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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Interestingly there is a draining away of the PV from Canada and Alaska and in turn Greenland as we approach FI. Much better than the 12z. Clutching at straws? Maybe, but at least it's different!

In fact, a Greeny high and a direct northerly is not a million miles form that chart at 132!

Edited by Rocheydub
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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46, South to SW winds with the trough anchored to our west - danny.

You watch it verify now.  Another nail in the winter 2018/19 coffin!

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46, South to SW winds with the trough anchored to our west - danny.

Yup only this time after weeks of  forecasting full on cold and snowy anomalys it shall be absolutely CORRECT about the mild outcome it is showing cos its not cold and snow and also just our damn luck !!!you gota laugh at it really!!its been abysmal from the ec46!!

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5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Interestingly there is a draining away of the PV from Canada and Alaska and in turn Greenland as we approach FI. Much better than the 12z. Clutching at straws? Maybe, but at least it's different!

In fact, a Greeny high and a direct northerly is not a million miles form that chart at 132!

Not in this run, but enough to keep me coming back for more. 

Is there an AA version of weather/snow hunters anonymous? Is the SACRA membership still open?

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As Winters go I don't remember one that promised so much and delivered so little. The grass hasnt stopped growing here all season and the daffodils are in full bloom. Aswell as being mild it's been very quiet on the storm front also. I think if you were to use one word to sum it up few would argue with the term 'boring'.

As for longe range forecasts the argument is futile for me. They're inaccurate most of the time and as the phrase goes a broken clock is still right twice a day! In other words luck can sometimes prove an lrf to be right.

But we all know we will do it all again next year lol!!

 

Edited by January Snowstorm
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1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

As Winters go I don't remember one that promised so much and delivered so little. The grass hasnt stopped growing here all season and the daffodils are in full bloom. Aswell as being mild it's been very quiet on the storm front also. I think if you were to use one word to sum it up few would argue with the term 'boring'.

 

Boring is better than wet and windy (by miles!)

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One straw to clutch at is that we know how quick the models can switch!

we are relying on the mjo here now to give us one last hurrah,feb 22nd>

then i will throw my t'shirt in:crazy:

Edited by Allseasons-si
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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

we are relying on the mjo here now to give us one last hurrah,feb 22nd>

Models do not seem interested at the moment.  One hope is they have overreacted to the mild pattern and something more interesting will crop up.

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To get very cold weather here in the UK is a memorable event and I live in (the snow usual suspects) Scotland. So I don't expect real cold, but I do enjoy it a lot when it happens. That it's a rarity, is the reason why I am here. Were this the 10th winter in a row of being blocked in by snow and nothing in the shops, perhaps I wouldn't like it. OK I admit that's a lie.

The hunt for UK cold is always a game where the odds are stacked against you, why partake in it if you don't enjoy the hunt?, success or failure, it's lively, entertaining and informative in here. Many seem worn out. The weather doesn't owe us anything. My heart may sink a little when charts show little hope but I know tomorrow there is always another run and further chances. Keep hope coldies. Just don't expect too much.

When the weather decides winters is over I will look forward to Spring. Winter is not over yet though.

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1 minute ago, sunnijim said:

When all else fails,pub run included,I bring you all hope...

That Bastian of British journalistic standard

The Daily star front page tonight

1562861.jpg

came up on my facebook from the Sun, someone shared it, I replied 15 degrees this week, wet 11 degrees next week

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13 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

When all else fails,pub run included,I bring you all hope...

That Bastian of British journalistic standard

The Daily star front page tonight

1562861.jpg

B&q have just announced that they are reducing there BBQ'S to half price due to the BFTE later next week,i am opening an early BBQ day if anyone is interested,

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And guess what is still anchored to our West at 384.

image.thumb.png.341d582e7a45cb566214f45d14ecd4a2.png

Actually a lot of members look really promising but its too many consecutive runs now with little actual undercutting and E'ly or even those very high lat Greenland / Arctic cut off blocks with a NE flow, you know - the ones you find a lot in the extended modelling but verifies or gets into the reliable on a big fat zero occasions, well there isn't even that much modelling of it anymore, in short, you would think now that more members would be showing brutal cold if it were likely to happen.

 

image.thumb.png.872c76d4f7b19e85002f720046559fd0.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Just when you think it couldn't get any worse along comes the 18Z. Probably one of the most dreadful runs for cold I have ever seen along with the GEFS ensembles.

Even im thinking of taking a break for a few days from viewing this ghastly output. I don't think I have ever seen such a difference between what was promised and what is being predicred since I started viewing the models on the internet. This isn't a dig at any members here but generally towards long range models, tweets, Met O forecasts etc.

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