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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Back to the hunt for cold, seems to be a trend from the 00z/06z GEFS to drop heights across SW Europe as Atlantic troughing digs SE past the Azores as the jet splits over the Atlantic because of the ridging over Europe, with southern arm dropping SE into Morocco and northern arm going east across Iceland to Scandinavia, any deep cold kept well at bay by the northern arm though.

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29 minutes ago, Azazel said:

No worries, thank you for clarifying.

Does anyone know if there will be a "heat hunt - models and chat thread" come March/April?

you will find that rather like migratory birds, 90% of the cold weather posters disappear from March to November! But still a lot of folk interested in warm/hot spells, t-storms etc here in summer

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32 minutes ago, Azazel said:

90 percent of the posts in here are for cold charts 3000 hours away. 

I hope not......that would be 16th June :oldgrin::cold::shok:

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25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As winter begins to wain we must remind outselves 'peak' cold availability from the N/NE/E is still on tap for another 3-4 weeks- so although the suns height does temper any daytime low maxima - we are still in the game.

Im drawn to the nice sight of the PV stretched south into Scandi around day 9 & this should continue to be out focus if we believe 18/19 can squeeze another cold spell - 06z was close but no cigar....

If I find out who it is that's taken all our cigars this winter I'll give them a piece of my mind, and trust me, it wont be pleasant! :oldangry::oldlaugh:

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Lovely, pleasant weather today. Clear skies and a gentle breeze, feeling pleasantly warm in the sun. As far as I’m concerned, this failed winter can do one. I’m looking forward to more days like this. 

 

Also looking forward to just having one model discussion thread again, so it’s not bias on one specific weather pattern, with the other thread being near deserted/too strict. 

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48 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As winter begins to wain we must remind outselves 'peak' cold availability from the N/NE/E is still on tap for another 3-4 weeks- so although the suns height does temper any daytime low maxima - we are still in the game.

Im drawn to the nice sight of the PV stretched south into Scandi around day 9 & this should continue to be out focus if we believe 18/19 can squeeze another cold spell - 06z was close but no cigar....

Thanks Steve. A sensible post outlining the fact that cold is still available to us if we can achieve the right synoptics. 

Bearing in mind that anything beyond 144 is FI even in the current seemingly slow changing set up. There is still in my mind plenty to play for.. I,m not hunting long lasting deep cold now but possibilities of heavy snowfall and that is a far from vain hope between mid Feb and mid march.

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gfs-7-132.png?12
A miserable weekend for the North on this run, but the sun is out for the south of the M4

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

As winter begins to wain we must remind outselves 'peak' cold availability from the N/NE/E is still on tap for another 3-4 weeks- so although the suns height does temper any daytime low maxima - we are still in the game.

Im drawn to the nice sight of the PV stretched south into Scandi around day 9 & this should continue to be out focus if we believe 18/19 can squeeze another cold spell - 06z was close but no cigar....

Unfortunately, we'll be lucky to get a dog end out of the 12z never mind a cigar! It's like a crap film, you're determined to watch it through hoping to God the end will be better.

 

Edit...It didn't! Surely gfs has lost the plot with this chart...southerly gale??

GFSOPEU12_276_1.png

Edited by KTtom

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Interestingly the SST this week have moved in direction towards anomaly that resembles  Atlantic Tripole a bit more, this along with a possible MJO phase 8 could contribute to -NAO towards the end of Feb. we will see

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

NAO analysis.png

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3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Interestingly the SST this week have moved in direction towards anomaly that resembles  Atlantic Tripole a bit more, this along with a possible MJO phase 8 could contribute to -NAO towards the end of Feb. we will see

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

NAO analysis.png

Could be another wet March if that were the case then? Southerly tracking lows and all that.

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A quick holiday on the Med methinks?:drinks:

image.thumb.png.21f3da8b2c036a5dda7a3d78931346c7.png

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awful sums up this afternoons gfs call it what you want euro hp or bartlett hp for at least the next 10 days we are stuck with this slug. not many februarys  that i can think of as bad as this one truly shocking

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3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I still recall being mocked, for suggesting temps of 15, in January 2003...I think it got to 18, somewhere near Aberdeen (Aboyne?)...Don't underestimate the Fohn effect...?🤓

Indeed its a realistic forecast for 15C+ later this week and those who are pointing this out should be cut a bit of slack....

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5 minutes ago, igloo said:

awful sums up this afternoons gfs call it what you want euro hp or bartlett hp for at least the next 10 days we are stuck with this slug. not many februarys  that i can think of as bad as this one truly shocking

February very rarely delivers, I mean I’m only in my twenties but down here I think I can only think or one or 2 proper snow falls in February, even March has more. Quite often an anticyclonic month if my memory serves me.

Nothing much to talk about amongst the models this afternoon, very poor output if any sustained cold is what you’re after, hopefully the CFS has something at 750 hours for us lol 😂 

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5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No, but they tied in with a lot of the cold ramping that went on in here which people find acceptable but moan when people post mild charts.

Well you do have to applaud the high skill levels and results of those forever suggesting that we will experience mild weather and south westerly winds.

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21 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Could be another wet March if that were the case then? Southerly tracking lows and all that.

Bear in mind they represent change in anomalies rather then the SST anomalies themselves. Well spotted though and its small steps in the right direction.

I think the lower heights around the Azores are changing things. The westerlies on the southern flank from any low pressure systems are pushing warm air towards the African coast. SST's on the coast of Africa are strongly linked with SSTs over the NW North Atlantic so you can see the tripole pattern in the change of anomalies.

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Interesting development to our N/NE as per met musings which could flip to cold quickly.

Flattened in low res but worth noting

anim_avx2.gif

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20 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfseu-0-276.png?12

With high Pressure still forcast o be around the UK anything could happen

Yes, we have seen repeated efforts at attempts to build heights to the N-NW. Usually at this time of year, with a weakened PV, I would be hopeful of maybe something. As you say, at least there is the chance, rather than a flat no-hope flow.

See how it plays out...

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16 minutes ago, aitchbomb said:

Well you do have to applaud the high skill levels and results of those forever suggesting that we will experience mild weather and south westerly winds.

I think that the highest skill-level award should go to all those who've been predicting Snowmageddon to occur, by Day 10, ever since the end of October...and got it right?👍

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23 minutes ago, aitchbomb said:

Well you do have to applaud the high skill levels and results of those forever suggesting that we will experience mild weather and south westerly winds.

I did, but wouldn't say skill, I'm only amateur that knows basics

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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From one extreme to another(GEFS)  🙂

gens-3-1-384.png

gens-12-1-384.png

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