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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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even in an average winter ,you would expect one decent snowfall.Unless things change fairly quickly this winter is going to end up  a complete shambles and hopefully  the end of long range seasonal forecasting ,as it proven time and time again ,their are too many variables in the U.K. climate to forecast weeks,months ahead.

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GFS and ECM more or less agree up to T240.

At present no real cold on offer, and the Atlantic seems fired up, to give us Low after Low, and no sign of any blocking.

A chance of some marginal and brief snow events

GEFS ensembles long term outlook heading for milder temperatures, but that can of course change.

image.png

Edited by 'ColdIsBest'

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17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep. I think all those of a cold persuasion should receive a medal for incredible patience this winter. It's been tortuous. 

This winter so far could have been so much worse from an interest point of view if there had been zero potential for cold. Imagine if the charts and backgrounds had not shown any glimmers at all, now that would have been tortuous. Better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all as the saying goes and even tho they've not come to anything yet, some of the charts have been lovely.

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February will be the coldest in a generation. 

That statement means I don’t have to hang on every run till at least the 25th ;) 

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5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

even in an average winter ,you would expect one decent snowfall.Unless things change fairly quickly this winter is going to end up  a complete shambles and hopefully  the end of long range seasonal forecasting ,as it proven time and time again ,their are too many variables in the U.K. climate to forecast weeks,months ahead.

and on the back of such promising background signals

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13 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Which is why we should calm down (I'm talking to you  Feb!) when it's run later this evening goes belly up. Why believe it now when it's been garbage for two months?

Maybe because the period it’s always shown northern blocking from is actually the 28th of January, which is still a week away. Not earlier like people are just making up. Makes me wonder if some people can actually read charts at all.

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1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

If the SSW hasn’t affected our weather, why are we see a prolonged spell of below average temperatures and systems moving north west to south east instead of the usual west to east?

Just because we’re not seeing a big freeze, doesn’t mean there has been no effect.

True in a way but think what was meant was the average joe is not currently stepping  outside and shouting out "Stone me its brass monkeys - must be to do with this stratosphere thingy  ! ".

Currently just bog standard UK winter weather

Edited by Paul

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3 minutes ago, cobbett said:

True in a way but think what was meant was the average joe is not currently stepping  outside and shouting out "Stone me its brass monkeys - must be to do with this Twatosphere thingy  ! ".

Currently just bog standard UK winter weather

So it’s basically it’s the fault of the SSW and experts in that area that people are ignorant.

Edited by MattStoke

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1 minute ago, StormyWeather28 said:

Careful now. Criticise background signals here in any way and you'll be accused of being an ignorant grunt who is thick and doesn't understand anything. 

Was there any need for that? there is sarcasm then there are ignorant grunts.

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13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Maybe because the period it’s always shown northern blocking from is actually the 28th of January, which is still a week away. Not earlier like people are just making up. Makes me wonder if some people can actually read charts at all.

This is what it showed on the 7th Jan below for the 21st-27th Jan then the 28th-4th Feb..

Atlantic and Greenland right throw the Arctic looked pretty blocked to me..

500za_week3_bg.png.c1b8f1f36f19d04c1f1023c97625f30f.png.fe4877e8b15093dda8759dcb0b544e91.png

500za_week4_bg.png.6212c8df693347a574bd5f2dfdd774c5.png.f4cdd65ca509f04108af051f4eea84e5.png

image.png.3ae69a119d836b2d4b02bb057ac95bef.png

image.png.56d1bef45eed02a144ae1eca4709a88e.png

3C37423E-15FD-4A04-BC76-34D1E1F9904C.jpeg.abde83485a4d9eafd09f55071d7a3dbc.jpeg

929C3F0C-0E78-487E-A812-747130054566.jpeg.c57595fe2c128b9f25a0b2a157647e1e.jpeg

Edited by booferking

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28 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well what an awful ecm that was. This winter really is turning into a shocker. All the positive we seem to have had and looks like heading for a total bust. Ec46 has been garbage this winter. First it was a pattern change after Christmas. Then the big change was around the 10th January. If I’d got a pound for a 10 day chart this winter I’d be a very rich man. Just feels this winter just isn’t going to happen for the majority of the U.K. at least looks like some helpful rain in next few weeks if ecm verifies. 😡

First it was a pattern change after Christmas.   nope .......it didn’t show that

Then the big change was around the 10th January.   Nope, it didn’t show that either (apart from two runs around the 10th dec) 

if we don’t  get a sustained euro low anomoly between now and the nd of jan then it’s bust on that. The high anoms to our n and nw have always been of a mobile variety on the daily charts which get little exposure 

 

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think we may have to now consider the possibility that the SSW didn't go for us.  That's not to discount the science in any way, it doesn't guarantee cold for UK, sometimes you roll the dice and they come up snake eyes.  It happens.  Reason for despondency the zonal wind plot on ECM at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.39aa76dc4b3bbd27269b24c9f9a70858.jpg

The blue easterly flows seem to be disappearing, one run obviously, but it looks like the SSW is running out of petrol before it has delivered anything.  Which is a surprise to me because it looked like a significant one.  

MJO assistance still possible early Feb, if not, the writing is on the wall now.

Well said. At last a voice of reason.

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

This is what it showed on the 7th Jan below for the 21st-27th Jan then the 28th-4th Feb..

