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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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14 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Pretty sure they nailed the 2010 December cold spell pretty well also. I understand where your coming from and understand your frustration, but on the evidence of things it's probably a little unfair to single them out. 

They did indeed.  They were absolutely spot on with December 2010.

Edited by Don

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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The met office long range forecasts have been no far wider than the mark than most other weather organisations!! 30 day forecasts are still very much an infancy and they would admit far more work and research needs to be done. It only just goes to show how the simplest of things can throw the best of signals array. Cast yourself back to last year's BFTE, the mett were flagging it up for several weeks before the event. Pretty sure they nailed the 2010 December cold spell pretty well also. I understand where your coming from and understand your frustration, but on the evidence of things it's probably a little unfair to single them out. 

Yes, I accept that other Meteorological Agencies haven't faired any better, but I class the Met Office as one of the best agencies around and so hold them to a much higher standard, so it is a real shame that even they have succumbed to this Winter.

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12 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

This will do the trick, removed from car and chucked back in the garage for another season today!

20190211_154050.jpg

Plenty of time for sledging though...mostly during the upcoming Ashes test series...

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12 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

This will do the trick, removed from car and chucked back in the garage for another season today!

20190211_154050.jpg

Rrrrrr, reverse physcology, let's just hope your goona need it back real soon 👍

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No more MO chat. Thanks.

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Looking at tonights ECM and EPS if* thats where we are heading in the 8-10 day range and beyond, I would imagine the ridge over the uk/Europe would have more of a chance to ridge north as the trough in the mid Atlantic digs quite a way south. 

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Evening all

just observing all the models over the last few days inc anom's ens etc,there is no sugarcoating this at the moment,the models look vile BUT what i have noticed recently is that the trough is extending further south into central atlantic creating more of an amplified pattern of WAA ahead of it to our N//NE,quiet a few ens show this,this at(yes i know)+10 days away,we have to take into account the lag effect of the mjo Phase 8 but we have to get through Phase 6-7(uk/Scandi high)

the means show this trough dig into the Atlantic with amp ridge ahead but take these as a broadbrush

ecn/gefs at day ten

EDH1-240.thumb.GIF.bdc21394cbbf6ded31f72c14082c2dd4.GIFgensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.9a3effe7004238d7a1b4112cce49f3bb.png

eps/gefs+ext gefs

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.7c8c63322a6e4cf1cf068a5af0262140.pnggfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.6ec5d650ebf3febe589b364718587ff0.pnggfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.8cc5e1c128dc230c4a3893d730a410b0.png

cpc days8-14 and NAO

814day_03.thumb.gif.c4150df7261cc83790836aa145ae163a.gifnao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f1eabcef43e583ac213a75205e1ebe18.gif

it will be interesting to see how amplified this pattern evolves,remember,...a block can be hard to shift and with a favourable amplified Phase 8 mjo signal,this could be the one,Greenland last stop!!!?

meanwhile,enjoy the pleasant springlike weather this week

i will get my coat ,t'shirt😁

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15 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello folks .... The European high is not going anywhere in a hurry both models show it remaining stubborn ,and once this synoptic scenario occurs it can be with us for many days even weeks. The Atlantic tries to come in , but with little impact.  Looks like Winter is going out very gently.....😔

ecmt850.240-7.png

h850t850eu.webp

Err, with all due respect, don't think I'd call that a European High though? Looks like it's transferring to Scandinavia anyway, to me?

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f1eabcef43e583ac213a75205e1ebe18.gif

 

That NAO forecast looks a bit more interesting than it has done for a while.

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This is model discussion thread, NOT a weather organisation discussion one. There are plenty of other places for chat about it.

Edited by Mapantz

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3 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Err, with all due respect, don't think I'd call that a European High though? Looks like it's transferring to Scandinavia anyway, to me?

Regards,

Tom. 

Good call, hence the risk of colder Conditions later this month as it PERHAPS transfers N/NE

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40 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We will just have to hope the EC 46 shows something around 5th - 15th March.

When!!!

next year lol

it has been showing these northern blockings for weeks and weeks on end and my trust for these is waining thin,i am not moaning but i am stating the fact

shirley they must get them right one day....

index.thumb.jpg.6e7565d2cca1fc9e1a79a3c63d9d915b.jpg

...in summer😜

 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No change on my musings from last night ....ec46 week 3 at 10pm will be watched for the scandi sausage and undercut 

How confident are you it will verify and give us wintry uppers nirvana?

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I am going to do my pub run watch for early changes of interest, as the winter draws to a close, can we drag one more chase for cold from the ashes of summer warmth? It's very unlikely now, but it's my addiction, so let's do this thang!

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4 hours ago, Weathizard said:

February very rarely delivers, I mean I’m only in my twenties but down here I think I can only think or one or 2 proper snow falls in February, even March has more. Quite often an anticyclonic month if my memory serves me.

Nothing much to talk about amongst the models this afternoon, very poor output if any sustained cold is what you’re after, hopefully the CFS has something at 750 hours for us lol 😂 

Well before that😁

06z and 12z

anim_zer0.thumb.gif.c8fe3a41a1864c84f64076c443f8958d.gifanim_zft8.thumb.gif.b95ce1955c728bb529d8d0489d72a4cd.gif

 

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How confident are you it will verify and give us wintry uppers nirvana?

I think BA is playing the law of averages. Given we've hit the 5% chance of a cold spell not happening on too many occasions, its about time that we hit the 5% chance of a mild spell not happening.

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No change on my musings from last night ....ec46 week 3 at 10pm will be watched for the scandi sausage and undercut 

How long is this sausage going to take processing...

i am hungry...

for snow😁

Edited by Allseasons-si

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

How long is this sausage going to take processing...

i am hungry...

for snow😁

image.thumb.png.b632b71b36b8a3c2a4ecff41d27e4dac.png I think by the look on their faces, the undercut is approaching in the distance.

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19 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

How long is this sausage going to take processing...

i am hungry...

for snow😁

Will probably be BBQ by the time it arrives .........

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We just need to get more amplitude north ahead of the trough in the atlantic,if we get the height's high enough(past N/uk)then we will get the undercut closing the height's off to our north,some ens have been showing this

i have a bail of straw to clutch onto as we still have time,i just want to see some good ol charts popping up now instead of watching the soaps our lass keeps on watching😱

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We just need to get more amplitude north ahead of the trough in the atlantic,if we get the height's high enough(past N/uk)then we will get the undercut closing the height's off to our north,some ens have been showing this

i have a bail of straw to clutch onto as we still have time,i just want to see some good ol charts popping up now instead of watching the soaps our lass keeps on watching😱

Sadly according to the pub run, now out to 96 hours, and despite some earlier amplification north of us, it's actually got worse!!! Deepening lows to our north and a movement of the PV slice to our locality! BOOOO the pub run!

 

A God-awful bloody run!

Edited by Rocheydub

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1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Sadly according to the pub run, now out to 96 hours, and despite some earlier amplification north of us, it's actually got worse!!! Deepening lows to our north and a movement of the PV slice to our locality! BOOOO the pub run!

Not much change there and there won't be

i am looking at day 10+ for interest🤣

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