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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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18 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The Atlantic has not that much energy this winter as such. It has been blocked at times, few Atlantic storms. However there has been enough energy to prevent significant northerly blocking. It has not been a stormy wet winter.

Even though it hasn't been cold and snowy, a mild and benign winter is the next best thing.  A reasonable winter in my view.  I guess the disappointing thing viz. cold/snow has been the high expectations (background drivers, Met Office 15-30 day forecasts etc.).  It's those expectations that have left people flat!

Edited by mulzy
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Well all the expectations/potential failed to deliver the goods this year...all the eye candy  was 10+ days out every time ...but it made 'interesting' viewing and I've enjoyed all the posts and predictions this winter despite it being one of the most snowless ones in these parts that I can remember for a long time!.. (two very brief dustings) 2018/19..the winter that never was!..so it's time to get off the rollercoaster and save up for a ticket for next winters ride!.. take care folks..here's to a long hot summer eh?😬😄👍🍺🍺

Edited by K9
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I really think we can pretty much write off any chance of meaningful cold now before the end of February at the very least.  Looks like the second half of the month is going the same way as that in 2009 and 2012.  I don't hold out much hope for March either at this stage if it's cold you're looking for.

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15 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Even though it hasn't been cold and snowy, a mild and benign winter is the next best thing.  A reasonable winter in my view.  I guess the disappointing thing viz. cold/snow has been the high expectations (background drivers, Met Office 15-30 day forecasts etc.).  It's those expectations that have left people flat!

It's pretty sad that proper wintery weather can evade these shores during a blocked winter.. It sucks!!

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22 minutes ago, K9 said:

Well all the expectations/potential failed to deliver the goods this year...all the eye candy  was 10+ days out every time ...but it made 'interesting' viewing and I've enjoyed all the posts and predictions this winter despite it being one of the most snowless ones in these parts that I can remember for a long time!.. (two very brief dustings) 2018/19..the winter that never was!..so it's time to get off the rollercoaster and save up for a ticket for next winters ride!.. take care folks..here's to a long hot summer eh?😬😄👍🍺🍺

Same. It's been interesting to watch and I admire those who have made their predictions. Unfortunately, it just doesn't look like producing the goods this year. 

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25 minutes ago, Don said:

I really think we can pretty much write off any chance of meaningful cold now before the end of February at the very least.  Looks like the second half of the month is going the same way as that in 2009 and 2012.  I don't hold out much hope for March either at this stage if it's cold you're looking for.

Anyone can say this so please provide charts to back your predictions up, the models update several times  a day, things can change, and have changed before 

March has seen some of the snowiest times for us over recent years so for one not time to give up, your more than welcome to and pop to another thread in the hunt for spring but those who love cold, snow will stay here and hunt for it :) 

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37 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Spot on with your assesment.

The only positive is hopefully some members next winter won't take the background signals as gospel and use them as possible indicators on how the weather MAY turn out. I enjoy the posts from Catacol, GP and their posting style. 

 

I think that everyone got it wrong, Dave; and, even in the days before teleconnections were discovered, we would still have all got it wrong?

What if the weather has fundamentally changed? 2016-17 was another winter that defied endless 'BOOMing' and came up with nothing; last year's was only saved by an SSW; and, last summers heat seemed to go on forever, despite continued expectations to the contrary...

I'm just thinking that it might not be so much a cockeyed interpretation of the 'background signals', as a fundamental (at some level) shift in weather patterns?

Who knows?🤔

Edit: Apologies, peeps. I IMBYd when I said that last winter was only saved by an SSW; both of the sliders gave only rain/sleet, over here.

Edited by Ed Stone
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Some of you need to let March 2013 go. 

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5 minutes ago, March said:

Some of you need to let March 2013 go. 

I did, 6 years ago. It was pants down here. But March 18 was the dog's!

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55 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Even though it hasn't been cold and snowy, a mild and benign winter is the next best thing.  A reasonable winter in my view.  I guess the disappointing thing viz. cold/snow has been the high expectations (background drivers, Met Office 15-30 day forecasts etc.).  It's those expectations that have left people flat!

Completely disagree with the first part of your post,and agree totally with the second part!

The next best thing for me is another winter extreme,storm naming and all the attendant craziness in terms of wind,rainfall,thunder and anything else a Deep LP may send our way.

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There's next to no cold to our East either. Oslo currently 9c,Warsaw will hit 11c this week, Moscow multiple days with highs of 2 to 3c this week. Average high for Moscow this time of year is -4/-5.

Personally I'd take a Northerly over an Easterly but fat chance of either over the next 10 days. Then we're knocking on the door of March, which we all know can deliver but really we would want it to happen in winter proper and have less worry about melt. A total bust this Winter. 

A proper cold snowy spell, a proper storm or a week of high pressure with frosty nights and ice/almost ice days. I can't remember a winter to never have one of those things happen. Bland and boring sums it up, odd exception here and there. 

Edited by StormyWeather28
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4 minutes ago, StormyWeather28 said:

There's next to no cold to our East either. Oslo currently 9c,Warsaw will hit 11c this week, Moscow multiple days with highs of 2 to 3c this week. Average high for Moscow this time of year is -4/-5.