500za_week3_bg.png.c1b8f1f36f19d04c1f1023c97625f30f.png.fe4877e8b15093dda8759dcb0b544e91.png

500za_week4_bg.png.6212c8df693347a574bd5f2dfdd774c5.png.f4cdd65ca509f04108af051f4eea84e5.png

image.png.3ae69a119d836b2d4b02bb057ac95bef.png

image.png.56d1bef45eed02a144ae1eca4709a88e.png

3C37423E-15FD-4A04-BC76-34D1E1F9904C.jpeg.abde83485a4d9eafd09f55071d7a3dbc.jpeg

929C3F0C-0E78-487E-A812-747130054566.jpeg.c57595fe2c128b9f25a0b2a157647e1e.jpeg

So for this period it had higher than average heights in the Atlantic and below average 850 hpa temperatures. Both of which we currently have.

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

This is what it showed on the 7th Jan below for the 21st-27th Jan then the 28th-4th Feb..

500za_week3_bg.png.c1b8f1f36f19d04c1f1023c97625f30f.png.fe4877e8b15093dda8759dcb0b544e91.png

500za_week4_bg.png.6212c8df693347a574bd5f2dfdd774c5.png.f4cdd65ca509f04108af051f4eea84e5.png

image.png.3ae69a119d836b2d4b02bb057ac95bef.png

image.png.56d1bef45eed02a144ae1eca4709a88e.png

3C37423E-15FD-4A04-BC76-34D1E1F9904C.jpeg.abde83485a4d9eafd09f55071d7a3dbc.jpeg

929C3F0C-0E78-487E-A812-747130054566.jpeg.c57595fe2c128b9f25a0b2a157647e1e.jpeg

I can’t show you the mean charts for every two days as weatherbell only offer archive on the 7 day means, I assure you that the daily charts from the 46 haven’t been showing a sustained block as the 7 day means show. Far more a  ebb and flow of mobile ridging ....standard interpretation would be that the mobility would end up being a more sustained ridge ......that hasn’t happened due to the depth of the Canadian vortex being incorrectly modelled 

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Just now, MattStoke said:

So for this period it had higher than average heights in the Atlantic and below average 850 hpa temperatures. Both of which we currently have.

We are gonna be below average for a few days . You can’t dress this up the ecm / EC46 has got bits and bobs right around the globe but over are side it’s not . You can tell from them temp charts the cold is from the east . But there’s been no cold from the east . It’s a bust . 

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM weeklies issued today are still going for below average over the next 4 weeks

g9rieBa.pngaUp7BNS.pngb9IPzqG.pngviCtDTp.png

There a white out 😂

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The 12z swingometers are now out and they don't look the most exciting it must be said. The very cold runs have proved harder to come by and the end of January is turning increasingly cyclonic if the GEFS is to be believed. Rather cold but messy is the way I'd some up the end of January, no easterlies sadly. P6 tries to build a Scandi high.

image.thumb.png.dd19b23d53dcb6aa5fce840b7734f800.pngimage.thumb.png.93b5bf9e1e3555829e838279c6995eb2.png 

For February 5th it looks a real mixed bag at the moment which is to be expected but not much in the way of blocking at the moment. Those who fancy an early taste of Spring will like the P4 chart below. Knowing this winter that will be the chart that verifies!

image.thumb.png.1ab767fddba0d04fd262a56e2fa74b15.pngimage.thumb.png.cfdd40647d727b4eec421d6ef29a2e12.png 

The global temperature anomaly plot is pretty sobering for our cold weather prospects, a very cold NW North Atlantic so I expect a very strong westerly pattern to set up into February though some of these may be rather cold they don't really offer much away from the NW UK.

image.thumb.png.4ea5ca95e18e6563834504a4e83515ae.png

Starting to get a bit bored of this winter now but will hold out hope until early February. If the charts continue to look underwhelming I may start having one eye on Spring. This winter has been Dyer so far, Kieron Dyer that is! Hyped up for some reason despite rarely ever making an appearance....

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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It's worth remembering that, no matter how bad the winter has been thus far, there have been some classic winters that didn't really get going until the early stages of February.  Take 2019 for example when...

Oh damn, just realised I got out my time machine in the wrong year....

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The other thing to note is that there IS some ridging, indeed 48hrs chart from the model shows quite a plump ridge from, but the PV lobe has been pretty unrelenting thus far and there energy flattens it out and indeed forces a NW airflow pretty quickly.

Also the SSW may be a bust for US but if you take a look at the N.Hemisphere profile by 240hrs there is a pretty large and strong Arctic High in place...its just that unfortunately for us its literally on the other side of the world and so is of only minimal use for us IF the PV lobe does ease off.

Ensembles still are trying to develop some northern blocking, or a block of some description to our N/NE but a large chunk are instead dominated by that UGLY Atlantic upper low that sits and rotates milder LPs onto our shores...man I really hate that upper low in that position, with a passion! May still be ok for the north but if that happens, game over for the south.

Edited by kold weather

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM weeklies issued today are still going for below average over the next 4 weeks

g9rieBa.pngaUp7BNS.pngb9IPzqG.pngviCtDTp.png

Those are from last week’s update.

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

So for this period it had higher than average heights in the Atlantic and below average 850 hpa temperatures. Both of which we currently have.

Well if you think the charts below represent height anomaly for the EC46 for the period 21st-27th i'm Kris Kringle.

ECH1-0 (1).gif

ECH1-24.gif

ECH1-48.gif

ECH1-72.gif

ECH1-96.gif

ECH1-120 (3).gif

ECH1-144 (4).gif

500za_week3_bg.png.c1b8f1f36f19d04c1f1023c97625f30f.png.fe4877e8b15093dda8759dcb0b544e91.png.b590cf88ee5aedda853465e8a323987e.png

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