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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whats a WWB please?

Westerly wind bursts 

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At the end of the day the computer models are just that. Computers they predict what the weather will be like (or try too) so no one model is king or boss or whatever they are all the same and all try and do the same job but like humans will get it wrong especially when looking to far in advance. Yes this winter (so far) has been pretty dump tbh but it’s just luck really as to where pattens set up, yes there obviously is more to it than that but I genuinely believe that we have just been very unlucky this winter.

nobody can rule out a real cold blast before the middle of March despite the models not looking great atm the will change dramatically within the next week for better or worse. 

Not really sure why iv posted this waffle but just some comments tonight have interrupted my match of the day for me to post this.

anyway I’ll be back on here tomorrow to see if there’s any changes. Why? Because I’m sad and an addict lol

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4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

At the end of the day the computer models are just that. Computers they predict what the weather will be like (or try too) so no one model is king or boss or whatever they are all the same and all try and do the same job but like humans will get it wrong especially when looking to far in advance. Yes this winter (so far) has been pretty dump tbh but it’s just luck really as to where pattens set up, yes there obviously is more to it than that but I genuinely believe that we have just been very unlucky this winter.

nobody can rule out a real cold blast before the middle of March despite the models not looking great atm the will change dramatically within the next week for better or worse. 

Not really sure why iv posted this waffle but just some comments tonight have interrupted my match of the day for me to post this.

anyway I’ll be back on here tomorrow to see if there’s any changes. Why? Because I’m sad and an addict lol

Great Post. My god you must be an addict if it interrupted match of the day! 👍

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GEFS 18z MAJOR UPGRADE ALERT.

going to be some stonker flatliners by the end.

image.thumb.png.57d537db1bfcb778cb584064b5b4d308.png

 

That was the 12z.

 

18z 

image.thumb.png.b56c7b5559904d96db1f8cb5d2250e00.png

Almost a cluster 1 feel about the GEFS mean.

image.thumb.png.74e510c6c19a774eb5541f67ffe57b20.png

 

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS 18z MAJOR UPGRADE ALERT.

going to be some stonker flatliners by the end.

 

Yeah but it’s all by the end. The end never seems to make it to the start that’s the problem. At some point they will and I suppose you just never no tonight could be the trend setter but I doubt it

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1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Yeah but it’s all by the end. The end never seems to make it to the start that’s the problem. At some point they will and I suppose you just never no tonight could be the trend setter but I doubt it

TBF though the trend was only just into the second page of meteociel (ie-192 onwards), i posted when it was on about 230, there were a lot more ridges looking like they might gain enough latitude, i was hoping for more -10c on the graph but still an improvement.

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I know the MJO has been predicted to enter phase 8 but it’s being overridden by something else which is throwing the nwp this winter. There has been no cohesion between output within 3 days let alone 6-10 days so for me it could flip, so until this coming week is over I will remain interested in the output. 

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The Atmosphere is not behaving like EL Nino this winter. So much talk of Modoki back in October over in US rampers camp. With this enhanced subtropical ridging with both Azores high and Euro high to conclude most of the February we can say it has more of a LA Nina footprint then EL Nino. This even before we start talking about downwelling of negative zonal winds, it looks like it barely reached troposphere.A huge contrast against Baldwin Dunkerton. This winter turns out as a great example not to underestimate the stochastic nature of atmosphere.

1445485457_GFSNAM.png.cc48401aa0162d972f186f2fd8e4f863.png

baldwin_fig2 (1).jpg

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11 hours ago, Don said:

I’ll give it until next weekend before properly throwing the towel in!

All the models are going for a quiet settled week,think I'll go to sleepnow till someone wakes me up when there is something more exciting within 7 days showing on the chart runs,night night

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4 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

All the models are going for a quiet settled week,think I'll go to sleepnow till someone wakes me up when there is something more exciting within 7 days showing on the chart runs,night night

See you in November. Sleep well.

