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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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4 minutes ago, offerman said:

 Apart from the one very heavy snowfall where it dropped 5CM in some areas 10 in others quite widely across the country and then 28 down here where I live and many other areas had deep snow as well  

 

 So it can't be called a disaster completely and I'll make do with the one really really snowy period which was so nice to see and akin  in-depth terms to the 1980s  

 

 So not a complete disaster let's be grateful for what we had . 

I can call it a disaster. no lying snow and only witnessed 5 mins of falling snow. No Ice days and no days when frost has remained all day. For my location that is very unusual. Also I can think of many locations in the same boat as me.

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32 minutes ago, swfc said:

It's over two weeks away tho!!! I'm looking for the dry mainly mild- very mild weather to continue till late spring hopefully.just a question ,why does the PV show purple even when bits head south.i don't mean in regards to 850s etc.Tia

I’m not sure what you’re question is, I can only explain that the polar vortex is very high up So the purple doesn’t correlate to the temperature on the surface so that’s why it shows purple even over the uk. Purple is showing the colder air masses higher up in the atmosphere that will still be felt on the surface but obviously not as cold as that. When we get a split in the vortex it can dip down into parts of the northern hemisphere causing very cold air to become established higher up which will obviously be warmer close to ground

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1 hour ago, kold weather said:

I think anyone who thinks the record wouldn't fall on the 00z ECM is living in a fallacy...the same fallacy that made people think last Friday was going to be 10-11c because that what the models show. In truth we saw a local 17c.

Regardless this spell is likely to be a historic mild/borderline warm spell for Feb and daily records at least are likely to fall.

I'd guess probably 50-50 chance of the all time record going as well. With 4-5 days at similar if not slighlt warmer upper/thickness and a slightly longer day, we are going to see plenty of chances. The only limiting factor maybe how cold can the nights get.

However the thickness/uppers on the ECM would not be out of place in June...

Records to beat: -

19.7degC 67.5degF Greenwich (London) 13 Feb 1998

19.5degC 67.1degF Tivington (Somerset) 13 Feb 1998

19.4degC 67degF Cambridge 27 Feb 1891

19.2degC 66.6degF March (Cambridgeshire) 23 Feb 1990

18.9degC 66.1degF Harestock (Hampshire) 28 Feb 1891

18.9degC 66degF London; Brixton 10 Feb 1899

18.9degC 66degF London; Greenwich and Northolt 28 Feb 1959

http://www.torro.org.uk/maxtemps.php

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E347BAA7-86FD-45E2-BC9A-A581B293BA17.thumb.png.db36e40a59ccc8617113bc2c9b489f77.png

these charts are usually posted when they show clear outliers must have missed today’s 

Edited by frosty ground
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5 hours ago, draztik said:

Winter grinds on in the U.S., whereas over in the U.K.,.....

ECM0-240_rza1.GIF

That's just alarming!

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

STONKING GEFS ALERT!

image.thumb.png.cae7621daccc8835d399725b8e172ca8.png

In a couple of weeks time the mean gets just below zero?

Halcyon days, I'm off for a lie down.

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

GFSP18EU06_336_1.png

:cold:😱

That's more like it!  Pity it's in lala land as per usual!

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People keep saying how mild it is, wearing shorts & t-shirts etc. Well i've just been for a ramble in the Peak District and there's quite a windchill, everyone had thick coats, hats and gloves on - not a pair of shorts in sight! 

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Are we really chasing a Northwesterly at 384h that will possibly last for 8-12h before the high flattens again? To be fair since early this winter it seemed that the Azores high was very active. Add to this the full energy of the Canadian vortex, the chances for something exceptional were slim for us. Southeast Europe will have at least another 2 cold waves and the first one was "predicted" by gfs at 300+h. 

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36 minutes ago, ghrud said:

Records to beat: -

19.7degC 67.5degF Greenwich (London) 13 Feb 1998

19.5degC 67.1degF Tivington (Somerset) 13 Feb 1998

19.4degC 67degF Cambridge 27 Feb 1891

19.2degC 66.6degF March (Cambridgeshire) 23 Feb 1990

18.9degC 66.1degF Harestock (Hampshire) 28 Feb 1891

18.9degC 66degF London; Brixton 10 Feb 1899

18.9degC 66degF London; Greenwich and Northolt 28 Feb 1959

http://www.torro.org.uk/maxtemps.php

I remember that February 1998 warm spell, we were on holiday in Devon (Wembury Bay)

One day was spent on the beach in shorts and t shirt another sat eating ice creams outside a café.

 

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13 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

People keep saying how mild it is, wearing shorts & t-shirts etc. Well i've just been for a ramble in the Peak District and there's quite a windchill, everyone had thick coats, hats and gloves on - not a pair of shorts in sight! 

