Cold hunt - models and chat

[Kirkcaldy Weather 13,673]

those 850hPa temps    

[mountain shadow 9,837]

9 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Id have thought that anyone with enough interest in weather to be browsing this forum full of lunatics would be more than aware by now that the BBC don't know their a*se from their elbow 

 

The BBC produce their forecasts from data provided by a professional meteorological company with access to data far in excess of the scraps we feed off.

[bluearmy 44,600]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Yes. Obviously not hallucinating as much as @bluearmy thought!

Where is the Siberian high?

looking at the clusters, I reckon could be as much as 50/50 on the op being not far away .......hopefully we fall the right side if it pans out like that .....

[kold weather 12,136]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

needs no comment

Great run.

Could be even more interesting down the line again, maybe an attack from the NW followed by another pressure rise towards Greenland a the PV lobe moves up and out.

[kold weather 12,136]

FWIW those 850hpa temps are pretty comparable to the Feb/Mar 18 cold. I'd suspect that is at the extreme end of what is possible in this pattern, certainly maxing out what we have on this run for sure!

[Johnp 3,007]

Wow

[ICE COLD 11,585]

OMG ? ?????

[Stormeh 5,799]

Uppers are marginal

??

[IDO 8,473]

Just now, kold weather said:

FWIW those 850hpa temps are pretty comparable to the Feb/Mar 18 cold. I'd suspect that is at the extreme end of what is possible in this pattern, certainly maxing out what we have on this run for sure!

Your kidding!

[Ice Day 7,151]

252, 264 and 276.  High is sinking now, but a terrific run overall.

  

  

[mulzy 4,130]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

OMG ??????

I knew this chart was coming from you!! Love it!!!

[CSC 340]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

The BBC produce their forecasts from data provided by a professional meteorological company with access to data far in excess of the scraps we feed off.

It amazes me that even with the 'scraps' , the amateur forecaster on this forum produce more accurate forecasts than the BBC manage most of the time...

With all their 'progressional' data, they said that for most of the country it will be entirely dry at first for today.. then they changed it to 'rain showers, with snow at high ground'. This is despite many in the forum with the idea that it was within the realms of possibility of snow falling to lower levels. 

I praise many great weather commentators in this forum who interpret the weather in my opinion, much better than the BBC are doing right now.

[Met4Cast 12,211]

Oh boy.. here we go again! That is one damn impressive Easterly!

 

[kold weather 12,136]

ICE DAY, that high shouldn't be going any further south than it is for a little while afterwards as the forcing to move it any further is still quite far west.

[ICE COLD 11,585]

Don’t wanna sound like a brat but the even lower uppers just missed us ???

[NeilN 440]

That if it comes off will be c-c-c-c-cold!

[Cuban Zebra 178]

I promised myself I wouldn’t get sucked in to this again... what the hell??

[kold weather 12,136]

AO going quite positive again and PV reforming quite rapidly near Greenland again by 348hrs. That is no certainty and its quite possible that we get another reload of the pattern instead of the flattening out upstream.

Still no complaints from me, that's a cracking run!

[Met4Cast 12,211]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Small steps forward...that’s what we want. If we wake up to -300c easterlies from Hawaii.....ignore the runs

 

BFTP 

Hey 18z.. 

[snowbob 2,062]

Now if that is not a sign of change I don’t know what is

maybe the boom charts will start to drown out the non meteorological posts that add sod all to this forumn

the big dogs are posting now and the thread is buzzing

[ICE COLD 11,585]

Mannnn we were so close to getting the -20 850s line in the high sunk just at the wrong time . But we will take that with open arms ?

[prolongedSnowLover 1,577]

Hope we get a ‘proper’ beast from the east soon that delivers for much of the country!!

 

[Bazray 622]

2 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

I promised myself I wouldn’t get sucked in to this again... what the hell??

Yea same was just thinking I’ll have an early night, then those charts pop up, bloody weather ?

[Quicksilver1989 6,062]

10 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

those 850hPa temps    

And all because of subtle change within the first 120 hours. The high over Siberia sends the cold to Scandi early on.... and then it is just waiting in the wings when we get a low sinking over the continent.

[Singularity 14,799]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Which model ???.

GFS, maybe others... it was a Chris Fawkes comment on a tweet somewhere, relayed via a colleague.

Seems models just can’t wait to try out some responses too.