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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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58 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

What?..

Sticking 2 my guns as i have been..in regards to the most noted part of winter likely late feb/early march..

Ive also supplied ample data/reasons/exactions/opinions to the steak..on numerous occasions!..

And will contintue all those notions.

Its a shame some are not seeing what myself..is seeing because the mood would likely be more free-flowing...rather than 'wrist slashing'..

Im buisey today in my other life!!!!

But i will stick up..as per an analysis/aligned with data an opinion hopefully sometime later...

I think the issue is not that you have been sticking to yours guns, but keep telling people to expect proper winter weather in 10 to 14 days. Then keep changing the dates, just like today. 

I really don't mind people sticking to their guns, it is the hunt for cold thread after all. However, nobody here has forecast this winter in any confidence and so it is pointless telling people to expect wintry weather any time soon.

No more ramping please.

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The negativity in this thread is more than justified. Im not sure many of us in here really get on board in the hunt for snow and cold for a week or two chase, only to be rewarded with a hard frost.

Its like looking forward to going out to a nice restaurant and being served a ready meal with tinned food, despite the money you paid where you have invested in the experience; just like we invest our time looking for cold weather.

The high amplitude phase 8 mjo is our last hope in all honesty. End of the month/early March most likely response... hopefully.

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Well, the model ensemble guidance has been chopping and changing as much as the operationals over the last week, just when it starts to look promising in the hunt for cold, a new signal develops in the starting data which takes model guidance on a route away from the promising signs - been the story of the winter really, despite background drivers suggesting hope. Our last chance hope for the remainder of meteorological winter is the MJO wave passing through phases 7-1 at decent amplitude - which normally forces changes in the upper patterns to promote blocking at higher latitudes - with a lag of 10-14 days - we may not see this potential until the closing days of February.

In the meantime, a last hurrah of wintriness on Sunday, as low drops down from the north with colder air cutting in behind perhaps giving a wintry mix, as suggested by ECMWF Sunday night for England and Wales

ECMWF_048_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.thumb.png.443ae1282b942ee740a37513e1b1b7a8.pngECMWF_054_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.thumb.png.504044fd1cb58d07bec9f31b840acb59.png

 

Then I'm afraid it's back to late December / early January pattern of high pressure dominating - fairly mild sunny days and chilly nights under clear skies until we see the pattern shaken up by something, probably the MJO.

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You would have to say the models correctly haven't promised anything all Winter. It's been dominated by "background signals" which were a total fail. Of course it kept us positive and I expect most of us would have been well depressed last Christmas if we knew the 3 weeks of anticlonic gloom was going to lead to nought overall!! My thoughts on the ssw is that as is usual it affected the weather very quickly and the beneficiary was Austria/Germany region. Think trucks jack knifing not really more like daffodils and daisies in January lol

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The repeating pattern I was referring to:

T60>>gfseu-0-60.thumb.png.d0e62029feb118ee50fa012a34cf3474.png 300 h later>>gfseu-0-360.thumb.png.5f14ff54faba1d25c74040626f762d44.png

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM mean is getting milder for the period around the 14th/15th yesterday 12z it was around +5 today 00z it is around +7

Afterwards a gradual fall back down closer to the average but anything really cold remains beyond D10

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.f7a85faf0e910b6c3113c098c072981a.png

The op is on the mild side of the mean towards the end as per the 12z

The mean has been moving for a few days now you posted 3 charts the other day that showed it.

intrested to see where the high is sitting because upper air temps may not transfer to ground temps 

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2 hours ago, snowspotter said:

Well I suggest this thread is retired.  The climate has changed to such an extent that I would go so far as to say the models , particularly long range are now not really of much use . I was looking at historical northern hemisphere winter charts the other day and I am of the opinion that the cold air has diminished over arctic areas . Consequently (my gut feeling) there is simply less colder air to make it to our latitude . If for example temperatures in the Arctic  are say 3c warmer than it doesn’t take much science to realise that whatever airmass arrives will be up to that warmer. Result clearly obvious in recent summers particularly. The signals were pointing to a cold winter and northern blocking yet there has been none. At best that means the models are seriously flawed at worst the planet is in serious trouble and they are not picking up on it . With regards to this so called winter . It’s been the worst by a country mile with the model performance . All rather embarrassing when I’ve told friends and family the science behind what was going to happen. I seriously think this winter has had it now . The next two weeks look like nothing.I suggest people give up on it . I for one a massive snow lover have realised this and I am now looking forward to spring . How about a hunt for spring thread ? Having posted this the 6z will probably bring the beast in at 144hrs ! 

