.

I feel that there ought to be more of a P7-P8 sequence instead, but this has been a weird winter for P7 MJO responses (i.e. they've tended to go AWOL) so who knows, maybe GFS is seeing something legit for a change 😄

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The gfs enhances the Aleutian ridge, from around T144, and thus drops a cold trough down the western half of North America and as an off shoot of the latter tracks east across central America it initiates amplification in the western Atlantic involving the Bermuda ridge and the mid Atlantic trough. (amplification and disruption of the former is one way of establishing a high cell over Greenland)  The combined pressure of the Bermuda ridge and the European high ejects the trough south whilst initiating some impressive WAA into western Europe.

gfs_z500a_nh_25.thumb.png.f49c13dd1261ad2da326f7049ff25654.pnggfs_z500a_nh_31.thumb.png.4278ffa1454be0f11d9e32e4aec7cce0.pnggfs_z500a_nh_35.thumb.png.6a668590266339c201ed3c8d68f423dc.png

So the key here is whether the ecm likes this sustaned ridging by the Bermuda high because everything after rather depends on it

Edited by knocker
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