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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters tonight D7 - I think we have a block? 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020712_168.

Yep, good sets of clusters which support for a Scandi block thereafter then retrograde of the block, Atlantic troughing making inroads to the SW of UK too.

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sliders or undercutting .......will we have a cold enough continent to deliver snowfall ahead of frontal incursions or sliders ???

at the moment I wouldn’t be too confident ........think we need a proper easterly or nor’easter as the days get longer ...... 

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18 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

I think I'm getting model fatigue lol. I think il give up looking at the models until after the weekend I think and see where we are then. 18z not the best for cold easterly but only one run.

Yep, only one run, the clusters are looking good for some kind of blocking to devolop, never take to much notice of only the operational run, the EPS show much more in depth detail, and bare in mind the 18z as far less data input then say the oz and 12z, so not always wise for this run to put you off. 😉

Edited by Mattwolves

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I think the 18z GFS ordered a summer sun special!!

The ens hint at it being on the mild side at T168... a few suggest that an easterly could develop later though the OP also has a fair amount of support

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ECM showing a Continental flow by mid-Month, Mainly for the South as per Met extended...

ecmt850_240.thumb.png.048ed4a01924788b9f6ded521b7cac44.png

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1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

ECM showing a Continental flow by mid-Month, Mainly for the South as per Met extended...

ecmt850_240.thumb.png.048ed4a01924788b9f6ded521b7cac44.png

That’s yesterday’s chart...

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Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

That’s yesterday’s chart...

Wups, Need more coffee.

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UKMO is the best of the ops IMO.

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9 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A bit of a borefest with Ukmo 0z at 144t with the high stuck over the UK ☹️

65780192-8887-4685-83C9-344BE6A3C60A.gif

That could evolve to something decent from that position.

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Im not even gona bother lookin at the charts cos you just know what rubbish shall be shown for cold lovers and whatever good there is will be yes i will say it........10 Days or more away and stay there!!anyway time for a run💪

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Well I’m liking the output this morning, I know we’re not getting an easterly at days 5 and 6 but the models definitely going the right way . Greenland is the destination 👍

6A76EF61-9A10-4F93-B21F-8286988DEC71.png

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Im not even gona bother lookin at the charts cos you just know what rubbish shall be shown for cold lovers and whatever good there is will be yes i will say it........10 Days or more away and stay there!!anyway time for a run💪

We already have lots of runs out.

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26 minutes ago, shaky said:

Im not even gona bother lookin at the charts cos you just know what rubbish shall be shown for cold lovers and whatever good there is will be yes i will say it........10 Days or more away and stay there!!anyway time for a run💪

Much better than trying to comment on every frame wouldn’t you say? At least it’s not looking great, oh scrap that lol. Think it’s time I started running again. Maybe my new hobby

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Think it's time to open a new 'final' cold hunt thread! Over 400 pages of the same old stuff. Maybe a new thread may bring better luck! 🤣

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For the first time i can recall this winter , the 46 is showing a decent retrogressive signal within week three .....the period 20/25th feb though uppers and T2’s aren’t very responsive so perhaps there is a spread across quite different clusters and ........ some west based neg NAO solutions .........

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Huge change on the eps, potent Easterly all but gone but Greenland / iceland high much stronger possibility.

EDIT : in short they are going to look worse in Graph form at 240 but MAY look spectacularly better in the extended.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Huge change on the eps, potent Easterly all but gone but Greenland / iceland high much stronger possibility.

EDIT : in short they are going to look worse in Graph form at 240 but MAY look spectacularly better in the extended.

Potent? 

When was it potent ?

btw, see my post in the focussed thread - the easterly is still there on the spreads 

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15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

For the first time i can recall this winter , the 46 is showing a decent retrogressive signal within week three .....the period 20/25th feb though uppers and T2’s aren’t very responsive so perhaps there is a spread across quite different clusters and ........ some west based neg NAO solutions .........

It did look a bit west based to be honest, the Atlantic trough being the giveaway.

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Potent? 

When was it potent ?

btw, see my post in the focussed thread - the easterly is still there on the spreads 

it wasn't, it was only a hopecast really with little support, surprised it hasn't been extinguished completely looking at the mean.

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