Personally I'd take a Northerly over an Easterly but fat chance of either over the next 10 days. Then we're knocking on the door of March, which we all know can deliver but really we would want it to happen in winter proper and have less worry about melt. A total bust this Winter. 

Considering an Easterly would be at least 2 weeks away not sure what relevance today's temperatures are. If the right conditions present themselves then those places will turn very cold  very quickly 

gfs-1-348.png

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37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think that everyone got it wrong, Dave; and, even in the days before teleconnections were discovered, we would still have all got it wrong?

What if the weather has fundamentally changed? 2016-17 was another winter that defied endless 'BOOMing' and came up with nothing; last year's was only saved by an SSW; and, last summers heat seemed to go on forever, despite continued expectations to the contrary...

I'm just thinking that it might not be so much a cockeyed interpretation of the 'background signals', as a fundamental (at some level) shift in weather patterns?

Who knows?🤔

You could be right and maybe these signals 20 yrs ago might of delivered a 1962-3 winter. However who knows the real reason and can we be sure that is the right answer?

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on....
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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Considering an Easterly would be at least 2 weeks away not sure what relevance today's temperatures are. If the right conditions present themselves then those places will turn very cold  very quickly 

gfs-1-348.png

I was just pointing out how mild it is across Europe for the time of year as well. I'd always take a Northerly over an Easterly regardless of what it's like across Europe. 

Edited by StormyWeather28
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21 minutes ago, TEITS said:

You could be right and maybe these signals 20 yrs ago might of delivered a 1962-3 winter. However who knows the real reason and can we be sure that is the right answer?

Or maybe it would have just delivered an identical winter to what we've just had. Who knows. As Ed said they've all got it wrong. Next Winter I can't see as many people having much appetite for background signals. That's not an attack on anyone btw. 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Back in the 70s and 80s little was known about background signals. People just assumed it was a cold snap based on it being winter and that it was a naturally occurring event. Problem now is folk know so much about these signals  they will play up or even dismiss a winter based upon them! 

And omg, even the CMA has gone mild now. I'm still holding on to my towel and flying a flag for the hunt for cold, but this towel is now hanging on a string. Things  could still change in the next few days, and March is a long month, maybe not a big freeze, but surely we can salvage another couple of snow events. 👍

cma-1-240.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Back in the 70s and 80s little was known about background signals. People just assumed it was a cold snap based on it being winter and that it was a naturally occurring event. Problem now is folk know so much about these signals  they will play up or even dismiss a winter based upon them! 

And omg, even the CMA has gone mild now. I'm still holding on to my towel and flying a flag for the hunt for cold, but this towel is now hanging on a string. Things  could still change in the next few days, and March is a long month, maybe not a big freeze, but surely we can salvage another couple of snow events. 👍

cma-1-240.png

Amazing how there is cold air either side of us but the uk has the mildest air in the northern hemisphere😂😂

Edited by shaky

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Dier EPS - however, the one cluster means that there are so many solutions on the table - this born out by some ridiculous variation member to member on the 6z GEFS, still hanging in there because there are still some amplified solutions in there albeit with a poor FI mean.

image.thumb.png.3a55c4ffcf36ad84b3c2a241913e457d.png

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Amazing how there is cold air either side of us but the uk has the mildest air in the northern hemisphere😂😂

 

"cold to the left of me,freezing to the right....here i am,stuck in the middle with ..phew!

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12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Amazing how there is cold air either side of us but the uk has the mildest air in the northern hemisphere😂😂

Probably in response to the SSW a few weeks back.

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Had enough of the GFS now.

FV3 though while ever high pressure is like that I'm interested

gfsnh-0-240.png

gfs-0-204.png

Edited by winterof79
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Bar the short dip down to around average for a couple of days early next week the overall theme is mild

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.064a4038ddfb8f1c5aa07d93034963de.pnggefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.0437bb759aea2009751a9583d424ae6b.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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4 hours ago, IDO said:

It is quite clear that whatever height rises the models were hinting at was just background noise. That is no surprise as there is really no forcing on the long wave pattern, very flat apart from the mid-latitude UK high. The D10 GEFS show that any ridge is now gone:

gens_panel_uko6.png

Although I would say the PV is ripe for punishment, there is just not enough wave activity to do the job and as the PV remains mobile any potential will get toppled in short course.

At D16 the GEFS offer little prospects of cold:

gens_panel_pik9.png London> graphe3_1000_313_152___.thumb.gif.e34b161c1bda6e8d7262498451087e8d.gif

The mean upper cold is well above average for all but a couple of days in the next 16. The few runs showing cold are zonal.

That takes us into the start of March and the NH profile on the op is self-explanatory:

958702042_gfsnh-0-384(2).thumb.png.b8bc048ac913d006f97949098885c992.png

It has become clear to me that MJO, SSW, and other background signals have been misplaced this Winter. No doubt the experts will reanalyze and maybe the usual composites will need to be adjusted for similar setups?

And before someone says March can be cold, it can, it can also be chilly with cold rain, or zonal or mild or dry!

Time to draw stumps for another season?

Fl is where that mini dip in the charts is, I will not look any further than that. It might stay mild or flip to cold, don't know which, but could still go either way.

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