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Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
    1 minute ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

    Kablamoo!!! 

    gfs-1-264.png?18

    Day 10 by any chance

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    As long as the majority cluster signals cold you are ok, they are tweaked to show different outcomes because of their low DEFINITION, 

    Well partly and the fact that the initial input data is tweaked for the ensemble members (control excluded).

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 minute ago, snowrye said:

    Day 10 by any chance

    Errr yer why , they always verify . ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    The GEFS mean is showing what is actually known in the trade as a powerhouse Northerly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Trom said:

    Well partly and the fact that the initial input data is tweaked for the ensemble members (control excluded).

    When i say OK, i don't mean its 100% going to verify of course, just that there is no panic at that point, i would rather have 35 showing cold, than 15 plus the op.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    There is considerable differences in the GFS ensembles even at 96hrs, indeed I'd say a slight majority now have a slight easterly influence  by 120hrs. Nothing too extreme but could be a snowy set-up for a time for the SE as that low sinks southwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    When this is the mean at 24h...

    gensnh-20-1-168.png

    I will give us a 50/50 chance of cold ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Very good ens all round at the moment.

    Seen a marked dip for Feb 1st enough times on them in recent days to make me think this is a trend, and could be a date to ring on the calendar.

    Maybe as the date winter proper got going??

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

    giphy.gif

    Just realised that if I’d have spent the same amount of hours doing overtime at work this winter that I’ve spent gawping at Siberian-sourced weather porn on the NW forum, I could have afforded a week in Lapland dressed in an elf costume throwing snowballs at Santa. 

    Edited by supernova
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    12z EC a mild outlier day 9 for London, makes sense looking at the milder SW flow then

    FFB662F2-E749-41FB-929E-A1E47B1B8281.thumb.gif.7d2f202505ba048354dab49f72ab80e5.gifC98FFE85-5D87-4BAE-817F-B0EF8AB05ED5.thumb.png.26bf2685b82a2cdf66e3ff20ff36093f.png

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    P6 out on its own by 1st feb. All others below -5°c and many look to be diving below -10°c by the 2nd

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Very decent mean at 204, looks much 'tighter' than the 12z

    18z image.thumb.png.04cd724dc0481a0d6c4910b0a0dce26a.png 12z image.thumb.png.fa80ad3de6fe7c4cdde7dfc9551d3148.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Bit of a pub special that! Cracking stuff and not the first time we’ve seen the gfs chuck that sort of run out in the low res over the past couple of days. It’s picking up on something for sure, let’s hope that’s the watered down version ????

    That reminded me of march 2018 but with staying power!! 

    How cold ???

    35F8A01C-1906-4EE1-B949-B1FA6A2E6BFD.thumb.png.887fab45dd7ff3ed8038306c24c47a92.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    When i say OK, i don't mean its 100% going to verify of course, just that there is no panic at that point, i would rather have 35 showing cold, than 15 plus the op.

    I agree about the no panic it's just that I'd rather see a cold op supported by the ensembles rather than an operational that's at variance with it's ensembles.  Hopefully, you are correct and the ECM op moves into alignment with the ensembles.  My unease is also compounded by the fact that it's the ECM op that is so out of kilter with its ensembles and GFS output.

    Another way of viewing it that the volatility caused by Trop/Strat interplay is having a major effect on the reliability of the model output and that higher definition compounds this uncertainty.  We did see all models struggle significantly with the quick trop impact last year.  This year's been a more normal SSW impact (i.e. slower) but we know it's impacting shortly. 

    Fingers crossed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Gfs op is the coldest member 3rd feb by a country mile. Outlier unfortunately 

    Edited by chionomaniac
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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l

    image.thumb.png.0277e1af24c8d45f82136d4534b47124.pngHmm something does look a tad out of place here, unfortunately. 

     

    Still though, some good signs here and there today. 

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    That GFS 18z run, despite it being extraordinary, ITS NOT AN OUTLIER for most of the run!

    Fantastic stuff that! Mean temperature beginning of February is below 1ºC all the way to the south coast!

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Gfs op is the coldest member 3rd feb by a country mile. Outlier unfortunately 

    Don’t be silly it’s the trend setter they will all follow in the next few days ?

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Gfs op is the coldest member 3rd feb by a country mile. Outlier unfortunately TRENDSETTER

    Tidied for you Chio...

    ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, CSC said:

    That GFS 18z run, despite it being extraordinary, ITS NOT AN OUTLIER for most of the run!

    Fantastic stuff that! Mean temperature beginning of February is below 1ºC all the way to the south coast!

    Yes although i is a big outlier for the part of the run where its a real stonker!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    The 18z Op had -15c uppers over us, I'm not surprised it's a huge outlier!

    That's one hell of a cross polar flow on the gfsp, the Strat split finally splitting the Trop Vortex too!

    CF.thumb.png.cd108d46bbb97f08431803bb8adafb29.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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