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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

No one is saying winters over it’s just everyone was exspecting a wintry spell in January and it didn’t happen . It’s been jan since nov/dec everything pointing to jan . It will be early jan , nope it will be mid jan ,nope last third of jan , nope end of jan and guess what now into February. So you understand why people are frustrated. Now that we are looking into feb the clock starts to tick because the further you go into feb the better the conditions have to be ie higher 850s etc etc to get proper wintry conditions . I Know winters not over and most will probably see snow before February is finished but would of been better in mid winter and all the talk / forecasts about a good winter has just led to people being very frustrated. 🙂

True to a degree (mind the pun). I am frustrated too. Snow is my favourite type of weather and I am disappointed not to see any wintry weather so far, especially given that many was expecting it over and over again for it to fail to deliver. 

You are a great weather commentator and I do appreciate yours and everyone's input on this fantastic weather forum.

Re iterating my point, I have seen a few posts suggesting we will no longer get winter weather this winter or that 'if this doesn't happen, then its over' and this was my point. People should remain optimistic until the very end 🙂

Lastly, we are not looking into early February necessarily for snow. As you may know the weather models struggle to predict 5 days ahead so we could still see snow next weekend for all we know!

Keep hoping i'd say 😃

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3 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

And on Saturday February 16th when the Thames froze over and defied all odds in Central London's urban heat island and frost fairs returned..!

Dublin was cut off until the 28th as 25 - 40 cm was falling every 2 days

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2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

I’m looking forward to an easterly at the end of April 🙂

Would not surprise me in the slightest the U.K just seems to avoid anything cold

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Just now, Jake Strickland said:

Would not surprise me in the slightest the U.K just seems to avoid anything cold

Yep anything significant just circulates around us Unfortunately, it’s been the case for years, bfte was exceptional last winter but apart from that, nothing of that much interest since 2013

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1 minute ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Yep anything significant just circulates around us Unfortunately, it’s been the case for years, bfte was exceptional last winter but apart from that, nothing of that much interest since 2013

Very true well living Crosby it's like living in Spain all year round 😂

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i posted this in the other thread as well.

i dont want to take the thread off course of will it wont it in 10 days time, but is the rain band moving in quicker that first thought?? 

im in somerset, the last forecast i saw this morning had it clearing in the early hours then showers from late morning onwards, looking at it now if it keeps going at its present speed it will clear here in a couple of hours, showers already packing in the Ireland as i type. 

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9 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

And on Saturday February 16th when the Thames froze over and defied all odds in Central London's urban heat island and frost fairs returned..!

A question to a time-traveller: does one have two TARDISes or two TARDISi?:cold:

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33 minutes ago, booferking said:

Well if you think the charts below represent height anomaly for the EC46 for the period 21st-27th i'm Kris Kringle.

 

500za_week3_bg.png.c1b8f1f36f19d04c1f1023c97625f30f.png.fe4877e8b15093dda8759dcb0b544e91.png.b590cf88ee5aedda853465e8a323987e.png

 

Its a decent stab at the wave pattern but it’s skewed where we wouldn’t want it to be!

AD044581-FDED-4EC0-B955-B5D56ACDC636.thumb.jpeg.1db42ce5a84527a770f1bc04fcbed9bc.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, Jake Strickland said:

Would not surprise me in the slightest the U.K just seems to avoid anything cold

At least by then there’s more chance it’d be a warm easterly 👌🏻

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Hungarian MetO site should update soon for EC monthly snapshot. It’s usually out by now 🤨

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8 minutes ago, fromey said:

i posted this in the other thread as well.

i dont want to take the thread off course of will it wont it in 10 days time, but is the rain band moving in quicker that first thought?? 

im in somerset, the last forecast i saw this morning had it clearing in the early hours then showers from late morning onwards, looking at it now if it keeps going at its present speed it will clear here in a couple of hours, showers already packing in the Ireland as i type. 

No, it's about where it was modelled to be. 

