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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    9 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

    Id have thought that anyone with enough interest in weather to be browsing this forum full of lunatics would be more than aware by now that the BBC don't know their a*se from their elbow 

     

    The BBC produce their forecasts from data provided by a professional meteorological company with access to data far in excess of the scraps we feed off.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Yes. Obviously not hallucinating as much as @bluearmy thought!

    Where is the Siberian high?

    looking at the clusters, I reckon could be as much as 50/50 on the op being not far away .......hopefully we fall the right side if it pans out like that .....

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

    BCCF4C81-7A82-4F08-8035-A97C597C4BB6.thumb.jpeg.7bf561c60a71322b67cd9d3d43dd4ebd.jpeg

    needs no comment

    Great run.

    Could be even more interesting down the line again, maybe an attack from the NW followed by another pressure rise towards Greenland a the PV lobe moves up and out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    FWIW those 850hpa temps are pretty comparable to the Feb/Mar 18 cold. I'd suspect that is at the extreme end of what is possible in this pattern, certainly maxing out what we have on this run for sure!

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    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    Uppers are marginal

    gfs-1-264.thumb.png.d9fe48974ae77e8c7e1e06b2fa2a687b.png

    ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    Just now, kold weather said:

    FWIW those 850hpa temps are pretty comparable to the Feb/Mar 18 cold. I'd suspect that is at the extreme end of what is possible in this pattern, certainly maxing out what we have on this run for sure!

    Your kidding!

    gfseu-1-312.thumb.png.3f7742edecec1444a043809564e52fca.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    252, 264 and 276.  High is sinking now, but a terrific run overall.

    image.thumb.png.e7c90912b265d6b66ca627f20b25586b.png image.thumb.png.1b1e0396ce390eedc835f8cf0795ab50.png image.thumb.png.023c5ef2c99bcefaf24f518c077ad93d.png

    image.thumb.png.177d3f95d909b52c168b904715ba15e4.png image.thumb.png.c626c661481de3996dffe4bb5ab5d9f8.png image.thumb.png.fe81f2552ff47d04556858283e4e4787.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    Just now, ICE COLD said:

    OMG ??????

    9A2916FF-3089-4933-BD62-40716BD47F13.png

    I knew this chart was coming from you!! Love it!!!

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    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    The BBC produce their forecasts from data provided by a professional meteorological company with access to data far in excess of the scraps we feed off.

    It amazes me that even with the 'scraps' , the amateur forecaster on this forum produce more accurate forecasts than the BBC manage most of the time...

    With all their 'progressional' data, they said that for most of the country it will be entirely dry at first for today.. then they changed it to 'rain showers, with snow at high ground'. This is despite many in the forum with the idea that it was within the realms of possibility of snow falling to lower levels. 

    I praise many great weather commentators in this forum who interpret the weather in my opinion, much better than the BBC are doing right now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Oh boy.. here we go again! That is one damn impressive Easterly!

    GFS.thumb.png.57dc4e026dd98a8c94eda4975e70206b.pngCOLD.thumb.png.a01a428306326bfc0b9e8c90a779b05e.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Don’t wanna sound like a brat but the even lower uppers just missed us ???

    A4F5C02B-DDF8-4AA3-B644-43234325D71A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    AO going quite positive again and PV reforming quite rapidly near Greenland again by 348hrs. That is no certainty and its quite possible that we get another reload of the pattern instead of the flattening out upstream.

    Still no complaints from me, that's a cracking run!

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Small steps forward...that’s what we want. If we wake up to -300c easterlies from Hawaii.....ignore the runs

     

    BFTP 

    Hey 18z.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    Now if that is not a sign of change I don’t know what is

    maybe the boom charts will start to drown out the non meteorological posts that add sod all to this forumn

    the big dogs are posting now and the thread is buzzing

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Mannnn we were so close to getting the -20 850s line in the high sunk just at the wrong time . But we will take that with open arms ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    2 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

    I promised myself I wouldn’t get sucked in to this again... what the hell??

    A7688CC0-25C0-4960-8FDC-385C132D0C16.png

    Yea same was just thinking I’ll have an early night, then those charts pop up, bloody weather ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    10 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    those 850hPa temps gfs-1-252.thumb.png.df31800f7ea5c24d6ac8c118ab3aba99.png  tenor.gif?itemid=7320963 giphy.gif

    And all because of subtle change within the first 120 hours. The high over Siberia sends the cold to Scandi early on.... and then it is just waiting in the wings when we get a low sinking over the continent.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    Which model ???.

    GFS, maybe others... it was a Chris Fawkes comment on a tweet somewhere, relayed via a colleague.

    Seems models just can’t wait to try out some responses too.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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