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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Alot of talk about day 10 but we have cold and some snow today. Cold tomorrow. Milder for a time before colder air arriving from day 5. 

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This looks interesting. Would the strat boffins like to comment??? 

2738BC6D-6316-4F2B-9DC9-E5F97E374836.png

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GFS looks decent upto day 10, and indeed even the progression after that looks reasonable, but I'm not convinced we are going to get a resurgent PV over Greenland like that 06z wants later in the run , aka +ve AO/NAO pattern deep in the run which destroys our chances of sustained cold. Very odd presentation.

 

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This looks interesting. Would the strat boffins like to comment??? 

2738BC6D-6316-4F2B-9DC9-E5F97E374836.png

I'm no expert but it looks like its had its readybrek

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Just now, Had Worse said:

I'm no expert but it looks like its had its readybrek

Was more thinking of the warming’s on each side of it . Is that a 2 wave attack ?? 

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This looks interesting. Would the strat boffins like to comment??? 

2738BC6D-6316-4F2B-9DC9-E5F97E374836.png

Can't be another warming starting surely. Mind you it's around the outside, not sure it means much. Will probably help keep the cold central.

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Was more thinking of the warming’s on each side of it . Is that a 2 wave attack ?? 

Id have to throw it in the other thread.  You could be right though.

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3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

A change is occurring!

Looks like my gut instincts might be correct. What led me to this was a UKMO yesterday and how it handled the low coming up against the block to the NE and to me it appeared unrealistic. What we are seeing is the low being sheared SE with the remnants moving N. This is in contrast to previous modelling of the low simply moving NE i.e UKMO past few runs. This is typical modelling when low pressure comes up against a block to the NE and as the time frame comes closer the pattern backs W and lows disrupt SE.

The ramifications of this is it means we remain cold and when the next low moves SE, we have a colder pool of air to tap into from the NE due to the high pressure being further W. Also due to the timeframe further W movements from the models is possible.

Yes fair play to the UKMO ikt did clock that change to the 144hrs, and now we are around 120hrs out the models are starting to shift towards the UKMO.

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3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

A change is occurring!

Looks like my gut instincts might be correct. What led me to this was a UKMO yesterday and how it handled the low coming up against the block to the NE and to me it appeared unrealistic. What we are seeing is the low being sheared SE with the remnants moving N. This is in contrast to previous modelling of the low simply moving NE i.e UKMO past few runs. This is typical modelling when low pressure comes up against a block to the NE and as the time frame comes closer the pattern backs W and lows disrupt SE.

The ramifications of this is it means we remain cold and when the next low moves SE, we have a colder pool of air to tap into from the NE due to the high pressure being further W. Also due to the timeframe further W movements from the models is possible.

Do you mean we may remain cold this time, or is this the next low.

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49 minutes ago, stewfox said:

I can't believe/ fathom how quite the model thread has become. Its like the party has just stopped. We have 'snow potential' and its still January. Ok no beast from the east but even so...

The runs this morning look great, but it's only natural for people to be annoyed when something that looked nailed on disappear to be a bit more sceptical about the next thing that looks nailed on, I'm sure many of us doing exactly what I'm doing which is watching these with interest but with a sense of "wait and see". There's clearly a much higher level of uncertainty in the model runs as we saw at the weekend, so it's harder to go "this is what's coming" and get excited about when we've all just been dealt a very real reminder that there's still time for a downgrade.

 

The milder interlude certainly looks a bit less mild this morning, which is a promising sign. Beyond that I'm finding it difficult to trust the models at the minute.

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18 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This looks interesting. Would the strat boffins like to comment??? 

2738BC6D-6316-4F2B-9DC9-E5F97E374836.png

Slight warming's will be evident now throughout the rest of winter until we decend onto the final warming.. 

Nothing exciting as of yet. 

Also bare in mind that you wouldn't want another split or significant warming unless you want a cold spring.

As far as the strat is concerned it can go along its merry way now until the final warming. Its the weather at the ground we should be now concentrating on. 

Edited by ALL ABOARD

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Some BIG 12z's coming along later today... I think we'll all be celebrating by 8PMish

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4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Some BIG 12z's coming along later today... I think we'll all be celebrating by 8PMish

Hopefully folk will be a bit more cautious this time and wait until the beast from the east style charts many crave get below t96 as was proved last week when mass disappointment erupted when it all downgraded.

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Latest ARPEGE much snowier for the next two days:

arpegeuk-45-34-0.png?22-11

Covering by tomorrow morning for many on EURO4

19012306_2206.gif

Looks like those ECM ensembles were right all along in signalling 22-24th Jan as being cold enough for snow for many.

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Hopefully folk will be a bit more cautious this time and wait until the beast from the east style charts many crave get below t96 as was proved last week when mass disappointment erupted when it all downgraded.

Haha agreed! Although if the next few runs look even better I may do some dancing a bit later on!

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8 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Some BIG 12z's coming along later today... I think we'll all be celebrating by 8PMish

I will hold you to that! If not then its on you! 😂 only joking, but i hope your right. 🤞😊

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2 minutes ago, snow*please said:

I will hold you to that! If not then its on you! 😂 only joking, but i hope your right. 🤞😊

If I'm wrong then I'll be in Mexico before it even gets traced back to me, don't you worry😉

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A better GFS 06 hrs run upto day ten with  lower heights maintained over central and eastern Europe .

What we essentially want is no way for any milder Med air to be pulled nw into the circulation.

You can see the difference in 850 s on this run compared to the earlier 00 hrs . Lower heights to the se would correlate with a colder source of air for the UK if it picks up an easterly or ne flow .

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ICON (I know) has a shallow low pressure feature running Southwards in the North-Sea on Saturday

IOCN.thumb.jpg.78c8c6a4717ac68d95a59f9602c11348.jpg

Could see a band of rain/sleet/snow sinking Southwards across the country. We might not be in a period of sustained bitter cold but there certainly isn't going to be a lack of snow possibilities in the next week or two

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