Firstly climatology and meteorology are to different ball games, namely the first is a long term prediction model, the second a short term here and now prediction, if Arctic ice is in such decline and I hesitate, because in certain locations its actually inclining!! The time to worry would be when we no longer see Arctic air masses taking residence over the NW Canadian territorys and the siberian peninsula. Many a scientist as mysteriously gone into hiding over the last 20 years, some saying in the 1980s there indeed would be no arctic ice shelf left by 2010 So many over riding background signals have left the models in a state of shock, perhaps in a changing climate new input and data will need to be inputed to help them cope with a much wilder and fluctuating climate!! But hey this is one for a future climate chat thread. Bit surprised about the folk throwing in the towel this morning as well, the same ones who were posting great looking charts yesterday evening are now saying, see you in November. Why November? That's an even less interesting time than now!! Pretty sure the met will be giving a decent update again today regarding a switch to colder themes today, in the meantime folk..... Breath in through your nose for several seconds... Then breath out through your mouth! If that fails try diazepam!! 👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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4 minutes ago, IDO said:

The repeating pattern I was referring to:

T60>>gfseu-0-60.thumb.png.d0e62029feb118ee50fa012a34cf3474.png 300 h later>>gfseu-0-360.thumb.png.5f14ff54faba1d25c74040626f762d44.png

If that’s the case then the pattern is backing west

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Well that (should it verify:oldrofl:) takes us out to February 25th...The Beast'd better be good!:help:

image.thumb.png.cc52b67d1190a3d21f8037930319b941.pngimage.thumb.png.27a0e96b0ecc6f440fe0093c3bbc9548.png  

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12 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

You would have to say the models correctly haven't promised anything all Winter. It's been dominated by "background signals" which were a total fail. Of course it kept us positive and I expect most of us would have been well depressed last Christmas if we knew the 3 weeks of anticlonic gloom was going to lead to nought overall!! My thoughts on the ssw is that as is usual it affected the weather very quickly and the beneficiary was Austria/Germany region. Think trucks jack knifing not really more like daffodils and daisies in January lol

Yes, that long spell of gloom was tiresome. I suppose at least some did well last week. Not here on the Essex / Suffolk border though. As always happens for some in a cold spell.

I think we'll still have a cold shot around early March (MJO 8 etc.) but whether it's memorable? We'll soon be fighting the changing seasons - average temperatures begin an inexorable climb from about 20th Feb. Maybe, maybe not this time.

Edited by Steve C

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8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Firstly climatology and meteorology are to different ball games, namely the first is a long term prediction model, the second a short term here and now prediction, if Arctic ice is in such decline and I hesitate, because in certain locations its actually inclining!! The time to worry would be when we no longer see Arctic air masses taking residence over the NW Canadian territorys and the siberian peninsula. Many a scientist as mysteriously gone into hiding over the last 20 years, some saying in the 1980s there indeed would be no arctic ice shelf left!! So many over riding background signals have left the models in a state of shock, perhaps in a changing climate new input and data will need to be inputed to help them cope with a much wilder and fluctuating climate!! But hey this is one for a future climate chat thread. Bit surprised about the folk throwing in the towel this morning as well, the same ones who were posting great looking charts yesterday evening are now saying, see you in November. Why November? That's an even less interesting time than now!! Pretty sure the met will be giving a decent update again today regarding a switch to colder themes today, in the meantime folk..... Breath in through your nose for several seconds... Then breath out through your mouth! If that fails try diazepam!! 👍

I would be very interested in the names of the Climatologists who have gone into hiding  and could you be more specific vis  those and Arctic sea ice. Thanks

Edited by knocker

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Bearing in mind that last March was the snowiest of any month (27cms) at my location  since the amazing December of 2010 I shall not be throwing in the towel anytime soon in the hunt for cold and snow.

Didn't,t last winter teach anyone anything?

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 MJO composite charts need recalibrate for purple headed yougart slinger we are in a new Era now.

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Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Bearing in mind that last March was the snowiest of any month (27cms) at my location  since the amazing December of 2010 I shall not be throwing in the towel anytime soon in the hunt for cold and snow.

Didn't,t last winter teach anyone anything?

Much like the Nov 2010 once in a lifetime event, last year's March may never be repeated in my lifetime again.

That may have been its lesson, never again!

