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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

Has any model been great this winter?

Definitely not they’ve all been poor Don even the Met haven’t been great . Not anyone’s fault just another unpredictable winter . 

Edited by ICE COLD

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1 minute ago, shotski said:

Let’s see how the extended EPS handled today. 

8F5DFD1A-0F0B-4622-9382-3E0F3DF7EE0B.png

874E6FAC-53D4-4CFA-B3E5-C51503A40679.png

You need really to put the anomaly from today up but at that range the ensemble mean might not necessarily be all that useful anyway.

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2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Let’s see how the extended EPS handled today. 

8F5DFD1A-0F0B-4622-9382-3E0F3DF7EE0B.png

874E6FAC-53D4-4CFA-B3E5-C51503A40679.png

Hmm....

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You need really to put the anomaly from today up but at that range the ensemble mean might not necessarily be all that useful anyway.

That’s why there called the extended ? No point in sugar coating it, no one would have predicted a zonal storm from that chart. 

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4 minutes ago, shotski said:

That’s why there called the extended ? No point in sugar coating it, no one would have predicted a zonal storm from that chart. 

Were they consistently showing what you put up there though, and also, have you got the clusters from around that time?

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Evening! The weekend is still very uncertain for Sunday, both models differ from a trough which looks likely to develop, next week looks more certain, turning drier away from the far northwest , but with potential for some strong diurnal temperatures across most of the Uk,  with mild 850s next week could well feel like Winter after sundown , and Spring like during the day...Computer Models , Made by imperfect Humans , so don't expect a perfect model outlook;;;

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Were they consistently showing what you put up there though, and also, have you got the clusters from around that time?

I think my point is that at the moment they swing wildly from run to run so not to take them too literally at that range. 

45DA3D4B-BCFF-4873-BEE7-BBE98A01FBD4.png

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Edit: apart from our neck of the woods that’s pretty decent at that range , typical really 🤔

Edited by shotski

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24 minutes ago, shotski said:

I think my point is that at the moment they swing wildly from run to run so not to take them too literally at that range. 

45DA3D4B-BCFF-4873-BEE7-BBE98A01FBD4.png

4F7288FD-39BE-4BAD-BA87-7A19067E91D8.png

Edit: apart from our neck of the woods that’s pretty decent at that range , typical really 🤔

Yer was gonna say that over the USA it looks very good at that range . It’s just are side that’s not so good . 

EDIT - why is it so much harder to forecast the extended over are side ? Is it the Atlantic ? 

Edited by ICE COLD

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As it stands so far this winter here in south Staffordshire i have not had lying snow. Thats not even an average winter. Tediously poor, outrageous considering the SSW and certain background signals. I also see the MJO index means absolutely nothing for our weather. I know there are no guarantees with good teleconnections but it is notable for the utter failure. What else is at play here folks?

The colder weather shown in the latter stages of the GFS and somewhat the ECM is virtually standard output at around 300h plus range for this time of year. Soon it will be March and this output will turn into mild and dry continental influence. I sure hope that if the SSW does not yield cold, it then produces a summer like last years. More intense heat preferred, though.

We have until mid march to see bitter cold, as per last year, if we are still here in late Feb and the blocked and cold outlook is showing at 300h plus - forget winter- look forward to continental influence in summer ie drier/warmer.

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Has any model been great this winter?

No offence Don you were giving up earlier in the week, throwing the towel in! Models are fed information as are all computers is it not the weather that has been poor?

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Definitely not they’ve all been poor Don even the Met haven’t been great . Not anyone’s fault just another unpredictable winter . 

Predictably disappointing yeah

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Och well, three more upgrades/downgrades, before I return to the torture chamber!😁

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1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! The weekend is still very uncertain for Sunday, both models differ from a trough which looks likely to develop, next week looks more certain, turning drier away from the far northwest , but with potential for some strong diurnal temperatures across most of the Uk,  with mild 850s next week could well feel like Winter after sundown , and Spring like during the day...Computer Models , Made by imperfect Humans , so don't expect a perfect model outlook;;;

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If the weekend is not certain, then to my mind nothing can be certain after it. The lows, waves doing something different, can also change what the high does. Sounds like fl is Sunday for now. The only certainty will be a high somewhere around us. But it's placement and position is still up in the air. 

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5 minutes ago, fazzafarrand said:

No offence Don you were giving up earlier in the week, throwing the towel in! Models are fed information as are all computers is it not the weather that has been poor?

Yes, I was close to throwing in the towel!  However, the models have struggled this winter, but it has been a strange one, so that's not to say they are poor in general.

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Been away a few days and this thread has gone mad as usual, so , are we expecting another cold snap?

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Just now, Sparky68 said:

Been away a few days and this thread has gone mad as usual, so , are we expecting another cold snap?

Anything's possible.

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48 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

As it stands so far this winter here in south Staffordshire i have not had lying snow. Thats not even an average winter. Tediously poor, outrageous considering the SSW and certain background signals. I also see the MJO index means absolutely nothing for our weather. I know there are no guarantees with good teleconnections but it is notable for the utter failure. What else is at play here folks?

The colder weather shown in the latter stages of the GFS and somewhat the ECM is virtually standard output at around 300h plus range for this time of year. Soon it will be March and this output will turn into mild and dry continental influence. I sure hope that if the SSW does not yield cold, it then produces a summer like last years. More intense heat preferred, though.

We have until mid march to see bitter cold, as per last year, if we are still here in late Feb and the blocked and cold outlook is showing at 300h plus - forget winter- look forward to continental influence in summer ie drier/warmer.

hopeless. Heres Brums total

20190123_084838.jpg

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Can’t really bring myself to pretend I’m interested in this chart, it’s a meh day 7 chart...

3C19C173-157D-4831-862A-6408BB840337.png

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3 minutes ago, fazzafarrand said:

No offence Don you were giving up earlier in the week, throwing the towel in! Models are fed information as are all computers is it not the weather that has been poor?

A lot of folk will see model upgrades throughout the day and say let's wait till the met are on board. The following day the met are on board and everyone is happy. Then downgrades come through the day, and folk quickly say the met will have to change there wording tomorow. It's been like that since December, people I suppose wondering why the met have for so long been giving these cold and blocked signals for what it seems like forever. So I wouldn't say anybody as threw in the towel so to speak, more a case of becoming pretty dam frustrated by it all. Even some of the best climatologists and meteorological folk have been left scratching there heads. But like my earlier post states I expext we will no where we stand this time next week. The positioning of high pressure will be crucial. Short term mildness pain could lead to long term colder gain. 👌

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18 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Been away a few days and this thread has gone mad as usual, so , are we expecting another cold snap?

Yeh for sure, it's in the 10-15 day range, but is definitely coming!! 👍

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

Here she comes again at day 9 . 👍

4D46184B-E13C-468B-9A31-A4A180BE14AE.png

Hopefully!

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hopefully!

my guess just another toppler

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The heights to Greenland is certainly worth watching, we need something as the last few days has been thoroughly moribund on here!!!!

image.thumb.png.978e9913f6c8c0311d64c939796d5df4.png

Edit.  The downside is a puffed up Canadian vortex again although it's not impossible it could help to maintain the Greenie high?!

Edited by Ice Day

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

The heights to Greenland is certainly worth watching, we need something as the last few days has been thoroughly moribund on here!!!!

image.thumb.png.978e9913f6c8c0311d64c939796d5df4.png

Need to see those heights drop to the south.

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