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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Sunday starting to look interesting on GFS and ICON for Sunday with that LP sliding across the south 

A674BBD5-1AF6-4E80-8460-2BE06C77D0A1.png

AC7DEA37-D25F-4B00-9F4D-A6C1B23A49D0.png

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Have to agree with mods .  New format better, I enjoy reading focussed thread and my heart no longer sinks knowing that 300 new one liner posts have appeared since I went to make a cup of tea.  I enjoy this one, obviously, although come the time when all the Christmas toys are hurled out of the collective Pram, I can retreat to the sanity of the other thread😀

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Should be a better run from GFS for cold and snow due to less mini-ridge activity on the northern flank of the Atlantic High as it oscillates.

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I think the two threads is great but would be improved if this 😄 was added back.

 

moving on t144 gfs ukmo possible build of heights to the ne on the ukmo. Plenty of interesting weather ahead and few surprises to come at short notice I reckon. 

4DE7673D-D46D-46B3-8DF0-DF17494337C8.png

530E2163-FA56-4303-9927-20CB087C164B.png

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9 minutes ago, Paul said:

It's a co-incidence - the thread traffic and posting eased once the potential easterly bit the dust, as it often does when a potential cold spell fades. It'll then pick up again when people have had a bit of a break and when there's another cold spell showing up in the nearish future.

As for where to post, it's actually not very different to the setup previously when we had the hunt for cold thread. You can use both threads if you wish, the focused one is quieter by design with no banter and just model chat, so maybe a good spot for more considered opinions once runs have completed etc. This one is the same hunt for cold thread as previously, albeit with the word banter in the title so people are aware that as well as the model chat, some bantery off topic stuff is allowed too. 

This split should in theory give everyone what they want - if you want banter with your models, this thread is great. If you want a quieter, banter-free discussion head to the other one. Or, if you like both, maybe cross-post the posts you maybe don't want to get lost in amongst the general chatter in here. 

 

i think the 2 threads are very simple and much better as one is bfor model discussion and a bit of anything goes and a the other more serious and some very good reading. WHERE ON EARTH IS THE CONFUSION IN THAT.

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gfs-0-180.png?12

So losing any attempted ridging narrows down the mild sector and makes the next hit of cold PM air that bit colder 

gfs-1-180.png?12

gfs-0-186.png?12 Also note the increasing heights as per the ICON towards Greenland
gfs-0-192.png?12Which make the next low slide

Edited by frosty ground
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178h not too shabby! Frerquent heavy snow showers rattling in from the north west, western scotland and northern ireland getting a pasting!    gfs-2-174.thumb.png.483c02761901b27798e9ad574ae32c3f.png

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Would be a small area of quite decent snowfall on Sunday if the GFS came off, and a larger area of front edge snow which transitions to rain as the warm sector comes through, room for adjustments there.

Main story for south is a lot of rain, fortunately its been quite dry otherwise there would ve flooding concerns with this sort of repeating pattern. Its really not a good pattern for us down here UNLESS an area of cold can actually establish at some point without getting flushed away 12hrs later and rinse and repeat.

Midlands, especially west Midlands and areas north/west of that main story is probable frontal snow chances and heavy snow showers behind the fronts which may dig into the south to give some wintry stuff for us lot down here!

So going to be a mix of reactions on here I suspect, for those further north/west, solid pattern. For those in south, its basically average winter fare in every way over the next 7 days.

Edited by kold weather
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1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

178h not too shabby! Frerquent heavy snow showers rattling in from the north west, western scotland and northern ireland getting a pasting!    gfs-2-174.thumb.png.483c02761901b27798e9ad574ae32c3f.png

You mean 174h - Those 4 hours make the difference;) 😂

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-180.png?12

So losing any attempted ridging narrows down the mild sector and makes the next hit of cold PM air that bit colder 

gfs-1-180.png?12

gfs-0-186.png?12 Also note the increasing heights as per the ICON towards Greenland
gfs-0-192.png?12Which make the next low slide

Brilliant run the 12z..

Plenty of snow potential for many!

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Agreed northwest, for a large part of the country this is actually quite an interesting, if very marginal, set-up.

192hrs is a better flow for the south to get involved, longer fetch as well, should mean warm sectors become less of an issue.

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Thundery showers in the West and North; embedded troughs affecting everywhere!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.ff80a398636daa9cdd708e72a6b2484c.png

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The gfs and ukmo at t144 are quiet different so fi starts at t96/t120 gfs does show plenty of snow chances but........

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Some very snowy runs popping up..

And yes..we-already have the m4 drop/coastal-m4 devils drum!!!

However there is a lot evolving now- and certainly a spike in my own interests once again.....

An interesting evening coming up i feel.

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EVen the south gets involved by 216hrs with a nice little embedded low pressure coming down from the NW, along with a decent number of showers coming in on that NW thanks to the highly cyclonic nature of the flow, looks like a very snowy run for a lot of people.

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gfs-0-234.png?12

Another PV Splinter and with the Jet angled Nw/SE another snow event possible, but with warmer 850's ahead of it more marginal 

Signs of another Greenland high attempt (again)

Edited by frosty ground
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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

EVen the south gets involved by 216hrs with a nice little embedded low pressure coming down from the NW, along with a decent number of showers coming in on that NW thanks to the highly cyclonic nature of the flow, looks like a very snowy run for a lot of people.

Aye, kold...I smell a stonking Day 10 coming up...?😁

image.thumb.png.e931c5c2780dcccaf6f64560b5a34ce5.png

Thanks for putting the 'laugh' back, Paul!:santa-emoji:

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I think it’s best to be cautious of 850 projections in PM flows until much closer in .

Therefore current GFS snow forecasts need to be taken with a large pinch of salt . Shortwave activity near Iceland is often not picked up at this range .

In terms of the outputs so far the UKMO has much more influence of the Russian high than the GFS at day 5 and 6 . The GEM also more keen than the GFS.

The Russian high is often a tease , although it will block in the Euro troughing forcing more trough dusruption over the UK .

We’d want any energy in that case heading se not south . 

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Just now, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-234.png?12

Another PV Splinter and with the Jet angled Nw/SE another snow event possible, but with warmer 850's ahead of it more marginal 

This looks like the one that is going to stop the rinse/repeat type pattern, at least for a little while.

A lot depends on where that lobe goes, too far west and we may end up dragging in southerly type airflow, especially for the south. The further north you go though the more leeway you have with that happening. If it stays in a goos spot though could develop another very snowy period.

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Some very snowy runs popping up..

And yes..we-already have the m4 drop/coastal-m4 devils drum!!!

However there is a lot evolving now- and certainly a spike in my own interests once again.....

An interesting evening coming up i feel.

That phrase needs to be banned

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3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm glad I was born in 1957 and not 2057...In winter 2119, Netweather will have a thread dedicated to searching for days with maxes below 10C! 

my goodness - has this turned into the clowns' thread??!!!

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