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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Just now, Cuban Zebra said:

I promised myself I wouldn’t get sucked in to this again... what the hell😱👌

A7688CC0-25C0-4960-8FDC-385C132D0C16.png

One of these days it will materialise...... Hopefully.... I would love it...but unless it is is 48+ i will not be happy... A long terms watcher and scpetic of long range synoptics.... but is it not nicer to be watching such synoptics rather than raging westerlies.

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8 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Uppers are marginal

gfs-1-264.thumb.png.d9fe48974ae77e8c7e1e06b2fa2a687b.png

🤔😍

That’s genuinely hilarious 😂 Brilliant stuff. 

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2 hours ago, BlackburnChris said:

Heavy Snow and a pint here in Darwen .

15481893844951817911906.jpg

Have you been in there all day with the GFS 18z run? 

I think it’s been doing cheeky shots of whisky while you were taking pictures of the snow...

Now this is a STONKER!!!! 

 

9EE3C124-3A14-4FF3-BD60-1C50B025D81A.png

Edited by Mr Frost
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1 minute ago, snowbob said:

the big dogs are posting now and the thread is buzzing

 

With Blue Army, Chiono, Catacol, Nick Sussex, Kold Weather et al posting, we only need Steve Murr to pop in and it'd be like Avengers Assemble.

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Mannnn we were so close to getting the -20 850s line in the high sunk just at the wrong time . But we will take that with open arms 😋

Ah well, just have to cope with the marginality that is -15C won't we!! 🙂

Needless to say the 2nd is VERY cold, maxes on that run were -2/3C. Indeed most days are barely above 0C, several don't even make that.

Edited by kold weather
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6 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

I promised myself I wouldn’t get sucked in to this again... what the hell😱👌

A7688CC0-25C0-4960-8FDC-385C132D0C16.png


Let's go again!

 

giphy (2).gif

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🗣️ I've just heard we're going back in.

Last time they told us it would be easy, that there would be little opposition to the advance West, but they had forces waiting for us.

We took casualties, lost some good people, but now we are ready and their forces depleted.

Strap in boys and girls, it s time for some payback. 🐻

 

 

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Already an improvement on the GEFS 18z with stronger ridges at 60.

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In the almost unlikely chance the GFS 18z was to pull off, no one could complain about lack of snow for the following 10 winters.

Amazing stuff. Simply amazing.

Classic pub run, it really has been at the pub!

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Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Let’s get some cross model agreement first before getting too excited tomorrow morning hopefully with ECM!

As much as I love too to get hyped over a Easterly 2.0 that actually happens but before it happens we need to get cross model agreement/trend towards this 

I don't think we would want a huge disappointment again won't we 

 

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Right, wonderful run, lets see what the GFS ensembles produce and the para GFS, would be nice to get them to also go a similar way, even if not as extreme.

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3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

As much as I love too to get hyped over a Easterly 2.0 that actually happens but before it happens we need to get cross model agreement/trend towards this 

I don't think we would want a huge disappointment again won't we 

 

It’s the same every year

the thrill is in the chase to be honest

Edited by snowbob
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31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Possibly, but i don't overly get concerned with OP runs when they are big outliers, as long as the GEFS have reasonable support for the EPS in the 144-240 range, i will be happy.

I don't think you can ignore operating runs given they are high definition compared to the ensembles and controls low definition.

The question is, especially on the ECM, what is the operational picking up on that the lower definition control isn't that causes the direction to be so different. 

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It’s not often you get runs showing such brutal cold over the uk . I know we do get cold runs in FI all the time but not like that 18z run . It’s a sign , something STONKING @feb1991blizzard  is around the corner 👍😁😁😁

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7 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:


Let's go again!

 

giphy (2).gif

Hopefully the rollercoasters more exciting than someone found it last time...

giphy.gif

Nice to have a bit of excitement again after missing out on any today. 

Edited by matt111
Fixed gif
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3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

🗣️ I've just heard we're going back in.

Last time they told us it would be easy, that there would be little opposition to the advance West, but they had forces waiting for us.

We took casualties, lost some good people, but now we are ready and their forces depleted.

Strap in boys and girls, it s time for some payback. 🐻

 

 

straight out of Hollywood that!...too late for the oscars this year, just. Let's terminate the Atlantic!

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2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

It’s the same every year

tbe thrill is in the chase to be honest

Yup. Far nicer to see the possibility of something wintry and awesome than endless charts of mild. I think the signs are were about to hit the jackpot from that GFS but I fully understand the skepticism of posters after last weeks dissapointment.

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510 dam line anim_shq5.thumb.gif.a2d9d0d41d2c781f066d9a8b9f7c705f.gif  and just for fun a comparison with last years beast from the east anim_zei0.thumb.gif.93ceb70ecee08866331587e14704d711.gif archives-2018-2-28-12-2.thumb.png.dd92bfec312782fa5d0f7b6d9024b222.png Hard to remain calm when charts like these start appearing but lets wait and see where we head over the next few days, I did say that I thought the BOOM charts would increase as we headed toward the last week of Jan... 

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Well the GFSP and Control are almost identical to the pub run at 102

GFSP image.thumb.png.3eb829d2b5d062a295196a5bb6175bec.png Control image.thumb.png.64dba258c49d77d1a332ae83a1fc687d.png GFS image.thumb.png.2282a36a38d0a59e93281a778722edca.png

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3 minutes ago, Trom said:

I don't think you can ignore operating runs given they are high definition compared to the ensembles and controls low definition.

The question is, especially on the ECM, what is the operational picking up on that the lower definition control isn't that causes the direction to be so different. 

As long as the majority cluster signals cold you are ok, they are tweaked to show different outcomes because of their low DEFINITION, 

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9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

With Blue Army, Chiono, Catacol, Nick Sussex, Kold Weather et al posting, we only need Steve Murr to pop in and it'd be like Avengers Assemble.

Or the Anthill Mob

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2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well the GFSP and Control are almost identical to the pub run at 102

GFSP image.thumb.png.3eb829d2b5d062a295196a5bb6175bec.png Control image.thumb.png.64dba258c49d77d1a332ae83a1fc687d.png GFS image.thumb.png.2282a36a38d0a59e93281a778722edca.png

Finally the Para actually doing something interesting... 

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