Well I've seen hundreds of cars going at 5 miles per hour because it was just snowing... A while ago a friend told me it's cold today... Sorry but it's 12 degrees and my children are out wearing the Leicester City shorts. 

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28 minutes ago, Johnp said:

In a couple of weeks time the mean gets just below zero?

Halcyon days, I'm off for a lie down.

Yes and to think that we have been getting excited all winter about D10 charts that never verified and now the best that we can do is see potential by D15!

I bet we will see the decent blocking turn up but in late March and April producing a cold and wet spring.:olddoh:

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1 hour ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

May get some stonkers! This is getting me more excited now! Sod this mild spell! 

125826A3-8D76-4A77-9FEA-E513FCD50BF8.png

Got to hand it to you Oliver, I thought I was a die hard coldie, but you my friend really do take the top honours for that, I think only frosty has more enthusiasm, fair play to you 😉

Edited by Mattwolves
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31 minutes ago, Don said:

That's more like it!  Pity it's in lala land as per usual!

Not just la la land...its also P18!:oldlaugh:

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Got to hand it to you Oliver, I thought I was a die hard coldie, but you my friend really do take the top honours for that, I think only frosty has more enthusiasm, fair play to you 😉

Yep, if i see any sort of hint about cold I’m on it straight away. Just wait till the summer when I hunt for thunderstorms!

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Wow the ECM is even warmer for half term with an area of 14C @850mb, this could be amazing with perhaps a chance to wear shorts, t-shirts and flip flops for the first time this year and this early in the year too here in South Wales 😎☀️🍦🍦🍦🍺🍺🍺

However GFS doesn't have a bar of it and keeps it cooler but still mild for February 

image.jpeg

image.png

Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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It’s just so ironic. Those who were predicting record breaking temps in Feb may get their wish after all!

Maybe we could exceed 20C for the first time in a winter month?

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6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s just so ironic. Those who were predicting record breaking temps in Feb may get their wish after all!

Maybe we could exceed 20C for the first time in a winter month?

The apps ain't having it, 12-14 degrees at best, obviously cloud cover dependent. Any long sunny breaks and it's possible, stuck under cloud cover all day and the above figures will be  closer to the mark. 

Edited by Mattwolves

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13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s just so ironic. Those who were predicting record breaking temps in Feb may get their wish after all!

Maybe we could exceed 20C for the first time in a winter month?

Not sure it would have been many people's wish, but the possibility has been well represented in the ensemble suites for the last couple of weeks that we might see something akin to a Spanish plume. I thought there was a high chance of some notable warmth mid month but I confess that I never expected it to last for this long!! 

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18 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s just so ironic. Those who were predicting record breaking temps in Feb may get their wish after all!

Maybe we could exceed 20C for the first time in a winter month?

Problem being that some were predicting record cold in Feb not heat following on from the January SSW. To add insult to injury we have ended up with the complete opposite, in fact this SSW in February could be called a Sudden South Wales Warming if the ECM is right with record breaking heat.😂

ECM0-240.gif

Edited by snowray
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9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The apps ain't having it, 12-14 degrees at best, obviously cloud cover dependent. Any long sunny breaks and it's possible, stuck under cloud cover all day and the above figures will be  closer to the mark. 

I wouldn't pay the apps too much heed, somewhere will soar well above those sorts of figures. Typically setups like that tend to lead to local maxes of 17-19c (as we saw on Friday) and more general maxes between 13-16c).

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Massive difference in temperatures compared to last year this time round. Anyone got comparisons for one of coldest of last feb at same as this years mild weather. Remember the windchill feel was sub -10 and comapare it to mid teens and possibly warmer in south, that is a massive difference in temperature and feel :0

Edited by Snowjokes92

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1 hour ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Well I've seen hundreds of cars going at 5 miles per hour because it was just snowing... A while ago a friend told me it's cold today... Sorry but it's 12 degrees and my children are out wearing the Leicester City shorts. 

and so you should be sorry allowing poor innocent children to wear Leicester City shorts!😛

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I wouldn't pay the apps too much heed, somewhere will soar well above those sorts of figures. Typically setups like that tend to lead to local maxes of 17-19c (as we saw on Friday) and more general maxes between 13-16c).

Oh I agree as regards to apps, even the met ones only point to mid teen values. But Yeh, temperature forecasts whether it be cold or mild always fall way short of the mark. 

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2 hours ago, offerman said:

 Apart from the one very heavy snowfall where it dropped 5CM in some areas 10 in others quite widely across the country and then 28 down here where I live and many other areas had deep snow as well  

 

 So it can't be called a disaster completely and I'll make do with the one really really snowy period which was so nice to see and akin  in-depth terms to the 1980s  

 

 So not a complete disaster let's be grateful for what we had . 

Exactly.

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