2000
20.png

2100
21.png

Radar @ 2030

radar2030.jpg

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17 minutes ago, MKN said:

Alot of differing views tonight. Looking at the current output across all major models I think the form horse over the next two weeks will be short but potentially snowy snaps. (12-36hours) followed by a warm up and then a repeat. At the same time as long as central Europe remains under the influence of low pressure the opportunity for an easterly to develope is always there. 

I think a lot of the differing views are based on where people live,

EG those in the north and west are broadly ok with the set-up as it gives them repeated snow attempts. Those in the south and to a degree east are not too keen as this set-up offers little, especially compared to the snowy easterly they were seeing just a few short days ago!

The truth is probably inbetween, but sometimes its hard to not let your biases seek in.

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52 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think we may have to now consider the possibility that the SSW didn't go for us.  That's not to discount the science in any way, it doesn't guarantee cold for UK, sometimes you roll the dice and they come up snake eyes.  It happens.  Reason for despondency the zonal wind plot on ECM at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.39aa76dc4b3bbd27269b24c9f9a70858.jpg

The blue easterly flows seem to be disappearing, one run obviously, but it looks like the SSW is running out of petrol before it has delivered anything.  Which is a surprise to me because it looked like a significant one.  

MJO assistance still possible early Feb, if not, the writing is on the wall now.

Huh!?! ...Phil NW showed me a chart of the down welling yesterday that showed it continues and peaks around 1st February but this shows nothing of the sort...(and replied saying so) confused.com

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9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The general theme is almost identical with zero heights to our  North. The only place they vary is on timing of cold zonal pressure systems.

I coudn`t agree with you more JS , its the timing , depth of pressure and placement that go on to make big differences later on. i could have posted all the charts for t144 for example and the differences are even much more diverse. i was merely illustrating that T120 is just about where FI begins. 

Cold Zonal is very much on the cards in one shape or form up to and probably beyond the weekend.. after that who knows if and where we see pressure rise when the downwelling crashes the party..

 

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14 minutes ago, fromey said:

i posted this in the other thread as well.

i dont want to take the thread off course of will it wont it in 10 days time, but is the rain band moving in quicker that first thought?? 

im in somerset, the last forecast i saw this morning had it clearing in the early hours then showers from late morning onwards, looking at it now if it keeps going at its present speed it will clear here in a couple of hours, showers already packing in the Ireland as i type. 

Yes its looking about 3 hours ahead of schedule, this often happens, showers tomorrow will be moving inland early too I would think.

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8 minutes ago, Paul said:

No, it's about where it was modelled to be. 

2000
20.png

2100
21.png

Radar @ 2030

radar2030.jpg

Ahh right, I thought it was running early too. Thanks.

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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes its looking about 3 hours ahead of schedule, this often happens, showers tomorrow will be moving inland early too I would think.

I often find aswell that it never lasts as long as forecast for some reason. I'm glad its ahead of schedule so hopefully we can get in some snow in the early morning while it's still cold enough. 

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With all the despondency about the downgraded events of this winter period (and references to them as being what we in the UK have come to expect) I have a question: what is the shortest timeframe for a turnaround to an upgrade the UK has experienced?

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11 hours ago, snowbob said:

There is plenty of time left

remember the great 2009 Thames streamer well that was feb 2nd I believe

would that be showing up yet 

I doubt it

 

Even last year's Easterly didn't get going until late Feb/early March.

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Just looks like a mix of sleet or rain anywhere from the North of England to the South coast.

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27 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A question to a time-traveller: does one have two TARDISes or two TARDISi?:cold:

I travel in the TURDIS coz everyway I go the weather is Poop

Edited by Paul
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13 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

With all the despondency about the downgraded events of this winter period (and references to them as being what we in the UK have come to expect) I have a question: what is the shortest timeframe for a turnaround to an upgrade the UK has experienced?

I can remember the models showing solid snow events in 24/48 hours, and then completely going off track to be a non-event.

When it comes to snow, nowcasting (look out the window!), is sometimes more accurate than forecasts or model watching, when it looks marginal.

Edited by 'ColdIsBest'
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Just now, Disco_Stu said:

How many more times do we have hear the phrase 'background signals'?

😴

Well the tail doesn’t wag the dog.... 

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