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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

    Can we throw a ridge/wedge north... Nope another spawn of the devil system appears at the southern tip of Greenland. That area is really grinding my gears now.

    331B7A59-BACE-4B11-BA89-655AD9A655E8.png

    which is dramatically weaker than the 0z

    gfs-0-186.pnggfs-0-180.png?6

     

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Its a good run this, but too reliant on the track of that shortwave to have any confidence in it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea

    Another emotional high after all the disappointment at around 6am this morning. Let's ride this rollercoaster all the way up until the deep cold arrives !

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its a good run this, but too reliant on the track of that shortwave to have any confidence in it.

    Incredible run but yes there's so much than can go wrong.

    gfs-0-198.png?6

    Got a channel low and everything!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its a good run this, but too reliant on the track of that shortwave to have any confidence in it.

    Perhaps, but if you get something in that position with the general SE trend that should only help to promote the surface azores to ridge in.

    Really this is a good 06z GFS, much needed after a very messy ensemble suite from the GFS and abit of a dogs dinner of a ECM (though, once again its not terrible for everyone...)

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

    Incredible run but yes there's so much than can go wrong.

    gfs-0-198.png?6

    Got a channel low and everything!

    At least we aren't looking at day 10 anymore, this potential setup only a week away.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Imby post drive me mad? nice output?

    61393817-3E73-4AA6-BBD4-495289773600.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    The trend for the PV re-establishing in a big way over E.Canada is still there on the 06z GFS, but if we can get the cold far enough south before that happens we should be ok for a while yet. IF we weren't to get the Azores high amplified enough beforehand, then that spells big problems...bt no such issues from the 06z GFS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Subtle changes early on during the 06z leading to a slight shift west for the NW-SE axis and the flow is colder and snowier.

    We see the knock-on effect for the cold flow from that shift around D8:

    0zgfseu-1-210.thumb.png.b01d3c4c1b9e830da2874e285dadafb6.png06z>>>gfseu-1-204.thumb.png.06f818d61d82f52165c30f62a807e153.png

    Fine margins for an interesting prelude to post-D10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Interesting squeeze job going on with the upper low over Europe with upper ridging building over the Nw and NE, means the upper low is going to stuck where it is and with the PV trying to force its way eastwards, could see something of a scandi high type set-up establish this run later on.

    Hopefully this run gets abit more support from its ensembles, only 3/4 went with this type of solution on the 00z run.

    Night and day difference in potential from the 00z ECM and this 06z GFS for sure, even though on a global scale there isn't *that* much of a difference (main difference being the LP track is different, much shallower approach and there being a small area of upper low where the GFS has a building upper high.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Trying to hold hands chino ??

     

    edit it and bingo. They do?? imageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9e

    71424C89-FFCD-43BF-BAAA-0CFE7CFE6F7B.png

    71FC3A97-38F9-4797-AB4C-7D20EAD95A38.png

    B72535F0-871A-4F5B-BFB4-A51BF1A93C5B.png

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherton, Black Country
  • Location: Netherton, Black Country
    1 hour ago, danm said:

    True, but before last winter, we had 4 mild, almost snowless winters between 2013/14 and 2016/17. 

    Before that we had 4/5 colder, snowier winters that included January 2013, December 2010 and Jan 2010. 

    Appreciate that; however, the point I was trying to make that there is still time for some very cold weather as we approach February. Things can evolve quickly and at short notice. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Interesting. Very very interesting! And only Day 8!

    image.thumb.png.5e95e1adc2ecb69168ee49b9cf2a3cff.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
    1 minute ago, gpspete said:

    GFS for a week Friday if this happens lots of smiles

    D7AAE6C5-A1A6-4F60-8409-FA62B352E6CA.png

    That’s the 00z going by the 6z running out now you can shift that lot about 200 miles south ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Interesting. Very very interesting! And only Day 8!

    image.thumb.png.5e95e1adc2ecb69168ee49b9cf2a3cff.png

    Still time for things to change but importantly as Steve said, the original pulse of cold air is only 3/4 days away. I'm feeling confident.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

    I honestly believe to achieve what we want with our ridge we need to see heights at pretty much the same time over the pole.

    When i watch the gifs of the N.Hem its the pole all the time churning masses of cold into the Can.Pv.

    I think if we cant shut that tap off at the same time our ridge goes up then the repeating pattern will be tough to stop.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Well this is certainly turning into another boom run from the GFS. Because the upper high builds in strongly enough from both sides, the upper low can't go anywhere and the PV runs out of steam and splits a small upper low southwards towards the UK. This allows the flow to go more pure easterly as well as opening up another snow chance.

    Small macro differences have led to a huge weather difference between the models this morning...I wonder what type of set-up the ensembles/para will reflect today...

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Russian high not doing us much favours tbh, just stops the reinforcement of cold and progression of the trough eastwards over europe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I don't like using that P word but the Gfs 6z operational screams wintry P..P..P..Potential!?:cold-emoji:..Boom:bomb:

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    I don't like using that P word but the Gfs 6z operational screams wintry P..P..P..Potential!?:cold-emoji:..Boom:bomb:

    think the "boom" word should be banned too until charts get within about 72hr or under lol (oops I said "Boom" again and again lol)

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Well this is certainly turning into another boom run from the GFS. Because the upper high builds in strongly enough from both sides, the upper low can't go anywhere and the PV runs out of steam and splits a small upper low southwards towards the UK. This allows the flow to go more pure easterly as well as opening up another snow chance.

    Small macro differences have led to a huge weather difference between the models this morning...I wonder what type of set-up the ensembles/para will reflect today...

    When's the next GFS PARA out?

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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