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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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37 minutes ago, shaky said:

Been dry here for a week now and no rain in sight at the moment!!models look like something you would see in july or august!!fanatastic warm weekend coming up for most of the uk!!!may the summer looking charts continue as long as possible cos my craving and excitement for snow has completely diminished now!!!looking forward to another hot summer hopefully!

hope so, just get crappy today out the way, looks wet here, then decent Spring like days

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If a series of charts could sum up winter...

GFSP 240/264/348h

image.thumb.png.82734a2ba694dce5ba50c5c0442b09eb.pngimage.thumb.png.79be9919607600375391c3a32230bddd.pngimage.thumb.png.45d958e28d6c4681e84ee798697b0e77.png

Seemingly good NH profile, plenty of "potential" as an elongated high gets pushed to a NW and forces a negative tilt on western LPs....and...no slider, the thing collapses, and this "winter" goes on.

ECM is no better as the 240h is as flat as the week-old lemonade in my fridge:

image.thumb.png.a268ce3cc20ef784643d82270d0d9fac.png

Anyone fancy crowdfunding an attempt to dump a load of cold water into the Labrador sea? 💃

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Good news for coldies, the Ecm 00z isn't quite as hot as 24 hours ago..it's still very mild / unseasonably warm though.👍😉

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FI. FI, FI, it all gets so far away. Somebody alert the express, its finally coming this one is sure to be a front headline grabber! 😳

gfs-1-384 (1).pngyou can imagine the headline, William Hills spokesman has said, we have drastically cut the odds on March being the coldest on record to evens.... Due to this in la la land gfs model run. Interesting times! 😂

Edited by Mattwolves
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Some exceptional models this morning and an amazing contrast to this time last year!

I'm increasingly confident of daily records falling and I feel that there is a chance the all time records fall as well, mainly as this is looking quite sustained with at least 4 days where +8c 850hpa air is around, maybe longer.

Maybe we may see our first winter time 20c? Not impossible.

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9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Good news for coldies, the Ecm 00z isn't quite as hot as 24 hours ago..it's still very mild / unseasonably warm though.👍😉

Still very dry aswell.

Only recorded 47mm of rain so far this year. Combined with the dryness of last year then we could do with some rain!

 

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I hate to say it but now a good chance of 20C being reached during the next week.  As others have said an incredible difference to this time last year!

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Wonder if we will get record low temps later in the spring,the weather is certainly getting more extreme each year.

Many mild spells in february have then be followed by very cold weather later in the spring with snowfall even in April.

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5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wonder if we will get record low temps later in the spring,the weather is certainly getting more extreme each year.

Many mild spells in february have then be followed by very cold weather later in the spring with snowfall even in April.

We may get a below average spell of temperatures but record low is extremely hard to achieve these days. 

Also, look at how many above average months we get compared to the below average ones. There is a big difference.

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I've mentioned some days ago that the drought in the continent is likely to give an early start to the forest fire season. I didn't expect it to start already in February!

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2019/02/17/cantabria-burning-more-than-700-fire-fighters-battle-around-50-forest-fires/#.XGqIY9L7TRY

With the winds turning southerly in a few days, I wonder if we will import some of that smoke.

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Late winter and early spring are a common time for fires as there's a lot of dead material lying about, When new growth gets going the vegetation layer is damper.
Also it's often windy with quite low humidity. We seem the same thing in the UK most years with March being a particularly drying month 
 

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1 hour ago, Don said:

I hate to say it but now a good chance of 20C being reached during the next week.  As others have said an incredible difference to this time last year!

I'm not so sure myself - i'd say it's probably odds against getting 20c. I think we will see 18.something, but that's my own opinion of course.

Anyway, the block looks like holding strong out to day 10 at least:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019021800_240.

A definite trend to start bringing the Atlantic back in as we head into March:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019021800_300.

Nothing cold on the horizon just yet.

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And so my towel is thrown into the ring, an amazing winter if only for the sheer persistence of low heights to the North west! Incredible duration stretching back to November!!

Hopefully a nice summer to compensate for a truly rubbish winter!

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And so my towel is thrown into the ring, an amazing winter if only for the sheer persistence of low heights to the North west! Incredible duration stretching back to November!!

Hopefully a nice summer to compensate for a truly rubbish winter!

Despite the long range forecasts was for HLB to the NW 😩,can we at least hear from the posters who forecast a cold winter into what exactly went wrong,it’s almost the complete opposite NH profile.

Think you will see snow in spring Northwest so maybe see you soon in the regional threads ,ciao for now 👋

Edited by SLEETY
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Someone's knocking at the door, somebody's ringing the bell.... For god sake let em in!!!! 🙄

gfs-1-384 (2).png

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33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And so my towel is thrown into the ring, an amazing winter if only for the sheer persistence of low heights to the North west! Incredible duration stretching back to November!!

Hopefully a nice summer to compensate for a truly rubbish winter!

With all the towels now thrown in, I  expect some very cold charts to appear in the next couple of days.

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12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Someone's knocking at the door, somebody's ringing the bell.... For god sake let em in!!!! 🙄

gfs-1-384 (2).png

Clowns..I mean cold air to the left of me, jokers..I mean cold air to the right..here I am stuck in the middle with you!👍😁

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Is it just me, or has the ha ha Icon been removed for posts, just as thanks and like now? 

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06z ICON showing 16c in parts of NE Scotland and NE England on Thursday

893692617_Dzr3VFUXgAAX_46.pnglarge.thumb.png.89d513738364cd61aacd45fd94f01777.png

Daily record is 17.5c Banchory, Aberdeenshire in 1974

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I think it’ll be a real head scratcher deciphering this winter. The met office continually hinted at cold weather for weeks - as did many experts - yet nothing materialised. It’s been odd that despite it not being cold, it’s not been mild wet and windy either. Just generally mild and dry.

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58 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And so my towel is thrown into the ring, an amazing winter if only for the sheer persistence of low heights to the North west! Incredible duration stretching back to November!!

Hopefully a nice summer to compensate for a truly rubbish winter!

Yes it been pretty shocking over the whole period.Pitty there wasn't an area of high pressure to the nne all winter instead.

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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Is it just me, or has the ha ha Icon been removed for posts, just as thanks and like now? 

Yes it has, Please use the Pm system for any further discussion on this, Thanks.

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26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

06z ICON showing 16c in parts of NE Scotland and NE England on Thursday

893692617_Dzr3VFUXgAAX_46.pnglarge.thumb.png.89d513738364cd61aacd45fd94f01777.png

Daily record is 17.5c Banchory, Aberdeenshire in 1974

Certainly possible. The ICON did a poor job with temperatures and was way too low last time. Looks more realistic this time.

Values look similar to last Friday which had 17c, so with an extra week of sun strength 17.6c looks really do able locally.

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13 hours ago, Nath said:

Amazing warm looking week ahead.  Maybe the recent SSW has downwelled to ground level UK this time lol

Hell more like 

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