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10 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

All the models are going for a quiet settled week,think I'll go to sleepnow till someone wakes me up when there is something more exciting within 7 days showing on the chart runs,night night

good next week, but turning vile holiday week on EC and GFS

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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 turning vile holiday week on EC and GFS

Fear not, Darren Bett is grinning and the background signals are still looking GREAT!!..and the week ahead looks mild and benign with temps around 11-12c..😉

00_384_uk2mtmp.png

00_384_mslp850.png

00_384_ukthickness850.png

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Just popped in to drop off a wash basket for the towels. (😭)

I can get them laundered for next week in case they're needed (🤞) or you can pick them up in November (❄🏃‍♂️🏃‍♀️).

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Deleted, posted in wrong thread. Strewth I'll be excommunicated

 

Edited by knocker

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FV3 showing what is still the art of the possible this morning with a great run, here T222

image.thumb.jpg.dd28feb8df1e258339421bbadda34e58.jpg

Leading to this at T360:

image.thumb.jpg.9365dc85277dd5e1898b211521ab8981.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.650b99c0240088d33ff59efe15e99dd4.jpg

Still the minority solution with no real support from the other main models, but it does warrant keeping an eye open for.

Edited by Mike Poole

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9 hours ago, Singularity said:

The MJO P8-driven cross polar ridge from the Pacific is desperately trying to at last break the negative NAO drought in the 8+ day range but somehow even with a massive WWB in the Central Pacific they still struggle to show a clear ascendency of a more Nino-like pattern; that Griceland High ‘one of largest’ EPS cluster being the best they’ve mustered today with the det runs failing to represent anything of the typical magnitude of HLB development NW of the UK. ECM’s collapse back to a big subtropical ridge setup D9-D10 was especially perplexing.

The icon and gfsp keep us on our toes and the NH is most definitely going to remain in a highly amplified state for the next fortnight 

we just can’t shake off the euro heights. Until I see some evidence from the fi ec op or eps spread that there is at least a propensity to drive some of the split flow into Europe to our south for more than the odd few hours then I remain of the opinion that the low uppers or cold pools we seek will not appear over here. 

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32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 showing what is still the art of the possible this morning with a great run, here T222

image.thumb.jpg.dd28feb8df1e258339421bbadda34e58.jpg

Leading to this at T360:

image.thumb.jpg.9365dc85277dd5e1898b211521ab8981.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.650b99c0240088d33ff59efe15e99dd4.jpg

Still the minority solution with no real support from the other main models, but it does warrant keeping an eye open for.

That’s a classic phase 8 response mike .....some of the eps members must be in that place to create the cluster yesterday evening but it’s currently lacking consistency or momentum. 

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UKMO extended keeps the mild feel going this morning dry for the majority but the far west are close to a big area of low pressure so some rain/showers is possible here

ukm2.2019021700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.2f1dace9fe572b464be795ecdca81187.png

The ECM mean is pretty similar to previous runs mild air peaking on Friday afterwards a steady climb down through the remainder of the run

London

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.dd75a67286d397b6aabf2759cf4e07be.png

Southern Scotland the mean drops below zero around D9/10

sco.thumb.png.fdf7a9e43b3f4e49651ec8939be02293.png

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Was thinking we could open a hunt for mild thread but then again we don’t need to hunt for that do we, it’s on our doorstep 99% of the time 🤬

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15 minutes ago, West is Best said:

A friend of mine wrote a bestselling book. It could have been about today's GFS, UKMO and ECMWF model runs.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Winter-Suspense-Thriller-really-ebook/dp/B00DNA49WO

That's a goddam awful set of runs for cold 🙄

Only straw to clutch is the GFS Para continues with its GH scenario and dare I say very 1978/79ish. I think virtually all of yesterdays Para runs went with the GH outlook.

 

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The SSW only increased the probability of a cold spell remember with easterly outbreak probability y going up to around 25%than the normal 5% chance  for each winter 

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20 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

 

Im still hopeful for late Feb, but its scraps off the table if honest.

By that time, unless we see something like last march, the sun will do a lot of damage to any snowcover.

Mid Dec to Mid Jan always my optimum dates.

Edited by Polar Maritime
Snipped removed quote.

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