 

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18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well that (should it verify) takes us out to February 25th...The Beast'd better be good!

image.thumb.png.cc52b67d1190a3d21f8037930319b941.pngimage.thumb.png.27a0e96b0ecc6f440fe0093c3bbc9548.png  

The Azores/Iberian high conveyor belt in full swing there! To be honest at this point i’d take dry and relatively ‘warm’ if we can’t salvage this winter then i’ll take a few weeks of lower energy bills! 

Edited by Weathizard

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7 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Bearing in mind that last March was the snowiest of any month (27cms) at my location  since the amazing December of 2010 I shall not be throwing in the towel anytime soon in the hunt for cold and snow.

Didn't,t last winter teach anyone anything?

I don't think many are throwing in the towel. After all, in my location, we had a weekend of lying (and hardly thawing) snow in late March 2013. Never thought I'd ever see that but tbh the memorable part was the lateness. If the snow had been in February I'd probably have forgotten it by now (or at least the timing)

My preference for snow is for a reasonable cover that lies for several days at least. A covering that immediately turns to slush has zero interest for me. 

So no throwing in the towel but for my preference, the clock is very much ticking. 🙂

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6 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Bearing in mind that last March was the snowiest of any month (27cms) at my location  since the amazing December of 2010 I shall not be throwing in the towel anytime soon in the hunt for cold and snow.

Didn't,t last winter teach anyone anything?

Yes, it shows that March can still deliver but the synoptics have to be exceptional. What we saw last year was a rareity.

This winter has been strange and seems to have had most forecasters perplexed given the background signals in place.

It’s easy to knee jerk into a winter is over post but the reality is it is nearly over and for many it hasn’t delivered. We’re likely to lose the best part of Feb by the looks of it to a benign high pressure with an early taste of spring. Perhaps we’ll get lucky with a cold spell at the end but I’m no longer confident even if the MJO is looking favourable. 

Other factors seem to be overriding/interacting this year to confound expected Synoptics.

its been a disappointing and a boring winter from my back yard.

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1 hour ago, Jason74 said:

Read a post on Facebook yesterday that the jet stream is below the equator and has been since the 23rd January 2019? Does anyone know whether this really is true and/or correct? And if so, what effect this would have upon the weather?

Sounds like cobblers to me.

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2 minutes ago, Stephen W said:

Yes, it shows that March can still deliver but the synoptics have to be exceptional. What we saw last year was a rareity.

This winter has been strange and seems to have had most forecasters perplexed given the background signals in place.

It’s easy to knee jerk into a winter is over post but the reality is it is nearly over and for many it hasn’t delivered. We’re likely to lose the best part of Feb by the looks of it to a benign high pressure with an early taste of spring. Perhaps we’ll get lucky with a cold spell at the end but I’m no longer confident even if the MJO is looking favourable. 

Other factors seem to be overriding/interacting this year to confound expected Synoptics.

its been a disappointing and a boring winter from my back yard.

I suppose it's all about expectations. Bearing in mind my location I,m happy with one decent covering of Snow in a winter. 

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1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

According to that chart it's definitely receding. Just like my hair now.

Doesn't this help us though - I thought the more ice lost in the Arctic in summer, the greater the chance of blocking?

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

ice.thumb.JPG.81d02b8043713ddd97b0e234fb1a0a93.JPG

Yes you can show a graph that is showing ice decline over a 40 year period. These occurances have happened over many thousands of years. This doesn't prove that if we run the clock forward say 100 years, we will indeed have even less Arctic ice! If we are all gonna start playing up the global warming, no ice shelf left, then we may as well knock this hunt for cold thread on the head, as it won't be possible. Just maybe if the graph you show me proves correct longterm, then perhaps all that melting ice will serve to switch of the gulf stream in the Atlantic ocean, bringing another major cooling trend. Thanks for the graph though. We are all entitled to our opinions! Cheers 

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That's enough please. There are far too many off-topic posts on here this morning. There are other threads for met office, climate change, past winter weather, moans, etc., etc..

I asked nicely a few pages back so I'm afraid posts will now start disappearing.

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I want to say its over but with how poorly the models have performed so far I'm not discounting a return to cold yet....we've seen late snow before and it will happen again at some point.

I'll take warm continental air over zonal westerly in a heartbeat, as modeled on the 0z

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2 hours ago, snowspotter said:

 

No not at all . In fact I include the USA.  One polar vortex outbreak in USA does not equal a cold winter. You may as well pick out Siberia . Question overall has the USA and Canada had a colder than average Winter? I'm looking at overall northern hemisphere cold distribution and there is less of it to go round

I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure they've had a lot of cold out breaks, going quite far south at tines too.

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